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If people think this virus just disappears then you are kidding yourselves

as has been pointed out, people can have it and have limited symptoms so it can still be in circulation and will always be in circulation

this is all about positioning the country to manage it’s old, ill and vulnerable.

the NHS has been awesome over e past few weeks supporting my FIL who was in IC with renal failure and sepsis - and we would have lost him if there had not been the resource to support him.

this isn’t just about keeping covid people alive

by isolating early, we just move the peak to after we come out of isolation

but if people think they know better than the Chief Scientific Advisor, Chief Medical Officer and all the Govt Advisors together then I’m looking forward to the cure being developed by someone currently in their house delivering social commentary ;)

I didn’t vote for boris, I think some of the messaging has been contradictory and confusing but the approach is defo sound

JJ
 

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I do think everyone's forgetting that this is a global emergency - you know, the rainy day that you're supposed to know is coming and you save up for !! I know it's harsh, but many (but not all I know) people do have the ability to save some, they don't have to splash it all on cars / phones / holidays / drink etc
Really, the old "dip into your savings and sell your iPhone" argument? We have just had 10 years of austerity and zero hour contracts and unaffordable housing. People are struggling just to get by, let alone save up.
 

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If people think this virus just disappears then you are kidding yourselves

as has been pointed out, people can have it and have limited symptoms so it can still be in circulation and will always be in circulation

this is all about positioning the country to manage it’s old, ill and vulnerable.

the NHS has been awesome over e past few weeks supporting my FIL who was in IC with renal failure and sepsis - and we would have lost him if there had not been the resource to support him.

this isn’t just about keeping covid people alive

by isolating early, we just move the peak to after we come out of isolation

but if people think they know better than the Chief Scientific Advisor, Chief Medical Officer and all the Govt Advisors together then I’m looking forward to the cure being developed by someone currently in their house delivering social commentary ;)

I didn’t vote for boris, I think some of the messaging has been contradictory and confusing but the approach is defo sound

JJ
I’m not sure if you misunderstand my post - I agree that the peak must be shifted, the issue with the governments position (and the advice the advisor was giving by talking about herd immunity without a vaccine) was that it wasn’t shifting the peak, a fact that it took the imperial report for the penny to drop for them - that’s why I criticise the early policy - since that happened I think the right actions have been taken.

I do think it was a mistake to trust people would self isolate but even I can’t believe how many flouted that over the weekend so I don’t feel I blame the government for that clanger
 

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The peak was delayed by self isolating
Then further delayed by no unnecessary travel
Then further delayed by wfh
Then further delayed by lock down

I think the herd immunity was the best way of describing why they weren’t just isolating everyone straight away

immunity in the flow of the virus has a similar effect to isolating but without the billion £ price tag

JJ
 

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Interestingly my friend in HKG who’s kids have been off school since Jan and went through an early lock down are now experiencing a peak as people start to travel again and go back to work so they have started to reinstate some restrictions again

JJ
 

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I'm wondering what's going to happen in India. It looks sort of OK at present but I have a bad feeling.
They also have the problem that a proper lockdown will lead to starvation of many people, so it's going to be hard to enforce for any length of time. I'd think riots are a real risk.
 

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Interestingly my friend in HKG who’s kids have been off school since Jan and went through an early lock down are now experiencing a peak as people start to travel again and go back to work so they have started to reinstate some restrictions again

JJ
Well, yeah, duh!

A lock down isn't going to get rid of the virus. Hence I really don't understand why it is locking down everyone, rather than locking down the vulnerable.

If we lock down the vulnerable first, then the NHS can deal with the small number of hospitalised cases from the statistical outliers of the main, robust population, and then slowly re-introduce the vulnerable groups in a series of controlled 'releases', probably best by age groups and/or specific conditions. Oldest and those with respiratory disease are 'unlocked' last.

I mean, really, FFS, is it that hard to figure out?
 

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reports of a 21 with no health issues dying from the virus - hopefully that puts to an end any speculation that this isn’t a serious issue we are currently facing Coronavirus victim, 21, 'had no health issues'
In the face of a complete set of data in which this poor victim is the only person to not have an underlying medical condition identified, I think it would be more correct to say 'had no diagnosed health issues'.

There is also a case of the original doctor at the centre of this, and one other 36 year old too I think. The fact that I can list everyone in one paragraph under 50 without a diagnosed health condition would, surely, suggest the NHS really isn't going to get overloaded by under 50's?
 

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The peak was delayed by self isolating
Then further delayed by no unnecessary travel
Then further delayed by wfh
Then further delayed by lock down
Correct, except that’s not what the strategy was until last Monday, it was extremely poorly communicated by talking about he’d immunity

I think the herd immunity was the best way of describing why they weren’t just isolating everyone straight away
actually the herd immunity quote was widely criticised as the worst way to talk about strategy, it sends the message we should’ve been infecting as many as possible and many are expendable
 

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In the face of a complete set of data in which this poor victim is the only person to not have an underlying medical condition identified, I think it would be more correct to say 'had no diagnosed health issues'.

There is also a case of the original doctor at the centre of this, and one other 36 year old too I think. The fact that I can list everyone in one paragraph under 50 without a diagnosed health condition would, surely, suggest the NHS really isn't going to get overloaded by under 50's?
putting aside this evidence people without health issues dying, the main issue has always been ICU capacity, even if it were only the old who actually die - Many hospitals in London are already bouncing off capacity with no free ICU beds - when they are full then people who wouldn’t normally die would begin to die


i saw a report on the TV yesterday that testing is restricted due to low numbers of tests and even death rate data “officially” reported isn’t accurate as parents have to give consent - so if you’re looking for an accurate picture as a member of the public you’re not seeing it, so you can’t say that healthy people arent dying yet there just isn’t enough data
 

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Discussion Starter #552
A lock down isn't going to get rid of the virus. Hence I really don't understand why it is locking down everyone, rather than locking down the vulnerable.
Why can’t you understand the simplest of concepts?

No one has said they will ‘get rid’ of the virus.

The point of the lockdown (as has been stated many times on the news and on here) is to reduce the infection rate, and therefore serious cases in order to avoid the collapse of the health system.

We are merely mitigating the number of deaths we will see, if not in absolute terms then certainly the rate of deaths from this disease.

I hope you now understand that there are many people with ‘underlying conditions’ that are not due to die in 10 months and would normally live long and fruitful lives.
 

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Discussion Starter #553
OK, now I’m very worried about the US. Especially as I have friends there and I don’t think they truly understand what’s coming.

Infection rates are almost three times higher than anywhere else. In 2-3 day’s time they will have more confirmed cases than China.

Deaths haven’t properly kicked in yet, as the hospitalised cases are building - of course there’s a lag in this.

My concern is that the US culture is too attached to their ‘freedom’ and also have a deep distrust of central government. They also love their economy and making money. This could backfire terribly for them.
 

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putting aside this evidence people without health issues dying, the main issue has always been ICU capacity, even if it were only the old who actually die - Many hospitals in London are already bouncing off capacity with no free ICU beds - when they are full then people who wouldn’t normally die would begin to die
Yes. And? I am not disagreeing with this.

What I want to know, though, is how many under 50s would be expected to require hospitalisation if they get infected?

If that is 'too many' then how many under 40s.

Etc.

Point is that if we want to flatten the curve in just one sweeping distribution over time then the ONLY way to do that with ONLY one peak is to introduce a fixed group into 'circulation' at a time. Otherwise, it is obvious (and I don't need to be a friggin' professor of some arcane idea-shop to figure this out) that we will get a series of repeated peaks.
 

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Why can’t you understand the simplest of concepts?

No one has said they will ‘get rid’ of the virus.

The point of the lockdown (as has been stated many times on the news and on here) is to reduce the infection rate, and therefore serious cases in order to avoid the collapse of the health system.

We are merely mitigating the number of deaths we will see, if not in absolute terms then certainly the rate of deaths from this disease.

I hope you now understand that there are many people with ‘underlying conditions’ that are not due to die in 10 months and would normally live long and fruitful lives.
Why can't you understand the simplest of concepts?

If we are ALL in lock down and we ALL come out at the same time 3 weeks later, we're just delaying whatever peak there will be for 3 weeks time.

The simple concept you are failing to grasp, my simple friend, is that if we have controlled groups of people mingling in society then we will take control of the numbers of those people requiring hospitalisation from each of those groups.
 

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Discussion Starter #556
What I want to know, though, is how many under 50s would be expected to require hospitalisation if they get infected?
Why do you keep suggesting that anyone over 50 is ‘end of life’?

Please run the numbers for yourself to see how the ICUs would get overloaded in a heartbeat and people would be left to die in corridors.

My fear is you won’t have to wait long to see this for yourself. Why don’t you pop over to the London Excel centre to see the hospital they’re setting up there with support from the military?
 

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Discussion Starter #557
Why can't you understand the simplest of concepts?

If we are ALL in lock down and we ALL come out at the same time 3 weeks later, we're just delaying whatever peak there will be for 3 weeks time.

The simple concept you are failing to grasp, my simple friend, is that if we have controlled groups of people mingling in society then we will take control of the numbers of those people requiring hospitalisation from each of those groups.
No. You don’t understand.

A lockdown only slows the progression of the virus that is already present in many that don’t know they have it.

Just looks the data from Italy and Spain to see how confirmed cases and deaths continue to rise even after a complete lockdown.

I realise you are just and engineer and not an epidemiologist, but just take the time to read up on this. Of course by the weekend I’m sure you’ll be fully onside and state that you understood it all along. ;)
 

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Why do you keep suggesting that anyone over 50 is ‘end of life’?
Whaaaaat the F are you talking about NOW?

I am saying that healthy under 50s are to all intent and purpose immune. They don't need to isolate because they won't bung up the hospitals if they get ill with it. They'll be tucked up in bed with a lemsip. And if they do turn up to hospital then send them home.

Once THAT protocol is understood, then there is no problem keeping the rest in isolation.
 

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No. You don’t understand.

A lockdown only slows the progression of the virus that is already present in many that don’t know they have it.

Just looks the data from Italy and Spain to see how confirmed cases and deaths continue to rise even after a complete lockdown.

I realise you are just and engineer and not an epidemiologist, but just take the time to read up on this. Of course by the weekend I’m sure you’ll be fully onside and state that you understood it all along. ;)
No. You don't understand.

I am saying we should WANT to accelerate the progression in those who will not be hospitalised because of it. Then, whatever happened to them when they had it, has been done, out of the way, move on with life.

They are all going to get it anyway when we emerge, why wait for 3 weeks if they aren't going to require hospitalisation anyway, and if there are a few that might, then better that happens at a time when the hospitals can cope. Or just send them away anyway because they're not going to die from it.
 

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Discussion Starter #560
Whaaaaat the F are you talking about NOW?

I am saying that healthy under 50s are to all intent and purpose immune. They don't need to isolate because they won't bung up the hospitals if they get ill with it. They'll be tucked up in bed with a lemsip. And if they do turn up to hospital then send them home.

Once THAT protocol is understood, then there is no problem keeping the rest in isolation.
OK, let me give you a simple example.

Imagine a care home full of elderly. Almost all of the carers are young and under 40, fit and healthy.

Now imagine what happens when one of them catches the virus and doesn’t show any symptoms?

This is exactly what is driving the deaths in places like Spain where they have almost 100 deaths in one facility.

It’s heartbreaking.
 
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