[halcyonrichard]

Just been looking at the number of EV sales (all types). In 2014 the percentage of new cars that were EV's was 0.59%. In March this year it was 1.37%. It looks like sales for EV's is accelerating all the time. Looks more like an exponential curve. Just really happy about that and wonder where it will all end.

From Plug-in electric vehicles in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Richard

 

[Mikey]

It will probably change a little this year, since the grant available to PHEVs and EVs has been reduced.

2018 will be an Interesting year.

 

[John Riley]

Just looked at the latest EV sales figures for March and it makes interesting reading. Here are the figures for the last Three months.
BEV 3,164 up 20% year on year.
PHEV 7,332 up 24% yoy.
Hybrid petrol 14,772 up 32% yoy.
Hybrid diesel 444 down 58% yoy.

Since January 2011 58,186 cars have eligible for the plug in grant.

With this rate of growth will we see 100,000 by the end of the year and is the interest in Electric car pushing people to buy Petrol hybrids before they opt to go for the plug.

As people get more accustomed to EV's and the choice becomes greater then sales are just going to go up. Also lack lustre manufacturers are going to up their game or lose sales. Just look how the Outlander is a success this must be hurting rivals.

 

[halcyonrichard]

Just had another thought about this. With some rapids having queues. If there are 300 rapids on the electric highway does that number need to double every year as well ? Ecotricity website shows 2 planned (at Sandbach on the M6). I am sure they are putting them in faster than that. Does any body know the plans for the next few years ?

Richard

 

[MoonCat]

In theory yes, but if newer EVs have longer ranges they won't need to be rapid charged as often which should help things.

There is then the concern that people are abusing the free charging on the EH and would stop immediately if even a small charge was introduced. You only have to look at some of the many threads on the subject. Some are happy to pay a small cost for the convenience and others believe charging should continue to be free. Someone somewhere has to pay for the machines and maintenance so remaining free isn't going to happen.

 

[John Riley]

More Rapids are desirable along with destination charging however as the vast majority of charging is done at home, 32A is the way forward in home chargers.

 

[Ed Straker's Car]

Fleet Lease - Company Car BIK increases are driving Hybrid - Plug In PHEV sales , Golf GTE, Audi e-Tron , Outlander 4x4 .

Most will be lashed up and down motorways on PH rather than EV , however that will result in rising numbers off lease nearly new 2nd hand motors dropping into the market in 2-3 years time , question is will they be ' obsolete; by that time ?

 

[Wowbagger]

There's a lovely piece of maths to be done involving the increasing number of EVs on the road, the increasing range, and the location/numbers of rapid chargers.

When the 30kwh Leaf appeared, that allowed for considerably longer journeys between chargers. With the 24kwh Leaf, the chargers really need to be about 50 miles apart as a bare minimum, on the basis that you don't want to be charging too early, nor too often. Anything under 70 miles and I don't need a rapid charge. More than that, and I almost certainly will.

At the moment, I tend to "leapfrog" chargers. For a typical full day (250 miles by my definition - the battery temperature will be getting pretty high by that time, and my appetite for driving will be sated) I will leave Southend with 100% and then charge around the 70 mile mark, and then each subsequent 50 miles. I should be able to get to Burnley (sis-in-law) or S. Wales (Brecon Beacons holiday) on 3 rapid charges.

With the 30kwh battery, my experience, limited to 1 weekend's test driving, would indicate that leaving home with 100% would allow a full 100 miles before charging, then 80 miles for each subsequent charge. I ought to be able to do the 250 mile trip on just 2 charges, and presumably a rather cooler battery.

Now here's a big assumption: that London will be the starting point of a relatively high percentage of long trips. Assuming that the 30kwh Leaf is going to be around for a while (big assumption number 2), does that mean that there should be a big bank of chargers on each motorway about 100 miles from London?

 

[John Riley]

All good figures but BEV's are looking the poor relation compared to hybrid and plug in hybrid sales. The reduction in PHEV subsidies doesn't seem to have affected their sales.

 

[MoonCat]

19% increase year on year is pretty good isn't it?

Just imagine if VW actually actively sold their e-Golf and e-UP too?

 

[Hairy Leafer]

Its not hard to imagine them at least doubling year on year. I dont see it as being any different to the adoption of digital cameras or smart phones.

When I bought my leaf and enthused about it so much that a friend and family member went on to buy one, even after not even realising that they existed a few months earlier.
This year a collegue at work and another friend have bought them after hearing my experiences and a client who usually only considers sporty diesels has gone for a GTE.
If they do the same with their extended friends and family its not hard to imagine take up rates not only doubling again but quadrupling the year after

 

[EVPotential]

View attachment 11515
All good figures but BEV's are looking the poor relation compared to hybrid and plug in hybrid sales. The reduction in PHEV subsidies doesn't seem to have affected their sales.

Just to confuse things more. .. the i3 REX is 60% of i3 sales and will appear in the PHEV list despite having a range nearly as much as a leaf.

Will we need now rapids.. yes but as already said with fees reducing demand and battery ranges getting longer then it might not be add many as first needed. Biggest problem will be bank holidays when all the EV that rarely need charging as they do less than battery range each day, suddenly need 1 or more rapid stops to get somewhere.

 

[John Riley]

Most people will not even realise VW sell any form of plug in @MoonCat . Even EV enthusiasts have a hard job spotting one so the car doesn't advertise itself unlike a Leaf i3 or even a Zoe.

 

[Ralf]

Not sure that's really true. My GTI owning colleague keeps commenting on how he likes the front LED arrangement on my GTE and how distinctive it is. The GTE logo is also a bit more obvious than the GTI or GTD logos.

 

[John Riley]

Agreed the visual clues are there but to the everyday person it's just another Golf or E Up. Which is great and I have no problem with that, but it does mean without any advertising who knows that VW produce what is most probably the largest range of electric vehicles of any manufacturer.

 

[Ready to charge]

I think what people forget is it's not just that electric cars are greener and quieter - they are much much more fun to drive. I've taken lots of people for a ride and many say "I want one".

I think with all the new models that are coming out we'll see a big uptick in sales. I also think that the publicity surrounding the Tesla Model 3 has caught people's attention and this will help sales of all electric cars. People are starting to realise that they are not necessarily slow or limited in range and that their performance is pretty amazing.

At the moment, having said all of that, electric cars are still relatively expensive (at least, new one's are). Once they become cheaper than regular cars, then i think we'll see a sudden massive increase in sales.

 

[EVPotential]

I think what people forget is it's not just that electric cars are greener and quieter - they are much much more fun to drive. I've taken lots of people for a ride and many say "I want one".

I think with all the new models that are coming out we'll see a big uptick in sales. I also think that the publicity surrounding the Tesla Model 3 has caught people's attention and this will help sales of all electric cars. People are starting to realise that they are not necessarily slow or limited in range and that their performance is pretty amazing.

At the moment, having said all of that, electric cars are still relatively expensive (at least, new one's are). Once they become cheaper than regular cars, then i think we'll see a sudden massive increase in sales.

Someone gets it. I bought a i3 not to save money or the planet but because it's better than anything I've driven previously (as a car for commuting in). Some people pay lots more for say a 335d vs a 320d. Both will end up doing 80ish mph on a motorway. The 335d might get used in anger a couple of times a week at the lights or on slip roads and costs more to run. The benefit of the electric drivetrain is you get better than diesel economy, acceleration of a petrol and more instant torque that even a 12 speed semi auto could match as you can go from idling along coming up to a set of lights to full power acceleration as they chance with no cog swapping required.

 

[Ralf]

So, I had just plugged into the on-street parking in town today (we've got a couple of 3.6kW posts) and started to walk away and this young kid, I'm guessing maybe 17, came up all excitedly - "is one of those yours?"

He asked about the range on mine, sadly only 20 miles on the Golf GTE, but when I mentioned the all-electric Golf he said straight away "oh, the e-Golf!" Talked a bit about the range of that, but I kept trying to tell him about the very nice Tesla in the other bay. Anyway, he excitedly told me about his first car that he'd only just got - a 1.0 Fiesta, but I could tell from the way he was talking that he'll be an EV convert in the coming years!

 

[Siraff]

Plenty of that percentage is phev's which will almost all be company car drivers taking them for the low bik rates. There have also been some massive price reductions and deals available on the zoe and leaf which will have moved a good few more than their original prices.
I think I'll be happier when they re-classify phev's as needing to have as much ev range as ice or at least 50 miles or something - with anything less being called a hybrid.
Average mileage is 12k/yr. That means 230mi/wk so 30-odd miles a day. Ignore holidays and rest days and that means 40+miles a day as an average when the car is being used.
When it is likely a car can cover an average day's use on ev power alone it's a phev (i3, Ampera, etc).
Things like the prius plug in with it's claimed 11 miles are really just hybrids with a bit of a boost.
They should also be able to do normal acceleration and any legal speed on ev alone and shouldn't need to fire the ice for a heater (mitsubishi!).

 

[EVPotential]

Plenty of that percentage is phev's which will almost all be company car drivers taking them for the low bik rates. There have also been some massive price reductions and deals available on the zoe and leaf which will have moved a good few more than their original prices.
I think I'll be happier when they re-classify phev's as needing to have as much ev range as ice or at least 50 miles or something - with anything less being called a hybrid.
Average mileage is 12k/yr. That means 230mi/wk so 30-odd miles a day. Ignore holidays and rest days and that means 40+miles a day as an average when the car is being used.
When it is likely a car can cover an average day's use on ev power alone it's a phev (i3, Ampera, etc).
Things like the prius plug in with it's claimed 11 miles are really just hybrids with a bit of a boost.
They should also be able to do normal acceleration and any legal speed on ev alone and shouldn't need to fire the ice for a heater (mitsubishi!).

Just to give you some alternative numbers. ...

6 of my colleagues now have outlanders. Only 1 is a company car. So on that basis most are not bought for low BiK but to get to work and back cheaper than any other car.

Apparently annual mileage had dropped significantly as more people own cars. 7,900 miles a year now.
Mobility

That means 22 miles a day assuming you use your car 360 days a year. I've included weekends and holidays as I don't tend to sit around doing nothing unless it's a long bank holiday and I'm doing gardening. But even then might do a tour of the garden centres. Xmas day. .. might be visiting family etc.