[CasperStorm]

If only Tesla made a van rather than mucking around with the Semi...

A Performance version might even keep up with a Sprinter on the motorway

 

[Sascha]

Last month I mentioned vans and their BEV sales are increasing very rapidly and the upwards trajectory is going to be quicker than cars were from 1%.

I wonder what the 'Other' in that table is?

 

[ringi]

I wonder what the 'Other' in that table is?

It will be things like the Ford Tansit hybred.

 

[John Riley]

Again it is the same story with overall sales down including the newcomers MHEV the only rise is in HEV and importantly BEV sales.

Tesla's big month would normally be June in this quarter and although it will be good, with factory shutdown in China it won't be as impressive as it could be.
Also the top ten is full of models that come with a plug but not the full top ten yet.

 

[John Riley]

And so we look at vans and BEV sales are increasing here too in an otherwise falling market 🙃.

But although changes are happening quickly we have a long way to go. However is 10% in a month a possibility before the years end? Now that would be fantastic 👏.

 

[John Riley]

Well the whole market is falling with the exception of BEV sales that were up 14.6%. Diesels again take the biggest fall in both old tech & MHEV. There will be questions going forward as it has been announced that as SMMT put it the scrapping of the Plugin grant means the UK is now the only major European market without incentives for private buyers.

Looking at the top ten the Model Y comes in at second place & tenth in the YTD chart. This is good given the Chinese plant shutdown and could be why the model 3 didn't make top ten. We also have MG in the top ten for the first time I think which has me wondering how many HS's were PHEV sales. Again the top tens have lots of Plugin vehicles with only a few exceptions that don't have a Plugin option.

 

[John Riley]

Last month I said how long before van sales hit 10% in a month well we might not have to wait to long. The question is how much is down to outside disruption given van sales are right down generally. But this argument applies to all vehicle sales as the last few years have had Brexit, COVID and now the Ukraine war. Finding trends is very difficult but the one certainly is BEV sales keep growing with more choices and better products.

 

[Crypto_Kid]

View attachment 163857
Well the whole market is falling with the exception of BEV sales that were up 14.6%. Diesels again take the biggest fall in both old tech & MHEV. There will be questions going forward as it has been announced that as SMMT put it the scrapping of the Plugin grant means the UK is now the only major European market without incentives for private buyers.
View attachment 163859
Looking at the top ten the Model Y comes in at second place & tenth in the YTD chart.

Despite what the press say and what you mostly read on here, it seems the silent Majority actually dont mind a Tesla Y lack of buttons, dont find the Tesla UI dangerous, and dont think the ride is terrible or even bad. But love a great performing BEV in a SUV format with a big hatch boot and lots of space, high up driving position with a great range and charging network options, and will happily pay £55k+ for one.

 

[John Riley]

Again the overall market is down with lots of supply issues to muddy the water. But some things are consistent like diesels heavy fall from grace, interestingly they are embracing MHEV technologies quicker than their petrol counterparts. BEV is up 9.9% which isn't as dramatic as we have become familiar with. PHEV is down a whopping 34% but like I say lots of supply issues, but over the year they are down 15.1%. So there are trends we can see as BEV is up 49.9% so far this year to 13.9% market share.

No real highlights in models in the best sellers list.

 

[EVJourney]

I'd hope they can hit 15 out of every 100 newly registered cars to be a BEV by the year end (whole year total). I wonder if/when the prices may become back down, probably be a couple of years maybe still.

 

[Parkwood]

I wonder what the effect is on the CO2 emissions from the conversion to petrol? Is it eating into the savings the BEV are making?

 

[Mrklaw]

wonder if we'll kill pure Diesel by 2025 at that rate? If we can split out consumer vs business use it may be faster than that with likely diesel vans dragging along for a while yet?

whats the difference between HEV which isn't split diesel/petrol, and MHEV which is?

 

[First Draft]

MHEV is an absolute con in any case.

 

[farmergiles]

Given that the BoE has just raised interest rate to 1.75%, predicted a recession and 13% inflation by the end of the year, I predict a collapse in new car sales including EVs (their sales not helped by the still rising charging costs).

This will at least give the manufacturers time to catch up and get stock in the showrooms for 2024.

 

[Mrklaw]

boggles my mind. I realise the BoE have only the one lever (interest rates) to influence inflation, but it seems short-sighted to act like this when so much is not demand driven. We aren't spending tons on discretionary items - we're spending more on food and heating. That doesn't go away. Is the thinking that enough of us will reduce discretionary spending (potentially triggering recession) and tryign to at least mitigate inflation a little bit? Because a lot of it will be baked in with energy prices etc

 

[farmergiles]

boggles my mind. I realise the BoE have only the one lever (interest rates) to influence inflation, but it seems short-sighted to act like this when so much is not demand driven. We aren't spending tons on discretionary items - we're spending more on food and heating. That doesn't go away. Is the thinking that some will reduce discretionary prices (potentially triggering recession) and tryign to at least mitigate inflation a little bit? Because a lot of it will be baked in with energy prices etc

The BoE are morons. This latest rise is to try and prove to everyone that they are on the case.
As you say, they have no other levers so if they did nothing, they'd be accused of 'doing nothing'.
It's time for a new remit and some 'out of the box' thinking. (stimulate the economy?)

 

[WetEV]

Interest rates need to average at least about same as inflation. (OK, is a broad statement with many details missing.)

If you can borrow money to buy goods cheaper now rather than more expensive later, why not borrow as much as you can? Why save money rather than buying anything that might keep up with inflation?

If inflation is due to other causes than excess demand, such as the current case, then what you are trying to prevent is demand increasing in the face of decreasing supply, which might cause runaway inflation. Demand for goods needs to match supply of goods, if the supply is reduced then the correct increase in interest rates will reduce demand to match.

Stimulating the economy would increase demand and inflation even more. See Turkey, with an 80% inflation rate and low interest rates.

 

[farmergiles]

Interest rates need to average at least about same as inflation. (OK, is a broad statement with many details missing.)

If you can borrow money to buy goods cheaper now rather than more expensive later, why not borrow as much as you can? Why save money rather than buying anything that might keep up with inflation?

If inflation is due to other causes than excess demand, such as the current case, then what you are trying to prevent is demand increasing in the face of decreasing supply, which might cause runaway inflation. Demand for goods needs to match supply of goods, if the supply is reduced then the correct increase in interest rates will reduce demand to match.

Stimulating the economy would increase demand and inflation even more. See Turkey, with an 80% inflation rate and low interest rates.

In normal times you'd be right, as would the BoEs decision.

BUT, as has been said, the lower paid have no spare cash so they don't cause inflation but suffer most.

The higher paid, also have less disposable income because they have food, fuel, energy and rising mortgage interest rates to budget for. So they too are not going to cause inflation but also will suffer.

Any inflation due to demand will be due to the well off spending on non essentials and the answer to quelling this is to change the VAT rate to 25% on non essential items.

EV owners are already guilty of causing the stupid prices of EVs, used EVs and used ICEs due to demand exceeding supply. Hence my suggestion to have EV owners pay VED.

 

[CasperStorm]

Hence my suggestion to have EV owners pay VED.

I think VED is too low - it should be at a level where you have to think "Do I actually need a car?"

Perhaps £1000/year for any vehicle?

The problem with VED is it is non-progressive so lower earners get pumped but that's the same with all goods and services (including fuel, maintenance and insurance).

 

[farmergiles]

I think VED is too low - it should be at a level where you have to think "Do I actually need a car?"

Perhaps £1000/year for any vehicle?

The problem with VED is it is non-progressive so lower earners get pumped but that's the same with all goods and services (including fuel, maintenance and insurance).

Make VED a percentage of the rrp, maybe 10% for vehicles over £50k and 5% below this, and applies to ICE as well as EVs but also includes motorhomes.

Also to be charged annually.