[Desserper]

Are the used 22kw Zoe market prices about to plummet?

Asking the Renault informed people this for a few reasons:

1. Miles Roberts, well known on this forum if you don't know him, he is Nissan seller. He recently posted a big list of cheap used 24kW Leaf's (see the classifieds forum section for that thread). And they have been selling like hot cakes.

2. A lot of these cheap Nissan cars were flex, but Nissan have bought the battery and made them available as battery owned.

3. Obviously the new 2018 Leaf, and latest Zoe model has to see the retro Leaf and Zoe models plummet in value at some point.

So if Nissan dealers are able to offer their old Leaf stock (including the ones with flex) at low prices with bought battery, why can't Renault dealers do the same?

No one is going to buy a used 22kW Zoe with battery rental right? These cars are surely not shifting, and surely never will unless there is a change. Can anyone see this changing soon? Used 22kW Zoe pricing seems a bit crazy to me.

PS I don't know how to spell plummet/plummit, I know I was lazy and should have looked it up, someone was bound to mention it

 

[Duncan23]

Firstly, you mean the 22kWh models, right?
Secondly, it's all down to price. If the choice is between a battery owned Leaf for 9k, or a battery leased Zoe for 5k with an ongoing payment of £60 a month, I'm sure there are people who will take the Zoe. And that's borne out by the fact that battery leased 22kWh Zoes are currently selling between 5k and 6k.
As to the probability or otherwise of values plummeting, I think that depends on the demand. Supply is relatively restricted - if people work out that they can run an EV as a second car and save money then demand may hold up, and that would mean that prices hold up.

Finally, the reason why Renault dealers can't convert battery lease Zoe to battery owned Zoe is that Renault/RCI won't allow it.

 

[yoh-there]

Another counter argument would be (if Renault / LG-Chem can get their production ramped up) that retrofitting a 22 kWh ZOE with a new ZE40 battery, and that includes the far more friendlier rental contract, the car might prove to be a very popular "donor". And popularity drives the price up, establishing a new balance.

No one is going to buy a used 22kW Zoe with battery rental right? These cars are surely not shifting, and surely never will unless there is a change.

Surely they are. It is an understandable thought often ventilated in this forum. In the meantime even dealers buy end-of-PCP cars and handily shift them.

 

[Desserper]

I'd buy a 22 Zoe if there was a good price and no rental. I just don't feel the used 22 Zoe market pricing reflects the general market for 2 reasons. I'd be buying a very slow charging car that can only do half-rapid type of charging speed. I will continue to monitor the market, and hopefully there will be a change.

 

[yoh-there]

I guess you were then talking about the R model. Personally I like the Rapid charger in my Q, but truth to be told, I hardly ever use it, even though we have a very dense rapid network here. I realize I am a "sample of one", but I charge 3.5 kW on my driveway at night. Right now there is work going on on the sewer system in my street and I cannot get to my driveway. I walk 300 meters to the nearest 11 (so quarter rapid) post. Only two hours later it's full from completely empty and I repark it out of courtesy. What I am saying is is as a more or less general rule, Rapids are really nice on trips beyond the range.

I also realize this not new info; I assume you have the same experience with your LEAF, unless your driving patterns are substantially different.

Anyway: there are many threads on this forum arguing back and forth based on financing versus emotional arguments. Suffice to say that if I got a quid for every post saying something along the lines of "I would buy a ZOE if only I could buy the battery" I would be, well, not rich, but at least well off. In the mean time the "i" models (buy battery) remain relatively unpopular first hand and almost impossible to pick up second hand.

 

[ElectricBrain]

I don't think so, the prices are already quite low.

Great first car for young people, easy automatic, decent amount of gadgets. That £50 lease, they would be paying that in fuel, fuel, timing belts in an ICE for similar price.

 

[yoh-there]

Great first car for young people

I honestly don't know about the UK, but the age group driving a ZOE here is surprisingly old. The story (fairy tale?) is Renault really misjudged targeting ZOE at the "30-ish female doing the shopping around and the kids school runs" (sorry for the horrible stereotyping). In the bell curve you'd find the top much more at the late 40-ish male. FWIW, I am on the right slope

 

[SteveD99]

I wonder if Renault will convert used 22 kWh Zoe's to 40 kWh and then sell at a higher price? Renault strategy suggests that they have a use for used 22kWh batteries - see Renault and Powervault Give EV Batteries a “second-life” in Smart Energy Deal

Once supply of the 40 kWh batteries improves there could be a hike in used Zoe prices if the conversions by Renault themselves become common.

 

[Desserper]

The likes of Renault and Nissan much to the disappointment of many, don't seem to like the conversion or upgrade route when it comes to older BEV's and batteries. If you even look at the Twizy which has been around for ages, Renault have made no effort to improve that other than add a wee sporty feature or minor improvement here and there for more recent year editions.

 

[ElectricBrain]

Oh yeah, they can also be upgraded to 40kw for £3k (lease) or £10k (i), so cheapest way of getting a 170 mile EV

 

[yoh-there]

The likes of Renault and Nissan much to the disappointment of many, don't seem to like the conversion or upgrade route when it comes to older BEV's and batteries. If you even look at the Twizy which has been around for ages, Renault have made no effort to improve that other than add a wee sporty feature or minor improvement here and there for more recent year editions.

If I got 100 batteries from my supplier, and could...........
1) put them in new cars, improving sales, my EV gamble exposure in the market and make some money, or
2) sell no new cars, take back the old batteries that are probably not payed off yet as the rent stops earlier than anticipated and all related logistical nightmare......
...... what would I do?

Whether we like it or not, it's really a very, very easy decision. It will only tilt over when either
1) we go in over supply of state-of-the-art battery
2) second source suppliers step in

Reality is the rude "good luck", on both of those. The first because all OEMs are trying to secure supply now. It will take years to play catch up. The second because it's relatively expensive, potential clients are reluctant (OMG MOT, OMG fire, OMG some bloke somewhere, OMG insurance), the engineering of the car interface is complex and the rate of improvement is relentless, so not a second of sitting back.

 

[Wazza]

If the choice is between a battery owned Leaf for 9k, or a battery leased Zoe for 5k with an ongoing payment of £60 a month, I'm sure there are people who will take the Zoe.

I wish it was only £60pm to lease the battery, but it is £103pm for 12,000 miles per annum (my mileage). Which seems outrageous for a 80-90% healthy battery. It's the same price for a degraded battery as for a brand new battery, which I don't agree with.

I'd prefer if they made the cars battery owned, rather than lease a degraded battery at full price.

 

[Duncan23]

I wish it was only £60pm to lease the battery, but it is £103pm for 12,000 miles per annum (my mileage). Which seems outrageous for a 80-90% healthy battery. It's the same price for a degraded battery as for a brand new battery, which I don't agree with.

I'd prefer if they made the cars battery owned, rather than lease a degraded battery at full price.

Sure, the battery lease varies according to mileage. If you are doing significant miles (>9,500 IMO) it's better to have a battery owned car. If you do fewer than that, a battery lease car adds up better...
I bought a new R90 battery owned car because I'm planning on doing >12,000 mileI have the cash. If RCI were prepared to make the batteries ownable, would you be prepared to pay the £3-4k that is the current value on RCI's books?

 

[mgboyes]

No one is going to buy a used 22kW Zoe with battery rental right? These cars are surely not shifting, and surely never will unless there is a change. Can anyone see this changing soon? Used 22kW Zoe pricing seems a bit crazy to me.

Second hand 22kWh Zoes with rented batteries seem to sell pretty quickly. I know lots of people who've bought one (including myself!). And second hand 22kWh Zoes with battery included are so rare that the few that come on to the market get snapped up instantly.

In fact 2-3 year old Zoes seem to be noticeably more expensive today than they were six months ago.

The fact that the new ZE40 looks exactly the same as the newer model probably also helps. LEAFs will suffer more because the new model will make the old model look out of date.

 

[Neilew]

What the comparable price per month with the same age/mileage Leaf against Zoe. That would be the way to tell if leasing is a yes or no. For me you would have to add in peace of mind through EV assist.

 

[mgboyes]

What the comparable price per month with the same age/mileage Leaf against Zoe. That would be the way to tell if leasing is a yes or no. For me you would have to add in peace of mind through EV assist.

I'm not sure comparing leasing prices is going to be a viable way of looking at this since afaik Renault/RCI don't offer leasing (by which I mean PCP or contract hire, not hire purchase) on second hand Zoes.

My 64 plate Zoe cost me £5k to buy earlier this year, and these days all Zoe battery rental contracts (apart from the unlimited miles one that you can only get on the ZE40) work out at 8p per mile. If you have some equivalent LEAF figures feel free to do a comparison.

[Edit - fixed my crappy maths about the price per mile of the battery rental]

 

[donald]

I'd buy a 22 Zoe if there was a good price and no rental. I just don't feel the used 22 Zoe market pricing reflects the general market for 2 reasons. I'd be buying a very slow charging car that can only do half-rapid type of charging speed. I will continue to monitor the market, and hopefully there will be a change.

Just in case you thought it clarified units just by missing them out, there is also a 22kW Zoe.

I believe the 22kW Zoe can come in the 22kWh version or the 41kWh version, which in turn can come as a 43kW version.

Hope that clears that up!

 

[Siraff]

I wish it was only £60pm to lease the battery, but it is £103pm for 12,000 miles per annum (my mileage).

That would also be pretty much even with a 48mpg ice - something a car the size of a Zoe wouldn't struggle to do.
This has always been the bite for me - if the rental matches ice fuel that means anytime you don't use the ev to exactly the quoted mileage for whatever reason you're losing out before you even add in the price of electricity.
I remember when the Zoe first came out. I went for a test drive, liked it and was back in the showroom talking numbers when the sales guy mentioned the battery lease. He seemed fairly upset when I started laughing and got up to leave but the car was already not cheap for a Renault so asking for a chunk each month on top seemed rude enough to me.

 

[ofev2357]

No one is going to buy a used 22kW Zoe with battery rental right?

I find this pretty much an unfounded statement. Maybe you or a bunch of people would not buy a 22kW Zoe with battery rental. The battery rental gives peace of mind and includes complete roadside assistance (incl. when battery runs out), so it's also for insurance purposes. If your mental model is "never to rent a battery", then that's your mental model, doesn't mean it applies to everyone else. After driving a new Zoe with battery rental for 2 years, I would happily drive a 2nd hand Zoe with battery rental.

For me, I wouldn't want to buy a car that has no option for battery replacement/assurance so, yes, I would buy a 2nd hand 22kWh Zoe with battery rental at any time; mind you, in Germany I don't have the option of a PCP, so I have to lease it (which seems to be more expensive than the UK's PCP and it still makes economic sense). There's some assurance with the roadside assistance included, aside from running out of charge, so I don't have to pay ADAC or any other similar service for roadside assistance. It's actually a great selling point if you know how to sell it!

What you buy 2nd hand is the chassis, not the battery. If it makes economic sense to you to buy a 2nd hand Zoe with battery owned and go down to 66% capacity before Renault looks at it... by all means, go ahead! Also, I haven't heard so far many being executed by Renault/RCI for exceeding the mileage, but that's a different story.

In addition, for some businesses with local delivery, a 2nd hand Zoe with battery rental would make quite some sense. I've seen in Frankfurt, where I live, quite a bunch a small care-taking businesses that use electric cars for moving here and there. It's practical, small and cheap to run; I'm not sure if these cars are 2nd hand though.

So there is a market and I have a feeling that this market is not confirming some people's expectations that Zoe should be handed to people almost for free, or even being paid to take one.

 

[Desserper]

Just in case you thought it clarified units just by missing them out, there is also a 22kW Zoe.

I believe the 22kW Zoe can come in the 22kWh version or the 41kWh version, which in turn can come as a 43kW version.

Hope that clears that up!

Honestly man, people get caught up on the most insignificant things don't they? I really don't know why, and I was trying not to highlight it further after that dude made that unit comment, not one for getting into forum silliness. Anyone such as myself with several home renewables and electric cars for years is going to get kW and kWh and the basics of electricity units. Cars get labeled as kW all the time. I have a particular 12kW renewables system. I don't consider it wrong that I refer it to 12kW and not 12kWh, everyone knows what I mean.

The easiest way I explain it to someone is if something is say 22kWh, then it can draw 22kW of electricity in 1 hour. Or 11kW in half an hour. 5.5 kW in 15 mins.