[Zomb]

Creating a separate thread as I don't want to hijack the very good thread about good deals. I posted in there about when I hope second hand EVs will become affordable, and got the answer below:

I think 2023 is way too optimistic. There's models only recently new to the market that are significantly more expensive that the ICE versions (e.g. Citroen C4). They'll still be around in two years time and there's no way the manufacturers are suddenly going to get find 30%+ cost savings in 24 months.

While I agree that most EVs are still significantly more expensive than ICE equivalent, the previous page in the same thread was linking to 26k ID.3s. Those are not 11k Corsas, but I'm not sure those exist either. I bought my A3 6 years ago for 31k as it was the same as a 26k pure ICE equivalent, and I thought I'd save at least 5k over the life of the car. I'd think the ID.3 is probably quite close to my A3. 26k is a good deal on it while it would be normal price for the ICE, but compared to even 2 years ago, that's a great price for that EV.

Of course, some Leaf and Zoe owners will already tell us that they got good prices for their cars compared to ICE equivalent.

Now, I'm hoping in 2023 to see a decent choice or EVs that will be equivalent in price to ICE. I'm not really hoping for the cheaper cars there, but the average car in the UK, which I imagine to be somewhat option loaded golf/astra. The reason for that is I remember reading about a number of battery factories coming online in 2023, and more car makers are now starting to produce EVs, so I hope that means they are adapting factories for those.

To me, the above means affordable EVs will come in 2025, with a mix of 2023 leases and company cars coming on the market second hand, plus some new EVs coming in cheaper than the ICE equivalent for a similar use (maybe not 500 miles range Sandero for £6k).

There we go. Disagree as much as you like, we're not polluting any other thread here

 

[Swagman]

There we go. Disagree as much as you like, we're not polluting any other thread here

🤣🤣🤣
Guilty as charged!

I don't think we'll ever see BEV's at truly comparable prices to their ICE counterparts.

Both governments and manufacturers realise there is a need to have fewer vehicles on our roads and the easiest way to do that is to raise the price of getting on the bottom rung of the ladder. However, manufacturers have shareholders and execs to keep happy, so keeping BEV's higher in price for fewer vehicles made still allows them to maintain or even increase their profit margins.

There is far less claw back on costs once the vehicle has left the factory as servicing costs are vastly reduced for BEV's in comparison to ICE and the dealer network that we have now will be replaced by direct sales, a la Tesla.

There are 40m registered vehicles on the roads in the UK, that take up huge resources to manufacture, maintain, provide infrastructure for, including massive amounts of land to park them on when they are doing nothing valuable at all. I can't see how, if we are serious about being carbon neutral by 2050 that anyone thinks that it can be achieved by keeping a similar number of vehicles on the roads regardless of their method of propulsion.

I employ a lot of young people. They don't have the same aspirations to own a depreciating vehicle as many on this forum do. I'd imagine by 2050 there will be half the vehicles on the roads as there are presently, especially as we, the generation that have willingly let them take over our lives shuffle off to the motorway in the skies.

Fully Charged had an intersting talk from their original LIve event that looked at the future of BEV's and that was very much the prognosis that was discussed. Like Peak Oil, car ownership has probably reached it's zenith and the next 3 decades will see a total change in personal transport.

Thank god for that.

I'm 53 next week and have just moved back into a city having had the last decade living out in the Peak District. I presently lease an I-Pace, but doubt that I will have a need going forward to own/lease a vehicle if I continue as a city dweller. What we really need to focus on is active travel, 15 minute neighbourhoods and increasing the options for individual travel through better integrated transport, not hoping that BEV's reach parity with their ICE equivalents. More than 60% of the population live in cities or urban environments. We really should be smart enough by now to be able to create transport systems that work for the many, rather than the few.

That's my tuppence worth.....

The younger generation will not thank us for our wanton destruction of the planet if we don't.

 

[Cloud]

I can't remember where I saw or heard the analysis - possibly on that Panorama thing a couple of weeks ago? But there was some model of prediction saying - well yeah 2023ish.

Thing is everyone has their own definition of affordable. For me a Zoe 22 was (and I justify battery lease with "that's what i was paying for petrol anyway") and 95% of the time it suits me down to the ground. But admittedly the other 5% is when you want to go more than 60 miles and then it is not at all comparable to an ICE because you have to stop every 50-60 miles if you can find a rapid that still has AC and actually works, and charge at 22kw unless you have an older one. I think 2023 is a reasonable estimate for when much more practical ZE40 and similar EVs will be affordable on the used market for people like me (budget 7k or so, keep for 5+ years). 2025 at the absolute earliest for ZE50 if there's sudden rapid progress that devalues it quickly. Who knows when the "£500 banger for a 17 year old" will be a thing though.

 

[KenB]

There are loads of affordable EVs starting at say £4k
Have you not heard of total cost of ownership. EVs are cheaper!
Have you not heard we need to save the planet and ourselves now

 

[cah197]

When the iPhone came out everyone said it was far too expensive.

People said no-one would pay that much money just for a phone.

Now £1,000 for a phone is fairly normal.

But I don’t need a separate camera, camcorder, Blackberry or satnav anymore.

 

[Neilew]

I don't think we'll ever see BEV's at truly comparable prices to their ICE counterparts.

Didn't I read/hear somewhere that the price of ICE cars is rising to meet the price of EV? Maybe the manufacturers have realised that some people are willing to pay a lot me for a car and are taking advantage of the fact.

 

[Swagman]

Didn't I read/hear somewhere that the price of ICE cars is rising to meet the price of EV? Maybe the manufacturers have realised that some people are willing to pay a lot me for a car and are taking advantage of the fact.

If you were a manufacturer, why wouldn't you?
The car making landscape will change significantly over the nest decade or two. There are already legacy manufacturers who have been teetering on the edge of bankruptcy for years as competition has kept prices low. Now there is an opportunity to increase profits and lose some of the competition in the process.
Sounds like a win-win for those with the resources to survive.

 

[proddick]

The list price of cars is largely irrelevant as almost all new cars sold to private buyers are on finance.

For people who can charge at home, in most cases the total cost per month (finance + fuel) of the EV model is no more than the same performance and spec petrol. Yes, for people who are happy to drive a lower performance, poverty spec, manual car they probably can save a few £ per month choosing petrol.

Later this year and next we will see more light bulb moments for many buyers. A big challenge is still the dinosaur dealers who don't help people choose electric even when it works for their lifestyle, but hopefully the manufacturers will help in that regard.

The biggest problem remains for those people without off road parking, or have communal parking. Hopefully we will see progress this area but the cost of public charging does make it harder to justify a switch to electric.

 

[peterboat]

Yesterday I had a conversation with Sam the stepson and hid girlfriend both in their mid twenties, they work in two dealerships under the same banner, neither of them would give an EV houseroom and neither would their workmates and friends!
Unfortunately a large group of the young want the biggest and fastest cars they can get and dont care about pollution, that our fault and problem. Big sticks are going to be required I think to make the young go green, Sam said the price difference between ICE and electric buys a lot of fuel so why bother, I have found his attitude to be the norm amongst that age group.
I think the best solution is black box for pay per mile with bands for worst polluters to the least polluters. A plus would be anyone that speeds is nicked straight away so speed cameras could become history saving money, also entry into low pollution zones deducts the appropriate fee as well

 

[proddick]

neither of them would give an EV houseroom and neither would their workmates and friends!

I guess this is why we need the 2030 stop sale date as at least they will only be able to buy a used ICE. Once the pandemic is out of the way I hope we will see fuel duty rise. If the government keeps a substantial lead they may be able to sacrifice some votes to achieve it.

Road pricing is a hard one as you don't want to penalise the least well off who need a basic car to get to their work, often on shifts where public transport isn't an option. An old SUV or MPV may also be the only viable option for a larger family, so again care needs to be taken on how taxes are applied.

 

[80698]

Yesterday I had a conversation with Sam the stepson and hid girlfriend both in their mid twenties, they work in two dealerships under the same banner, neither of them would give an EV houseroom and neither would their workmates and friends!
Unfortunately a large group of the young want the biggest and fastest cars they can get and dont care about pollution, that our fault and problem. Big sticks are going to be required I think to make the young go green, Sam said the price difference between ICE and electric buys a lot of fuel so why bother, I have found his attitude to be the norm amongst that age group.
I think the best solution is black box for pay per mile with bands for worst polluters to the least polluters. A plus would be anyone that speeds is nicked straight away so speed cameras could become history saving money, also entry into low pollution zones deducts the appropriate fee as well

I'm not sure I would call it the norm. I'm 26 so fit into that same age group. Aside from the fact that I am meeting an increasing number of other people my age at the chargers, many of the people that I know seem to be very environmentally conscious. While most of them can't make a practical EV affordable yet, they do still make a number of other efforts to do their bit from what I have seen. Even a couple of my friends who are well into their cars and spent a lot of money on upgrading them and improving performance over the years etc. have mostly positive opinions of EVs and hope to make the switch in future provided they can get beyond the usual EV obstacles.

Don't get me wrong. I know a small few people who insist a V8 is the definition of their existence and insist that EVs are nothing more than toy cars and otherwise useless. But from my viewpoint they definitely seem to be the ones in the minority.

 

[goldtop]

At £215/month (Ioniq), I think new EVs are affordable now. Used EVs are relatively spendy because of supply and demand, and I think that will apply for a few years yet.

FWIW, I've got cars built around two of the best engines (one V6, one V8) ever made. They're fantastic bits of engineering. But eventually the nostalgia will turn them into curios. The main question on that is just how soon the government forces them off the road. 20 years?

 

[WithEthyl]

Yesterday I had a conversation with Sam the stepson and hid girlfriend both in their mid twenties, they work in two dealerships under the same banner, neither of them would give an EV houseroom and neither would their workmates and friends!
Unfortunately a large group of the young want the biggest and fastest cars they can get and dont care about pollution, that our fault and problem.

Isn't that just a reflection of the current costs of ICE vs EV, performance ICE cars are readily available and used models can be quite affordable whereas performance EVs remain very expensive. For younger people with lower incomes and less disposable income, if they want a high performance car it has to be an ICE?

I think that will change quite quickly once EV costs fall because having an EV becomes a point of difference, the young person who is the first in their group to get a performance EV it has some status value, it's a step up from everyone else with an ICE.

 

[cah197]

whereas performance EVs remain very expensive.

If you’re looking at the performance end then EVs seem even better value for money!

 

[EVJourney]

New(ish) to market technology being more expensive than incumbent technology, that has literally 100's millions of used examples available. Threads like this are almost totally pointless because people will just argue their viewpoint with fingers in ears going lalalalala, then saying I don't agree.

Leave the thread for 3+ years, and come back then see if your opinion was correct.

It's like when mobile phone operators use the word unlimited, but they don't really mean unlimited as they have a FUP in place, the same can be said of the term affordable, it is utterly meaningless and trying to shoe horn your own opinion into it. I am pretty sure if you asked both my neighbours either side of me what an affordable car is they'd have totally different opinions, yet they both have the same size/value houses. How does that work?

EDIT: Also the question should be asked at what point can you afford not to have one? Much like not having an internet connection, or a mobile phone, they were all extra expenses and offered little to you over and above what you needed, and were just a luxury. So once your vehicle becomes more than just a mode of transport, and becomes a utility, e.g. part of your house, via V2G or V2H, and some charging it via Solar and reducing their monthly fuel bills every month for years on end, when is that tipping point taken into account?

 

[Naturetech]

I can't answer the title question in an exact timescale, but for EV prices to fall into 'everyman' territory one thing must happen: an over-supply of lithium ion batteries. EV production has been ramping up over the past decade, and battery supply has been playing catch-up. This is the sticking point. When there are more than enough batteries being made, prices will fall due to the increased competition. Putting a timescale on this is the tricky part, but perhaps it'll be 10 to 20 years.
Due to EVs having a battery pack with potential second-life use, I doubt if they'll ever have a bottom-level value approaching ICE vehicles.

 

[Dion Rust]

If you’re talking new cars, what do you call affordable. The monthly cost (taking into account savings) or the list price? As we know hardly anyone pays list price and by the time you take this into account the monthly cost usually works out around the same as a new ICE car. A new Zoe’s the same amount per month as a new fiesta for example.

at the end of the day it does come down to your mileage. When I worked out costs for a fiesta replacement the Zoe come up trumps.

 

[simon-g]

We went through a time around 2016 / 2017 where new mainstream EVs were selling so slowly that manufacturers had to heavily discount or offer bonkers finance deals to get rid. The wealthy eccentric early adopters had already bought in, everyone else was still sceptical, and the newer generations with more practical range were yet to appear.

Buying used now is likely to mean something from around that time. Since then though there's hundreds of thousands of newer plug-in cars on the roads, the "network effect" (of knowing a friend, neighbour, colleague, family member who's happy with an EV) is kicking in, they're proving reliable, and so people decide they make a lot of sense. Big demand, but supply limited to what was sold - just over 10k BEVs were sold in all of 2016, and Autotrader has just 227 of them for sale.

£6-7k for a 5 year old 22kw Zoe that still needs a £50/month battery lease (and is excluded from many rapid chargers) doesn't seem particularly good value to me, but it must stack up for some people or prices would be lower.

I'm hoping things improve a bit over the next year or two, more supply of longer range cars pushing everything down a bit, but I think the big fleet BIK surge of last year needs to work through for any real movement, so that'll 2024/25.

 

[Swagman]

I'm hoping things improve a bit over the next year or two, more supply of longer range cars pushing everything down a bit, but I think the big fleet BIK surge of last year needs to work through for any real movement, so that'll 2024/25.

I was one of those early adopters. Never saw myself as rich.

There was roughly 110k BEV sales in 2019 along with 70k PHEV. Pretty pointless counting the last year due to Covid, but sales are forecast to increase by 50% during 2021 across both sectors. Even with the generous BIK tax allowance that is still a relatively small uptake from the business community and will be dominated by cars that will still be outside the realms of the average man in the street at the end of a 3-4yr lease.

I'd reckon we are still closer to 2030 than 2025 before many will consider it a choice worth making. Battery supply will be the real driver of lower prices rather than leasing deals. Demand will outstrip supply for the foreseeable future, helping to keep prices higher than most would be willing to pay.

 

[peterboat]

As an afterthought they both drive EVs at the dealerships and rate the Twizy as great fun, Sam rates a Model S as a great car but for the foreseeable future it will be ICE for both of them.