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Discussion Starter #1
As I write this there are eight definite contenders and another four maybes for the job of leading the Conservative party , aka Prime Minister.

I've heard of four of the twelve, the rest I wouldn't know if I ran them over, but it seems to me that the country is seriously lacking any natural leadership when there are possibly a dozen people who think they might be that person.

But who do we think might win?

Boris seems to be the bookies' favourite (last I heard anyway), but is he a slam dunk? I'm not so sure. If they choose him and he goes all Terminator on a hard Brexit that could cause a confidence vote and general election, which I'm guessing the Tories won't be very keen to get into just now. Someone more in the middle then? Like Theresa May was? Hmm, they already went there and didn't like that.

I'm also guessing that Euro election results may have an impact, though it seems the likely outcome is known well enough to already be factored in.

I'm sure some of you will loathe one or more of these characters, but let's not get into the hate - the choice won't be made by any of us (unless there are some members of the Conservative party here), so there are probably no votes to be won here.
 

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The assumption that T.May's replacement will be a PM is predicated on the assumption that Conservative-DUP coalition can survive the loss of its founder. I predict a general election.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Do you think an election, or at least the confidence vote that could initiate it, could/would happen before the new leader is decided? Calling it (the vote) that early sounds like a risk outside Corbyn's envelope to me.
From what I've gleaned the DUP would back Boris, so that a plus for him I suppose.
 

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Screenshot 2019-05-26 at 23.12.44.png

:confused: Boris Trump :eek:

Only those two could forge agreement over a game of Wiff Waff to intervene in the life of Nambia's masturbating goats using a $1m parental loan. Although each purport to have solutions to everything, they would first need to solve how to meet, as Boris made clear he avoids New York due to his not-scary fear of meeting Trump.

The prospect of PM Boris is unbelievable. Has anyone counted the number of times BoJo was fired for lying? Surely he would be continually heckled out of Parliament?!

Boris Johnson's most infamous lies and untruths
 

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I understood Theresa May was stepping down in order to make way for Teresa June.......:rolleyes:
 

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UK European election 2019 results

Still counting, and currently looks like an even split: 33% pro-Brexit, 33% anti-Brexit, 33% 2nd referendum. In some regions the split is very clearly 50/50.

pro-Brexit: Brexit, Conservative, UKIP
anti-Brexit: LibDem, Green, Plaid-Cyrmu, SNP, Change
2nd referendum: Labour

P.S. Commentary suggests Labour is now flipping to anti-Brexit, which if true, would put >50% MEPs on remain.
 

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Looks like Remain beat No Deal in the pseudo-referendum.
LD + Green exceeds Brexit Party, and ChUK exceeds UKIP.
The nationalists are the "cherry on top". I know SNP were campaigning on a strongly anti-Brexit platform but didn't hear whether the same applied to Plaid.

It's hard to say what Labour or Conservative voters' views were on the Brexit question, though likely more Labour against Brexit and more Tories in favour. Given Labour got substantially more votes than the Tories it *might* be more "pro EU" than anti, but as well to just discount both from any calculation.

I am somewhere between amused and concerned at Nigel Farage now speaking of future General Election success for his new corporate entity...
 

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Looks like Remain beat No Deal in the pseudo-referendum.
As far as seats go it's running neck and neck.


Sent from my Pixel C using Tapatalk
Over simplified IMO
The SNP and PC although remain parties will have people desperate to leave the UK and the EU.
listening to the news this morning it looks more like a repeat of the referendum with an even split between leave and remain.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Laura Kuenssberg this morning
Shades of grey
And with the success of The Brexit Party, there is a push for the Tories to be willing to leave the EU without a deal whatever the potentially grave economic costs.

The Tory leadership contest in the wake of these results runs the risk of turning into bragging rights over who can take a harder line on Brexit.

In these elections it seems both of our main Westminster parties have been punished for trying to paint shades of grey when the referendum choice was between black and white. And there is a chance that encourages both of them to give up fighting for the middle.

But that could set our politics on a course where, whatever happens, half of the country will be unhappy. Nothing about these dramatic results sketches out a straightforward route.
Which aligns somewhat with Peston's suggestion a week or two back that Farage could 'save' the Tories.
But will they dare to choose Boris?
 

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On the grounds the map with PR of the UK is almost completely light blue how on earth is any party in a general election where we have first past the post going to win on a remain ticket?

The Torys IMO are going to go for a Brexit leader, if they then push for a general election and Labour back the second referendum choice we could be left with a dark blue map where we will leave with no deal. Its time for parliament to take a long hard look at themselves and back some sort of compromise.....
 

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Over simplified IMO
The SNP and PC although remain parties will have people desperate to leave the UK and the EU.
listening to the news this morning it looks more like a repeat of the referendum with an even split between leave and remain.
At last we now have conclusive electoral proof that Brexit is no longer conceivably the “will of the people”.

How long will it be before Brexiteers acknowledge this I wonder? It was about the only (three-year-old) argument they had left.
 

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All in favour of a second referendum: 54.5%
It is often the case that commentators tend to use statistics like a drunken man uses a lamppost: that is, for support not illumination. The mistakes that many commentators are making, imho, is forgetting that 62% didn't vote last week; some brexiteers will have voted Green because they see the CC argument as being paramount etc. I find it a bit rich that an MP can be elected on a majority of 1 vote having got less than 50% of the total vote but then deny the people that voted to Leave the EU the democratic decision that was taken. A second referendum will achieve nothing: if people cannot trust the first referendum that why should a second referendum have any democratic legitimacy?

As a Leaver, I would rather that we didn't leave the EU if what is on the table is a fixed menu where we have to pay but have no future say about what is being legislated. Equally, I do not share the concerns that we couldn't prosper in a free trade environment.
 

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On the grounds the map with PR of the UK is almost completely light blue how on earth is any party in a general election where we have first past the post going to win on a remain ticket?

The Torys IMO are going to go for a Brexit leader, if they then push for a general election and Labour back the second referendum choice we could be left with a dark blue map where we will leave with no deal. Its time for parliament to take a long hard look at themselves and back some sort of compromise.....
That's because the map is misleading. They've simply coloured in "who got the most" in each region as if it were "First Past the Post".

I find it hard to believe all that many people would vote for "The Brexit Party" in a GE.
They would undoubtedly get *some* MPs, but nothing like the landslide looking at those maps might suggest.

People really aren't that easily conned. And Farage is very definitely a conman.
 

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That's because the map is misleading. They've simply coloured in "who got the most" in each region as if it were "First Past the Post".

I find it hard to believe all that many people would vote for "The Brexit Party" in a GE.
They would undoubtedly get *some* MPs, but nothing like the landslide looking at those maps might suggest. People really aren't that easily conned. And Farage is very definitely a conman.
Fake Blues :p
 

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At last we now have conclusive electoral proof that Brexit is no longer conceivably the “will of the people”.

How long will it be before Brexiteers acknowledge this I wonder? It was about the only (three-year-old) argument they had left.
No we don't!!!!

You can't simply add up the Libs with the greens etc.....How do you know all the green votes etc are against leave?
I will give you that the vast majority of Lib vote are anti Brexit and they came second to HARD Brexit, the remaining vote at best guess puts us at a close to 50-50 split ie back to where we were in 2016.
 

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Given that there was a large Parliamentary majority for Article 50, I just wonder why no party is pushing for a second referendum that offers just two options:

1. No Deal Brexit on WTO terms.

2. Brexit based on a customs union with the EU.

I sense that those pushing for a second referendum would not support it for obvious reasons: they want to re-run the referendum because they lost first time around. Clearly, option 2 would require parliamentarians of all colours/persuasions to accept the EU Withdrawal Agreement - warts and all.
 
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