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We have been over this before and clearly do not agree.
True. But your belief that a single particle will give you the disease doesn't line up with the international rollout of tracking apps using time-distance as an alert parameter.
Can you provide any evidence that the risk is as high as you think?
 

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A typically incoherent article in The Times today proposing that Pressure to free London from lockdown as cases fall
Ignoring the absence of any moral justice that the source of the epidemic in the UK should gain further benefit, it completely fails to address how you enforce movement restrictions across arbitrary lines inside England.
 

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On public transport you are advised to open windows if possible - same principle.
I have ALWAYS opened windows on public transport for precisely that reason, if there is one.

I'd open a window on a 'plane if they put one there.

Grumpy sods always then try to close the window straight away, even if it on a bus or such with condensate rolling off the windows like a waterfall.

'You had this coming, mankind', says an OCD to the general unwashed population.
 

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Actually it's much worse than that in central government. The lack of promotion prospects due to 'dead wood' means the de-motivation of able people who are not being used or empowered to act to their full potential. Selection to the Senior Civil Service looks for a certain type of person who is is a driven elitist like those already in the 'First Eleven' as their union is known. This leads to dangerous group think and the silencing of those who are not willing to fit inside the box and could offer the needed challenge to the established order. Too much job security often supports a manager turning into a bully because they are fireproof. The civil service often attracts insecure folk who need to climb the ladder of promotion to massage their damaged egos.

The Civil Service does need major overhaul because promotion tends to the reward for those who introduce change not those who complete it and deliver it. Thus with COVID-19 you are seeing systemic failure to link policy with successful execution. Those who catch a minster's ear or eye lie throu' their teeth with unrealistic delivery dates and promises often find favour. Nobody gets promoted for being the bearer of bad news or even realism despite the fact that it is the duty of the civil service is to speak truth to power. That went years ago. The nimble are covered in non-stick and always seem to move on before the 's*** hits the fan' leaving somebody else to pick up the pieces or worse the blame.
I think all organisations are like that, certainly all the large corporations I worked in.
 

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True. But your belief that a single particle will give you the disease doesn't line up with the international rollout of tracking apps using time-distance as an alert parameter.
Governments use isolation (aka Shielding) to protect individuals. In contrast, Tracking apps are an attempt to balance aggregate population health risks against operational efficiency in an economy. In other words tracking apps are to protect population averages, and not intended to protect individuals.

Can you provide any evidence that the risk is as high as you think?
The mechanisms for viral infections are well understood. They are studied at the level of a single virion and a single vulnerable cell. The process is comparable to the fertilisation of a single ovum by a single spermatozoon. That single virion and single spermatozoon each need to complete their respective journeys from end-to-end without help from their peers - they do not compete in a baton race.

Analogy: Men with low sperm counts are less likely to get their partners pregnant, and a man producing just one sperm would have very low chance, but in either case when they do get their partner pregnant the impact is the same.
 

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A typically incoherent article in The Times today proposing that Pressure to free London from lockdown as cases fall
Ignoring the absence of any moral justice that the source of the epidemic in the UK should gain further benefit, it completely fails to address how you enforce movement restrictions across arbitrary lines inside England.
Did you watch the recent Amazon Prime/BBC production of Good Omens? That showed fairly clearly how you could enforce restrictions on movement inside and outside the M25. Or read the book, but for those who prefer the video here's the relevant section:

 

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True. But your belief that a single particle will give you the disease doesn't line up with the international rollout of tracking apps using time-distance as an alert parameter.
Can you provide any evidence that the risk is as high as you think?
There is a spectrum of risk, isn't there? If you are in the same space as an infectious person there is always at least a tiny risk of infection, but there is also no situation where the risk is 100%. Covid19 is not THAT infectious (apparently measles and chicken pox are 3-4 times more infectious), so you could be in close proximity for a long time and be lucky, or you could just been in the same grandstand at a sports event or on a crowded beach and be unlucky.

My mathematical mind is screaming that, in a crowded space, even if every individual has only a tiny risk, when multiplied by 000s, the risk of someone contracting it must be close to - but of course not exactly - 100%.
 

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The Horizon that was on last week mentioned how infectious it is. I think the R value is something like 2.6. They showed how it spread in one office in Munich that was the start of one outbreak.
 

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Analogy: Men with low sperm counts are less likely to get their partners pregnant, and a man producing just one sperm would have very low chance,
That looks like you agree that the risk of infection is proportional (in some way) to the number of particles 'ingested'.
Which is exactly what I've understood to be the case for years.

As @Bertie says above, the risk is between tiny and almost certain, but never 0 or 100%.
 

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@mikegs, I have not ignored risk in our debates. If we have been in agreement on the mechanisms throughout, then we have remarkably different levels of risk tolerance.

For a tangible measure of my risk appetite: I have produced derivatives trading approach with 95% wins, and all wins larger in magnitude than the losses. I am a former engineer with a bespoke automated trading platform that has been tested with a broker and an exchange. I have never capitalised this venture - much to the frustration of those around me. Would you agree with them that I am excessively cautious?

My view is if the 5% of bad trades came early in the sequence of trades then I might never recover from the financial damage. Bringing this back to Covid19, I value my health more than my wealth. If the government announces it is 95% safe on the underground, I am staying home!
 

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I think all organisations are like that, certainly all the large corporations I worked in.
Indeed, that has been my experience. When you take a business unit much above 150 people your overheads sharply rise and efficiency/output reduces. So many companies that grow quickly go wrong when they get to between 200 and 300 people. Often the right thing to do is split and to have two companies of about 150 and keep it agile and each under the direct control of one person who is accessible to all and knows all. Years ago Parkinson (of Parkinson's Law fame) suggested that if you got the critical mass of 500 civil servants together in one place they could fully occupy the working day writing memos to each other without any contact or interaction with the outside world at all. :oops:

It would be interesting to see how the key teams producing COVID poicy and delivery are structured and sized. I bet the left hand knows not what the right hand is doing and management are 'filtering' reports on progress.
 

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So why are you imprisoned in London, rather than on some smallholding in the country?
Due to the complexity of negotiations in my family. Similar domestic pressures are possibly why we see huge swathes of the population crowd together each time the government appears to relax its message on Covid19 health issues.
 

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we have remarkably different levels of risk tolerance.
Markedly different certainly. Remarkable? Probably not.
There are plenty of people with risk tolerance similar to each of us - though many of them probably have no idea of what risk tolerance even means. :)

Would you agree with them that I am excessively cautious?
I don't know enough about trading software to be able to judge that.
 
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