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... only "25 percent of respondents also reported unpleasant health effects from exposures to cleaning products, such as dizziness, skin irritation, nausea, and breathing problems".

That is impressive!
 

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Statistically speaking, that's hilarious.

So, at the start whether people thought they were doing well or badly was just random, 50/50, but people were less eager to criticise at the beginning so abstained if that was their immediate impression.

Of those that abstained, about a half of those (again randomly 50/50 of that remainder) decided they were doing well after all.

Then after all of those finally made up their mind and there was near 100% positive answers, about a half of everyone put aside their original opinion and re-randomised back to 50/50!

Utter, complete random opinions of a binary outcome!!

The only 'statistic' of any merit that can be drawn from that is that people tended to reserve their opinion in the first flush of the timeline if they tended to thing Gov was probably doing badly. Everything after that is just a slow drift of randomised 50/50 outcomes.
 

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Given the virus has a two week gestation period, the underlying data used in models must be two weeks old. Do the models project last known trend forward by 2 weeks to estimate today's dormant/unknown infections?

If not, then the news suggests to me that two weeks ago, when the UK was firmly inside its May lockdown:
  • There was huge uncertainty in the figures.
  • Relaxing lockdown threatened to put pressure on the "R number" to increase.
  • We were pretty close to R equals one whichever way you look at it.
:sick:
 

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Given the virus has up to a two week gestation,
FTFY
Your concern is based on an incorrect basis, most of the cases appear in around 5 days. You should take the R0 number with a barrel of salt given it is a rolling 7 day average and subject to revision for the daily numbers.
On a related point, I am beginning to believe that there is something going on with the profile of the K number which is causing the drop rather than the simple R0 number. I think that this is behind Matt Hancock's plea over the protests this weekend which is being interpreted by the anti-racists as against them and hence racist.
 

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..most of the cases appear in around 5 days.
(y)

..it is a rolling 7 day average..
Incubation of 5 days plus 6 samples with no average gives 11 days lag before considering that the values are constantly revising. If reported infections are backdated then the historic trend is mutable, so I am going to hope they do not do that.

My view is that the historic trend is not projected forward to estimate a current R value, but its all too opaque for my liking - surely the models used should be open source?!
 

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Btw, I am reading into your reply a view that the trend is not projected forward to estimate today's R value.
If it is then it is statistically wrong when the subject is changing, e.g. weather, mass gatherings, lockdown changes.
 

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If it is then it is statistically wrong when the subject is changing, e.g. weather, mass gatherings, lockdown changes.
I agree. Btw, I am thinking aloud ;)

A statistically unsubstantiated estimate strikes me as preferable to purely historic data. Analogy: surely it's safer to walk forwards blindfolded, than it is to walk backwards?
 

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.... surely it's safer to walk forwards blindfolded, than it is to walk backwards?
Err.. I am going to have to think about that!........

Just for clarification, do you mean backwards while looking forwards (un-blindfolded?)

phew, difficult philosophical questions at the weekend!...
 

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According to that great philosopher Spike Milligan, you have to do it across the Irish Sea.

Also everyone will say that it's a publicly stunt.
 

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(y)


Incubation of 5 days plus 6 samples with no average gives 11 days lag before considering that the values are constantly revising. If reported infections are backdated then the historic trend is mutable, so I am going to hope they do not do that.

My view is that the historic trend is not projected forward to estimate a current R value, but its all too opaque for my liking - surely the models used should be open source?!
Estimating the time-varying reproduction... | Wellcome Open Research

There is opensource stuff on Github eg.
https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid
 

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Just for clarification, do you mean backwards while looking forwards (un-blindfolded?)
"R number" discussions focus on:
  • Old data.
  • Even older trend analysis.
Those are comfortable things to discuss because they are known knowns. Those knows are great for narrators of history. The problem with commentary about the past is that we are all constantly moving into the future. There is discomfort with forward-looking predictions because there is a high probability that those predictions will be wrong.

There seems to me to be a split between two groups of people in the debate:
  • Those who want to talk about the past.
    • They can see the past clearly. They are moving into the future. They continue to focus on the past.
    • I liken this to walking backwards.
  • Those who want to estimate the future.
    • They can see the past clearly. They are moving into the future. They cannot see the future, and try to estimate it.
    • I liken this to walking forwards blindfolded.
The models used to estimate future trends need to be disclosed in order for forward-looking debates to draw on facts.

(The majority of people ignore the debate and go for a beer on a beach).
 

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Looks like R is on the way back up again.

For those with borked clients that don't embed twitter:

So the ‘R’ numbers now are: North West - 1.01 (was 0.73) South West - 1 South East - 0.97 London - 0.95 (was 0.40) East - 0.94 Midlands - 0.90 North East and Yorkshire - 0.89 But yes, let’s stop the lockdown, go back to work and send our children back to school. Fantastic.
130958


The graph can be found in the second source linked from the twitter thread.
 

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Statistically speaking, that's hilarious.
I think British people just can't admit when they screwed up.

People voted for those clowns and are responsible for what happened this year. Admitting that is going to be even harder than admitting brexit was a bad idea. Instead it's just denial and tribalism, say they are doing a good job even if they aren't.

Boris leads the way for them, saying he is proud of his record on COVID-19 even though we are the worst in Europe and it's been botched start to finish. Seems that's what people do now, just lie to themselves and everyone else instead of owning up to their mistakes.
 

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....
People voted for those clowns and are responsible for what happened this year....
The options were clowns with big blue shoes or clowns with big red ones.

The 'responsibility' likes in a population of acquiescent sheep, like @cah192; "If you don't like it, go somewhere else" sort of thing.

You're commitment to the leftist cause is duly noted and this marks you on a list so, at least, you won't be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. I'd probably be one of the first at the wall, if I even made it there. It's people with an attitude like that who change things. Tagging along with rhetoric leftist dogma is just silly. Try speaking for yourself. 'Your' crowd fully back the Gov in this tragedy this year, you backed them, and so you're responsible.

I'm not. I don't vote for clowns with coloured shoes. I vote for the clowns with no shoes. Usually they don't even have feet; I vote for the least popular looking candidates so at least they get a chance of getting their deposits backs, the least I can do for someone who has put in the effort when everyone else, like you, acquiesces to a political mantra. It's easier for you to do that, I realise, but it'd be nice for once to see you agree with something that 'the others' do and condemn your own kind. It'd show you think for yourself. People who don't think for themselves are the problem here, so it'd be better, in my mind, if you didn't look like one of those quite all the time.
 

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I think British people just can't admit when they screwed up.

People voted for those clowns and are responsible for what happened this year. Admitting that is going to be even harder than admitting brexit was a bad idea. Instead it's just denial and tribalism, say they are doing a good job even if they aren't.

Boris leads the way for them, saying he is proud of his record on COVID-19 even though we are the worst in Europe and it's been botched start to finish. Seems that's what people do now, just lie to themselves and everyone else instead of owning up to their mistakes.
What would be different if Corbyn* had been in power? The Civil Service would still be as inadequate and recommending the same actions, then failing to carry them out effectively. Nowhere in the Labour manifesto at the last election is PPE mentioned, and it was Labour who started the process of privitising the procurement and storage of it. Your current Leader is making no helpful suggestions for alternative strategies, just sniping around issues after the event. It was 13 years of Labour rhetoric over being at the centre of Europe that lead the majority of voters to believe that the EU could never work for the UK, and recent events like the handling of the Pandemic have done nothing to change that.

* I have no desire to have people die, but given his age and health I wonder whether Corbyn would have survived the dose of Covid-19 that was administered to No10 by Prof Ferguson? It would not have been a good time to lose a leader, particularly not in such a disunited party. Would Abbott have taken over?
 

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Lets face it - the government and the elites that can become them still think it's the 15th century, the vast majority of the public think that anti-racism and standing up for coloured people involves loads of them getting together and possibly dying, especially the coloured people who we know die easier from covid - and POTUS can't even string a sentence together without looking like an idiot. If you're reasonably intelligent, and can work stuff out for yourself, you're doomed to a life of venting your frustration on an EV forum !!
 

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I think British people just can't admit when they screwed up.

People voted for those clowns and are responsible for what happened this year. Admitting that is going to be even harder than admitting brexit was a bad idea. Instead it's just denial and tribalism, say they are doing a good job even if they aren't.

Boris leads the way for them, saying he is proud of his record on COVID-19 even though we are the worst in Europe and it's been botched start to finish. Seems that's what people do now, just lie to themselves and everyone else instead of owning up to their mistakes.
@Rei Two points of factual correction to help counter your determination to find selective evidence after deciding the conclusion which seems driven by political bias. Still you are in good company with the bishops of the C of E.

Basis of comparison is difficult due the the number of variables but a key one is the difference in populations so deaths per 100K helps deal with that. On that basis Belgium is the worst effected country. The difference between Spain, Italy and France and the UK is on that measure small. So far Germany is the standout success in Europe. Italy suffered hospitals going into overload and folk being sent home to die since there is little interchange and mutual working between hospitals as we have with NHS Trusts and Regions.

It is not over so saying 'it is botched from start to finish' is emotive tosh and suggests you have a time machine and have seen how it ends. If you know - do share!

I think we are allowing lockdown and social distancing to crumble too soon and R0 is too close to 1 to have any margin for error. We live in a democracy so we have a degree of freedom to decide for ourselves and take responsibility for our actions. Personally I have adjusted lockdown so I go shopping once every ten days instead of seven and introduced once every two weeks do a B&Q run to keep the redecorating of the house supplied and avoid mental rot as a result of inactivity. So overall my lockdown is no different. I avoid busy places for exercise and take long walks a couple of times a week right out into countryside not known to the average tourist.

So are your own actions measuring up to your angst or are you going to take no personal responsibility at all and blame the government for everything?
 

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"R number" discussions focus on:
  • Old data.
  • Even older trend analysis.
Those are comfortable things to discuss because they are known knowns. Those knows are great for narrators of history. The problem with commentary about the past is that we are all constantly moving into the future. There is discomfort with forward-looking predictions because there is a high probability that those predictions will be wrong.

There seems to me to be a split between two groups of people in the debate:
  • Those who want to talk about the past.
    • They can see the past clearly. They are moving into the future. They continue to focus on the past.
    • I liken this to walking backwards.
  • Those who want to estimate the future.
    • They can see the past clearly. They are moving into the future. They cannot see the future, and try to estimate it.
    • I liken this to walking forwards blindfolded.
The models used to estimate future trends need to be disclosed in order for forward-looking debates to draw on facts.

(The majority of people ignore the debate and go for a beer on a beach).
It is fine to go for a beer on the beach, if you are young, or the beach is not too crowded. The 'lockdown' is a very crude, and expensive, solution.
 
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