Speak EV - Electric Car Forums banner

1 - 17 of 17 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
24 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
On the BBC Radio 4 'Today Programme' each day the is a puzzle. I thought you may find today's interesting.

The government has announced sales of new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars will be banned in 2035. 2.3 million of these vehicles are currently sold each year compared with 60,000 zero emissions ones. If the same number of cars are sold each year, what annual growth rate in zero emissions car sales will be needed?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
428 Posts
Just over 11%?
(though I'm not sure i follow the question, is it a trick? since you can't sell "the same number of cars are sold each year" there's be no growth)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
24 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
Just over 11%?
(though I'm not sure i follow the question, is it a trick? since you can't sell "the same number of cars are sold each year" there's be no growth)
Wow, that was quick. They will publish their answer tomorrow.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
901 Posts
Assuming we mean grow sales from 60k in 2019 to 2.3M in 2035 with a steady growth rate then i make it about 25.6%.
You have to tease apart where it starts and stops however- that’s not clear to me. It’s all in the wording.
I think they mean there should be zero sales (of non zero emissions cars) in 2035 and we get to grow the sales X % per year including 2020 and 2035.
If we get to grow sales in 2036 then we have 17 years to grow and 24% gets us there. If we were supposed to get it done in 2034 then we need a bit more.

Won’t work like that - it won’t be a straight line then flat in 2035.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
7,512 Posts
Assuming we mean grow sales from 60k in 2019 to 2.3M in 2035 with a steady growth rate then i make it about 25.6%.
You have to tease apart where it starts and stops however- that’s not clear to me. It’s all in the wording.
I think they mean there should be zero sales (of non zero emissions cars) in 2035 and we get to grow the sales X % per year including 2020 and 2035.
If we get to grow sales in 2036 then we have 17 years to grow and 24% gets us there. If we were supposed to get it done in 2034 then we need a bit more.

Won’t work like that - it won’t be a straight line then flat in 2035.
Yeah for starters if you buy a good quality EV today do you need to replace it by 2035? probably not, so overall sales may go down.....? Also for those determined to hang on to ICE they will maybe buy before the ban and again not need a replacement car for a long time.

Bottom line I guess is that some people in 2035 will be buying a SsangYong or BYD instead of waiting 12 months + for some marques.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
567 Posts
If the same number of cars are sold each year,
This is one of the problems that a lot of people and manufactures are missing. Who is to say we NEED to keep buying so many new cars each year? Isn't this level of consumerism part of the problem?
Maybe higher car prices and cheaper running costs will mean peoiple keep cars longer.
Again the press/media/big auto can't get their heads around EV and ICE ARE NOT THE SAME!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,850 Posts
The press/media make laugh (or cry) at their antics. If shopping prices go up a bit it's terrible news, but if house prices go up it's ... er ... good news. WTF?
 

·
Registered
Kia Soul EV 2020
Joined
·
106 Posts
I can see EV sales doubling each year for the next 5 years or so, then range anxiety will hit ICE car drivers as petrol stations close down. Car manufacturers will have to convert production lines to EVs or go bankrupt. Tesla, South Korean and Chinese EV manfacturers will happily supply the demand. 300 mile winter range will become the standard for motorway driving. After that electric air self piloting service will start to take over from EVs
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
24 Posts
Discussion Starter #10
Here is the answer to the puzzle from the BBC website:

Growth Rate = G
2,360,000=60,000*(1+G%015

What do you think?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,415 Posts
So playing the game, 27.7 % annual growth. This is way below the current rate and as suggested above other factors are likely to speed it up as long as we don't run out of raw materials.
FWIW I don't see petrol stations becoming scarce until way after 2035 as that may well be when the last ICE are sold but there will be a huge estate of existing vehicles that will be made before EVs even catch up in terms of sales (2033 at that growth rate).
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,431 Posts
FWIW I don't see petrol stations becoming scarce until way after 2035 as that may well be when the last ICE are sold but there will be a huge estate of existing vehicles that will be made before EVs even catch up in terms of sales (2033 at that growth rate).
Agreed. I think the current trend of closures will continue due to consolidation etc, but it will be a long time before we see campaigns to "keep open the last petrol station in town". Or I guess we might see a transition to forecourts full of very rapid chargers and a lonely petrol pump over in the far corner.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,415 Posts
Playing devil's advocate, we might see fossil fuels becoming a niche and pariah product sold in the same way as tobacco is currently. Whilst the mainstream supermarkets continue to supply the latter it is increasingly isolated.
When motoring started around 130 years ago petroleum spirit was sold only in small quantities in chemists for cleaning. Perhaps Boots have a potential new market?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
188 Posts
I can’t see classic ICE cars being less desirable. Your 67 Shelby, your Bond Jags, the real beautiful side of motoring, so I would imagine enthusiast petrol will be available in areas where those cars are popular, such as status symbol neighbourhoods where the mechanic staff and parts infrastructure will consolidate into.

edit- I mean these cars are above cost concerns already so price isn’t a factor
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
428 Posts
Here is the answer to the puzzle from the BBC website:

Growth Rate = G
2,360,000=60,000*(1+G%015

What do you think?
?‍♀
(OK so i made a mistake, in my rush, so I revise to 27.6%)
But I imagined now - 2020, we're at 60K
So, 2021 +27.6% growth (to 2020) = 76K
Continuing, 2022 +27.6% growth (to 2021) = 97K, etc...
2023 ~ 124K
2024 ~ 159K
2025 ~ 202K
Until we get to 2035 where we're reach 2,322,262

But as @BornAgainEcoWarrior said it won't work like that
:unsure:
 
1 - 17 of 17 Posts
Top