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Discussion Starter #1
So latest (1 hour ago) stat from the John Hopkins Whiting School:
  • Italy, there are now 24,747 cases and 1,809 deaths (7.3%);
  • Spain, 7,844 cases and 294 deaths (3.7%);
  • Germany, 5,813 cases and 13 deaths (0.02%);
  • France, 5,437 cases and 127 deaths (2.3%);
  • Switzerland, 2,200 cases and 24 deaths (1.1%).
The other two national outbreaks of concerns are in South Korea (8,162 cases and 75 deaths) and Iran (13,938 cases and 724 deaths).

Spain, Italy and France are on lockdown, as are many other EU states. They are taking the risk seriously.

The question is, are we prepared to tolerate 300,000, 600,000 or 900,000 deaths over this?

I‘m just looking for an acceptable number, that’s all.

 

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Lack of ICU beds in the UK and limited Coronavirus testing left the UK Government with few choices left, lets hope their gamble pays off with self isolating if you have a cough or fever, my wife has been self isolating since Friday with a cough but appears to be recovering so hopefully a false alarm...
 

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Spain, Italy and France are on lockdown, as are many other EU states. They are taking the risk seriously.
Or are they just panicking and doing what Twitter demands? (Science based on popular opinion.)

I‘m just looking for an acceptable number, that’s all.
Plenty of people say you can't put a (high enough) value on human life, others are happy murderers. So there will never be an agreed number.
 

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Zoe Devotee
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Nope. But time will tell.
 

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We lose around 30,000 per year to 'Flu and take little action over that. However, the numbers here are a different order.

How long will people be willing to have an Italian / Spanish lockdown? The numbers will continue to grow even with a lockdown and the danger is that people will cease to obey arguing that it doesn't apply to them, at which point it will really take off. China is a different culture, so whilst it might have worked there it doesn't mean that it will in the same way here. Asking the over 70's to stay at home for 3-6 months is only likely to mean that they die quietly out of the spotlight. Some may say that the limited resources should be used to save those with a long potentially healthy life ahead of them - rationing life most other treatment.

To me the biggest issue is the current mortality figures which are being compared to the known infections which are collected on a different basis. We don't know how many people have truly had the disease, but we do know that most of the deaths in the UK are from people with "underlying health conditions". It will make a huge difference if mortality is 5%, 1% or 0.2%.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Plenty of people say you can't put a (high enough) value on human life, others are happy murderers. So there will never be an agreed number.
We can and do all the time. In aviation and trains it’s about £1.5M per head. :)

The question here is what we think we would tolerate in terms of deaths at any price.
 

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It is also difficult to value all lives equally - is a bedbound 90 year old with serious dementia and cancer with a diagnosis of 6 months of the same value as a fit and healthy 21 year old? In an ideal world with unlimited resources maybe, but that isn't the one that we live in whatever the proponents of the NHS Ponzi scheme might claim.
 

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I don't think they're sleepwalking in to this, I think they know what they are doing in terms of their herd immunity strategy. I don't think they meant to let that dirty little secret slip out over the weekend though. Whether what they are doing is the right thing is certainly open to debate and logistically, yes they've sleep walked into this.

Because they have now all but stopped testing, statistics regarding the number of new cases and case fatality rate will be hard for us, as the public, to interpret and compare to the RoW.

From here it looks like South Korea have the best strategy, time will tell. South Korea will find it hard to contain the virus long term without damaging their economy but they are buying time and in that time we will learn more about how to treat this virus and produce vaccines.
 

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It looks like Italy are heading towards disaster. The UK may well avoid it, especially if there is are even more lethal 2nd and 3rd waves as happened with the Spanish Flu which cost 50-100 million lives and had a mortality rate of around 2.5%. Rationing of lives has also taken place in China, Iran etc currently and could happen in the US.




What we can see from the senseless stockpiling behaviour is that the veneer of civilisation is very thin indeed everywhere.
 

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I wonder when they discovered that he had COVID-19? It wouldn't surprise me to learn that it was post-mortem.
 

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Interesting that the death of a man in his ‘50s in Salisbury wasn’t announced until just now, 5 days later.
The wording sounds like he was only tested just now, post mortem, so maybe not as suspicious as it might seem.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
The wording sounds like he was only tested just now, post mortem, so maybe not as suspicious as it might seem.
I wasn’t suggesting conspiracy, merely commenting on the inherent lag in the system in terms of identifying the disease.

Looking at current stats clearly doesn’t show the whole picture.
 

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The wording sounds like he was only tested just now, post mortem, so maybe not as suspicious as it might seem.
Its interesting how everyone seems to think they've got a right to know how and when someone died. It happened, its been reported, that's all we need. I spoke to folk locally who've said "we really should know where these people live so we can avoid that area" Like somehow that makes a difference and how that persons anonymity is somehow not allowed.
 

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