[Paul]

"According to a recent report from Navigant Research, sales of plug-in electric vehicles in North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific will grow from 352,000 annually in 2014 to 1.8 million in 2023."

Is that enough, is that realistic? I don't know, but it sounds like an impressive growth rate for sure!

Full story: http://electriccarsreport.com/2014/...ic-will-reach-1-8-million-2023/#ixzz3ABbq1g6K

 

[Matt Beard]

That's a steady 20% per year growth. I would be disappointed if EVs don't grow faster than that.

Edit: That's also only about 2% of car sales being EVs. Hopefully we can do better than that!

 

[Paul]

True, looking at it that way it seems a little downbeat, especially given recent rises in the rates of sales of EVs?

 

[EV Rider]

We're still on the upward slog of the curve..tipping point is still coming..

 

[Ajl0ckwood]

If I remember correctly In the 'early days' (2012ish) of EVs they expected 1 million plug ins in the uk alone by 2020 so things aren't looking too good IMO.

 

[Steve Thayne]

Remembering we have still got the Tesla model 3 to come in 2016, the next version of the Leaf we are told will have 200 mile range (in about 18 months a Nissan salesman today told me he had heard), I don't think 1 million is impossible by 2020. Also the rapid charging network still has significant routes planned but not yet built - North Wales etc.

I think a key in selling them may be the marketing. Give people the figure for the amount they would be spending each month - promote the option already there of doing it over 5 years - and spell out how much they would be spending on petrol each month. The sticker price may still put off the mass market without clever marketing.

I suspect and hope though that ev's are close to going viral.....

 

[Paul]

I believe that range and ease/speed of "refuelling" are the only obstacles that stop much faster and wider EV adoption. They would be almost a "no brainer" if they matched ICE cars in those two functions, or at least came very close I'm sure. Price would be able to come down much quicker I imagine due to economies of scale... unless demand outstripped supply and created another reason for high prices!

 

[EV Rider]

I believe that range and ease/speed of "refuelling" are the only obstacles that stop much faster and wider EV adoption. They would be almost a "no brainer" if they matched ICE cars in those two functions, or at least came very close I'm sure. Price would be able to come down much quicker I imagine due to economies of scale... unless demand outstripped supply and created another reason for high prices!

Hands up who needs a car with 400 mile range? It's nice to have that option,but I've never needed it in over 30 years of Driving..Reliability and location of supply is what concerns Me,not range..As for charging duration..do it at home,do it while shopping,at work,on a break during a road trip..most of the time,a car is parked..Let's make use of that..I went out with colleagues after work one evening and plugged in at a nearby carpark..and for the first time after a night out,I came out to a topped up car..it's simple,it's smart..

 

[Paul]

You know this, I know this, but I fear it will be a long while before "man on the street" sees it like that.

 

[Edd Beesley]

Remembering we have still got the Tesla model 3 to come in 2016, the next version of the Leaf we are told will have 200 mile range (in about 18 months a Nissan salesman today told me he had heard),

Sadly I suspect the "200 mile" Leaf is an improvement on today's "124" mile car, and is probably a car with ~36kwh of batteries. A useful improvement, but only likely to get ~130 miles on the motorway.

 

[Steve Thayne]

Well as I am currently getting 100 miles plus from a charge I look forward to getting 200 + ...

But I take your point. The design of the Leaf motor is more efficent at low than high speeds, as opposed to the Zoe which is the opposite. And driven the way some / many of us see as minimally acceptable, and in winter the actual range may be a lot less than 200.

Still signaficant as you say. To say over a hundred with certainty and no caveats.

 

[Mark J Constable]

1.8m by 2023 is quite conservative from where I'm sitting. Not quite the same metric, but there are reports dotted around that say the supply chain for PIVs will be 1.5 million worldwide by 2017.

600k seems to be the mode for UK 2020 total parc estimates these days. That'll mean 2-300k sales that year...

 

[h8ten]

I would be fine with a 150 mile range in winter providing there are ample charging points and rapid charging.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Unfortunately I would want a EV with 250+ real-world miles (i.e. one day of driving) all year before I would be totally happy.

PIV sales might be up there at those kinds of figures but IMO the majority will be PHEVs rather than 100% battery. The range and rapid charging speeds are not yet ready for mass uptake IMO and won't be for many years to come I expect.

Remember... people buy cars (and most things to be honest but especially cars) based on what they want... not what they need. It is no good saying people don't need a 200+ mile car. Most people want one and won't consider today's short-range EVs regardless of how we say they don't need longer range.

I don't "need" a 250 mile real-world range EV but I sure as hell want one and won't consider another EV until I get just that, along with faster rapid charging, at a price I can afford. From talking to non-EV owners I suspect that most of the general public feel similarly and I think it highly unlikely we will convince them otherwise and I am not even sure we should try. A world of short-range EVs with everyone spending significant parts of their day hanging around for their car to charge is not a world I relish!

Sure, we can stop every 50-80 miles and wait 30 mins to charge (assuming no queue and chargers work), or we can plug in and slow charge every time we stop or park, but that is not what people want. They have better things to do with their lives than hang around charging stations to get another 80 miles driving or to have to constantly consider if they have the range to do a trip. IMO It isn't until there are BEVs that have a range people consider acceptable and there are fast enough rapid charging options in place will the majority of the general public consider BEVs as a real alternative to ICEs. PHEVs will bridge that gap for most people IMO. These are coming I am sure but they are still a long way off and may not even be around by 2023 IMO.

Having said that today's BEVs make a great 2nd car now as the 2nd car of a family often is not used for those long trips. So the ideal right now IMO is a PHEV 1st car and a BEV for the 2nd if you have somewhere to charge overnight at home and possibly at work. This is exactly what we had... Ampera and a Leaf. Pity I didn't like the Ampera and wanted an SUV and currently the options are limited so went for a Qashqai. IMO though manufactures should concentrate all there efforts right now on PHEVs and forget any idea of long range BEVs until the tech has developed sufficiently to give people what they want... not what they need.

I now advocate PHEV as 1st or only car and 100% BEVs as a second car or 1st/only car if you are happy with the limitations.

 

[kentish zoe]

Unfortunately I would want a EV with 250+ real-world miles (i.e. one day of driving) all year before I would be totally happy.

PIV sales might be up there at those kinds of figures but IMO the majority will be PHEVs rather than 100% battery. The range and rapid charging speeds are not yet ready for mass uptake IMO and won't be for many years to come I expect.

Remember... people buy cars (and most things to be honest but especially cars) based on what they want... not what they need. It is no good saying people don't need a 200+ mile car. Most people want one and won't consider today's short-range EVs regardless of how we say they don't need longer range.

I don't "need" a 250 mile real-world range EV but I sure as hell want one and won't consider another EV until I get just that, along with faster rapid charging, at a price I can afford. From talking to non-EV owners I suspect that most of the general public feel similarly and I think it highly unlikely we will convince them otherwise and I am not even sure we should try. A world of short-range EVs with everyone spending significant parts of their day hanging around for their car to charge is not a world I relish!

Sure, we can stop every 50-80 miles and wait 30 mins to charge (assuming no queue and chargers work), or we can plug in and slow charge every time we stop or park, but that is not what people want. They have better things to do with their lives than hang around charging stations to get another 80 miles driving or to have to constantly consider if they have the range to do a trip. IMO It isn't until there are BEVs that have a range people consider acceptable and there are fast enough rapid charging options in place will the majority of the general public consider BEVs as a real alternative to ICEs. PHEVs will bridge that gap for most people IMO. These are coming I am sure but they are still a long way off and may not even be around by 2023 IMO.

Having said that today's BEVs make a great 2nd car now as the 2nd car of a family often is not used for those long trips. So the ideal right now IMO is a PHEV 1st car and a BEV for the 2nd if you have somewhere to charge overnight at home and possibly at work. This is exactly what we had... Ampera and a Leaf. Pity I didn't like the Ampera and wanted an SUV and currently the options are limited so went for a Qashqai. IMO though manufactures should concentrate all there efforts right now on PHEVs and forget any idea of long range BEVs until the tech has developed sufficiently to give people what they want... not what they need.

I now advocate PHEV as 1st or only car and 100% BEVs as a second car or 1st/only car if you are happy with the limitations.

Sorry Paul I disagree, - your arguments are sound but I believe the technology IS there to give 250 mile range and only the price is wrong which I blame on the manufacturer's lack of desire / investment. As long as we are happy to put up with continuing to rely on ice in phev form then we will not progress. We have our Zoe and 100,000 mile c'eed that meets our needs but I sincerely hope never to buy another internal combustion engine.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

I know a lot of people disagree with my assessment and that is perfectly fine but my view remains the same.

PHEVs are a stepping stone and a huge step in the right direction while the tech matures. We cannot do everything in huge jumps and we need interim solutions and PHEVs are just that while people get used to the technology and the concepts of EV ownership and while charging technologies and networks develop.

The tech is most definitely not there yet for mass take-up IMO. The current battery technology does not have the energy density necessary and charging is way too slow. Mind you... I do agree it is on the way but my view of how long it will take to get into cars is pessimistic. Car manufacturer's have shown they are slow to get new products to market and once there even slower to change and develop them. When I first got my Leaf in 2011 we were all saying 3-5 years and EVs will be on everyone's agenda... we were all hopelessly over optimistic and I am trying now to be more realistic.

We cannot change public opinion overnight and PHEVs are a tool to help do just that. They get people to become aware of the technology and the possibilities for the future whilst at the same time going part way towards the benefits of an EV yet keeping them within the comfort zone of what they know. I wholly support PHEVs right now.

One thing is certain though... there are almost as many views on this as there are observers! It isn't clear at all where it is heading or how fast IMO.

 

[Steve Thayne]

I think personally the technology is there for two car families to have one ev. And perhaps most families have two cars. That is a real open door now.

And the sales this year have increased significantly of the Leaf, from what I hear reported but also what I hear from local dealers.

A key selling point is the experience. And the more of us are driving them the more family, friends and colleagues get to experience them. The current increased sales are what makes me hopeful that ev's may go viral.

 

[Robwiz]

Opinions and anecdotes are all well and good, however, the research suggests that 80% of motorists would manage fine with a current BEV. I'd suggest that's why Nissan/Renault/VW/BMW have all launched cars with the range they currently have. It's a communication/lifestyle challenge with most potential EV drivers.

BEV sales are 100% up year on year in the UK. That's a pretty significant step change and with twice as many advocates for the technology behind the wheel of an EV, it will be interesting to see how perceptions shift. I suspect Tesla and BMW are providing a halo effect for EVs in general which will shift the public perception away from the G-Wizz/Twizy quadricycle meme.

Growing awareness that diesels, despite theri lower CO2 emissions, are still a major source of pollution could influence environmentally-aware drivers to shift to EVs - which would enliven demand in the used market.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Opinions and anecdotes are all well and good, however, the research suggests that 80% of motorists would manage fine with a current BEV.

I agree. They would. But people will not buy because they are told they can "manage". They want a better experience than that and so they will buy what they "want" not what they "need".

IMO we need to get away from this mantra that people do less than 30 miles a day and that 80% could easily manage with the EVs of today. Yes, they could manage... but would they want to? IMO no. Most won't. We need to look further ahead and to expect EVs to offer a similar experience to the ICEs of today and until that happens IMO most people will stick with ICEs... it is by far a better option for most people right now.

Yes they are great as a second car right now and I am not disputing that but as a main or only car - no - and people will not be hoodwinked into believing otherwise IMO.

 

[Matt Beard]

Opinions and anecdotes are all well and good, however, the research suggests that 80% of motorists would manage fine with a current BEV.

Research also shows that most people would manage fine with a Ford Fiesta - but that doesn't stop people spending much more on larger, faster and more comfortable vehicles. Image is extremely important in car choice.