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Etoile
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
We have pretty much reached the end of our EV switch viability research and thought that it may be interesting to share our results with you all.

Background
For years we have operated a 'banger economics' model. We buy a vehicle for around £1000 and we don't carry out any form of proactive maintenance i.e. servicing. If a vehicle breaks down and so long as the cost does not approach or exceed the cost of purchase then we repair else we simply scrap it and buy another one. Under this model we have never owned a vehicle that isn't less than 10-15 years old.

Premise
We wanted to see if it would be financially viable for us to consider switching to fully inclusive PCH of two EVs instead of running our two ancient ICE vehicles.

We specifically wanted fully inclusive PCH because we don't really want to have to have to worry about the vehicles in terms of depreciation, maintenance and the aggravation of having to trade/sell; why not let someone else worry about all that. We simply wanted two cheep and reliable cars that won't strand us and the kids on the side of some road far from home in the dark in the middle of winter.

Finding the EVs
Outline
Our family consists of two adults, two children and a large dog. Our daily journeys to work and back consist of one ~23 mile round trip and another ~53 mile round trip. These are distributed between approximately 75% motorway and 25% town/city driving. We have totalled these mileages for a year and added a fair amount extra for trips out giving us 10000 miles for one vehicle and 20000 for the other.

Methodology
We chose an 'all inclusive' as possible 3 + 47 PCH with all maintenance and vehicle paint & interior protection options included (minus dent and scratch cover).

We began by compiling quotes online, we then approached our local dealerships with the best ones for each specific make to see if they could improve upon them. We then tired to see if the dealerships could improve upon their quotes in relation to each other.

The Quotes
As an overview, not broken down (each quote is for two vehicles):
  1. Kia Soul EV @ £592 pcm with £1775.10 initial base outlay
  2. Hyundai Ioniq @ £777.72 pcm with £2333.16 initial base outlay
  3. Nissan Leaf Acenta 30kWh @ £614.47 pcm with £1843.41 initial base outlay
  4. BMW i3: Contract not suitable
  5. Renault ZOE: No quotes forthcoming after a month
Our Experiences
We found the experiences of trying to deal with Renault and BMW to be the most disappointing. Nether company seemed very interested in providing us with quotes or for that matter, engaging with us in general in relation to these cars. BMW finally acquiesced after I complained but were unable to include maintenance so we discounted them. No quotes however materialised from Renault even after pressuring them, they just didn't seem interested in securing our custom. Very poor handling indeed from both of these.

The most ideal vehicle for us was the Ioniq due to its size however trying to get a sensible quote and idea of timescale out of Hyundai sadly proved to be quite impossible. They seemed to be having supply and technical difficulties and they also seem to have priced themselves out somewhat... A real shame.

That left Nissan for the Leaf and Kia for the Soul EV. The Leaf was disappointing in terms of build quality and spec level compared to the simplicity, superior spec and general pragmatism of the newly upgraded Soul. Furthermore Nissan were also unable to beat or even match the quotes from Kia so we decided that we'd move forward with the Kia as an analysis model.

Financial Analysis
Base Monthly ICE Model
Right now our stable baseline monthly outgoings are ~£607 consisting of:
  • Fuel @ £470
  • Tax @ £50
  • Breakdown Cover @ £35
  • Insurance @ £52
Base Monthly EV Model
We projected a stable monthly baseline of £700 consisting of:
  • PCH @ £592
  • Electricity (fuel) @ £37
  • Insurance @ £52
  • GAP @ £19
First year monthly outlays:
  • Deposits @ £147.93
  • Chargers x2 @ £16.00
Projections
We selected a period of ~4 years, 2014 to 2017, totalled our ICE vehicle repair costs for each year (including replacement vehicles due to uneconomical repair costs), divided them by 12 and added them to the total monthly ICE baseline costs.

The ICE vehicles we have modelled include:
  • 2002 Renault Scenic 1.8 litre with ~200000 miles (replaced a previous scrapped car at the start of the analysis period and is now itself scrapped)
  • 2005 Kia Sportage 2 litre with ~140000 miles (replaced the Renault and is the base for the current running costs)
  • 2003 Rover 75 Connoisseur 2 litre with ~110000 miles (replaced a previous scrapped car and is the base for current running costs)
From all of this we have produced the following chart:



Key
  • Combined (No Purchases): Total monthly costs, baseline and repairs for each year excluding car purchases due to uneconomical repair costs.
  • Monthly Outgoings: The base stable monthly ICE costs as outlined above.
  • Combined: Total monthly costs, baseline and repairs for the year including car purchases due to uneconomical repair costs.
  • Electric: Monthly cost of EV model as detailed above.
  • Electric (First Year): Total monthly EV model cost plus the total cost of additional outlays for the first year (shown across all years in the period just for comparison).
Additional Notes
It's important to mention that these EV projections do not include:
  • Costs incurred by accessing and using the charging infrastructure i.e. on the motorways. They only include home charging.
  • Costs of hiring a large ICE when we take longer drives, for example, from East Anglia to Scotland and back.
  • Costs of taxi hire to and from airports for holidays (once or twice a year).
  • Budgeting for correcting any cosmetic damage that these brand new cars may incur during their 4 year lease lifetime. Lets face it, it's highly likely to happen at some point over this period and it's probably not going to be cheap to sort out to meet the dealership's standards.
Conclusions
Unfortunately based on the objective evidence it seems as though it's just not viable for us to make the switch to EVs at this time. Moreover we can only speculate that costs will continue to increase in the comming years to reflect the constantly improving technology. Furthermore we would have to make significant scarifies in terms of space as our current vehicles are quite large; one is a 4x4 and the other one is a large executive saloon. The Kia Soul EV is not exactly a specious car, which we could live with if the costs made sense - sadly they don't, for us.

Hopefully this exercise may be of some use to others at a similar juncture.
 

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How about one EV and keep one banger? Check out fleetdrive/drive electric for any PCH quotes and see what they come back with :)
 

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  1. Kia Soul EV @ £592 pcm with £1775.10 initial base outlay
  2. Hyundai Ioniq @ £777.72 pcm with £2333.16 initial base outlay
  3. Nissan Leaf @ £614.47 pcm with £1843.41 initial base outlay
  4. BMW i3: Contract not suitable
  5. Renault ZOE: No quotes forthcoming after a month
------
These seem absurdly high? Am I missing something?

We pay £199/month for a Tekna30, £199 deposit.
 

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I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
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Kia Soul is around the £210 mark for one, at that mileage and duration. You can get significantly cheaper.

Is it cheaper than banger-economics?;-
a) probably not
b) nor is it so uncertain

More money = better certainty + drive around in a nicer car.

I'm looking at around the 20~25p/mile mark [inc electricity, not insurance] in the leased Soul I am waiting for. Compare that with the cheapest ICE I have ever had, a 10 year old Vectra diesel, 5p/mile [inc maintenance costs] over 80k miles, plus 10p/mile diesel plus VED.

EV not cheaper than Vectra, but warmer in winter! A 'win' for the EV, I'd say, even before any question of warranty protection, new car-ness, nicer drive, etc...!! ;)

Most 'old' 2nd hand ICE I have ever owned have worked out at around 10p/mile, some more, some less. I base the value of ownership of ICE on whether the purchase/depreciation/maintenance costs are more or less than 10p/mile. The Soul is going to be around 10p/mile + 10p/mile for fuel, or around 50mpg equivalent. That's now a 'win-win'!

You've probably made the wrong decision, TBH, but you have to please yourself.

I would also add that there is probably no good economic argument to replace a viable old banger ICE with EV, you should do it once you need a car, i.e. when you send one for scrap.
 

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Often the pcp can work out cheaper per month over 2 years rather than 4 and then you only need add 1 service £99 on a leaf as any other repairs are under warranty. Also worth trying different mileage combinations ([email protected], 1 @20k, [email protected] etc - possibly splitting between leaf and soul if best deal varies by mileage). We switched from bangernomics to the leaf because although it was slighly more we got fed up with being stranded on the roadside.
 

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I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
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Often the pcp can work out cheaper per month over 2 years rather than 4 and then you only need add 1 service £99 on a leaf as any other repairs are under warranty. Also worth trying different mileage combinations ([email protected], 1 @20k, [email protected] etc - possibly splitting between leaf and soul if best deal varies by mileage). We switched from bangernomics to the leaf because although it was slighly more we got fed up with being stranded on the roadside.
Yes, I think Leaf PCP is cheaper than PCH because RCI take a 'high risk factor' (read; zero chance!) of meeting the GFV to sell cars. Whereas Kia do nothing of the kind, and PCH is currently half the price of PCP.
 

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Those PCH quotes look very high to me. -- Why PCH instead of PCP? (Edit: 20,000 miles per year!!)
2nd Edit. The PCH quotes are INSANE. The dealers didn't want give you quotes because they don't have manufacturer support. There are other ways to get a car.

Did you consider other finance options? The biggest incentives are usually on PCP. For PCH, 3rd party leasing companies might be better. TBH at 20,000 miles per year PCH is probably not going to work. In any case I wouldn't want to run a lease past the end of the factory warranty. The residual value falls increasing payments and you may have to pay for repairs before handing the car back.


  1. Nissan Leaf @ £614.47 pcm with £1843.41 initial base outlay
614 * 47 + 1843 = £30,701. YIKES You should be able to get a LEAF on regular finance for less than that.
Nissan are in an odd place at the moment. THe new model is coming out in a few weeks. They are not offering much of anything on the current model.



You are comparing the running cost of a brand new car vs. 14 year old cars. If you had compared a new ICE car to your current fleet, you would have reached the same conclusion: Fuel cost is small compared to the price of the car.


Did you consider near new or used?

In a few weeks There will probably be big discounts on outgoing LEAF demonstrators and perhaps on any remaining old style cars in dealer stock.
 

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I am not sure detailed calculations were necessary to know that an old ICE will be cheaper to own than a new EV. Perhaps there was some other agenda here?
 

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Can I remind posters those numbers are for TWO cars each time not one. Can the OP edit to make it clear or maybe a mod...

Some old ICEs, if you keep out of banger territory, can be as costly as a new EV. I've worked out that some of mine have been but they've mostly been older performance cars that tend toward to the not cheap especially when you keep them so long they need repeated rust repair every few years.
 

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Even a brand new MG3 or Dacia Sandero isn't going to win on cost alone.

Can I remind posters those numbers are for TWO cars each time not one. Can the OP edit to make it clear or maybe a mod...
That is still too expensive. It also doesn't make sense to get identical cars when one is on 10,000 miles pa and the other is 20,000 pa. I'd get the 10,000 mile pa car on PCP and purchase the 20,000 mile pa car.

OP could get the 20,000 pa car for about 1/2 the total combined quote and own the car after 4 years.

There are several nearly new LEAF 30's on Auto Trader asking about £15,000 -- example: Nissan Leaf 5dr Hat Acenta 30kw

Nissan finance often have 0% apr and/or £1000 deposit contribution on nearly new cars.


Better yet, buy a nearly new LEAF 30 for the high mileage and keep one of the existing cars for the low mileage use.
 

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I've stopped trying to sway myself by cost alone as like you I normally just spent £1500 and then scrap when it dies.
What I am looking at now however is: when it dies, do I get a NEW (Well, Nearly new) frugal ICE/Hybrid or EV.
That is more of an 'Apples vs apples' case study, instead of your workings out of 'Apples to coconuts'.

On the flip side though, I had no idea the Soul was so affordable!
Off to measure the garage!
 

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Etoile
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Discussion Starter #14 (Edited)
How about one EV and keep one banger?
We ideally wanted to be free of the inconsistency and unreliability of our ICE vehicles. We considered various scenarios such as keeping one on SORN but they didn't really seem very pragmatic in the end. I discussed some of these options here.
Check out fleetdrive/drive electric for any PCH quotes and see what they come back with :)
Unfortunately they were higher than the dealership direct quotes.
I think better deals can be found still.
We'd love to still consider switching if there are... Sadly though we haven't found any.
Is it cheaper than banger-economics?;-
a) probably not
b) nor is it so uncertain
Indeed and we don't mind allocating a bit extra a month to secure more reliable transportation.
More money = better certainty + drive around in a nicer car.
We are not really interesting in driving around in something that's spectacular. Cheaper is better to be honest, so long as it 'just works' and that we don't have to care about it then great...
You've probably made the wrong decision, TBH, but you have to please yourself.
Well, we have to take the most financially pragmatic action.
I would also add that there is probably no good economic argument to replace a viable old banger ICE with EV
And that assessment certainly seems to align with the analysis.
We switched from bangernomics to the leaf because although it was slighly more we got fed up with being stranded on the roadside.
Indeed and the associated £200-£600 repair cost to get it working again :ROFLMAO:
Often the pcp can work out cheaper per month over 2 years rather than 4 and then you only need add 1 service £99 on a leaf as any other repairs are under warranty. Also worth trying different mileage combinations ([email protected], 1 @20k, [email protected] etc - possibly splitting between leaf and soul if best deal varies by mileage).
Yes, I think Leaf PCP is cheaper than PCH because RCI take a 'high risk factor' (read; zero chance!) of meeting the GFV to sell cars. Whereas Kia do nothing of the kind, and PCH is currently half the price of PCP.
Why PCH instead of PCP? ... The biggest incentives are usually on PCP. For PCH, 3rd party leasing companies might be better. TBH at 20,000 miles per year PCH is probably not going to work.
To address the specific question of why PCH and not PCP: Firstly all of the quotes for PCP came back significantly more expensive than PCH when we ran the exact same methodology with it. Moreover there was a significantly higher initial outlay and we simply do not posses that kind of capitol right now. To further clarify that, we have the cash flow but just not the capitol. In any event we can only assume that spending such a higher initial outlay would only yield a false economic i.e. the cost of the outlay is then distributed and combined with the perceived lower monthly outlay...

Lastly we just wanted a simple solution without the complexity of having to deal with owning a vehicle and all of the problems that come with it. To include consumables such as tires, breaks and even windshield wipers further lessened this. We don't have the time nor the inclination to care... Let someone else deal with it all.
Did you consider other finance options?
Yes and PCH not only seemed cheaper but more pragmatic given the reasoning outlined above.
Did you consider near new or used?
Yes we have considered used but again, we really do not want to have any of the grief and stress associated with ownership. We have been ripped off far too many times in the past and have taken cars home only to have them disintegrate and spill their guts on a driveway or worse, go into a spin on a motorway.

To further compound this we really don't want to have the aggravation of trying to sell or trade for something else in order to stay in that sort of bracket...
You are comparing the running cost of a brand new car vs. 14 year old cars. If you had compared a new ICE car to your current fleet, you would have reached the same conclusion: Fuel cost is small compared to the price of the car.
Simply comparing the MPG we did get that impression. Ours are between 29 and 34 and new ICE vehicles can be 50+?
I am not sure detailed calculations were necessary to know that an old ICE will be cheaper to own than a new EV. Perhaps there was some other agenda here?
What other agenda are you referring to?
Can I remind posters those numbers are for TWO cars each time not one. Can the OP edit to make it clear or maybe a mod...
Sorry about that, I've since tried to emphasise that detail a bit more.
 

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Strikes me that the high PCH costs for EVs are due to uncertainty concerning depreciation. With the technology advancing quite quickly (although really not as quickly as one would hope, but more than ICE) I can see that PCH is not a good fit.

There's no good way to achieve what you want, really, essentially as you want certainty from an inherently uncertain scenario.
 
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