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Discussion Starter #1

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Europe is behind the curve, been happening in the UK for days:

UK manufacturers to regear factories to build ventilators for NHS

Or maybe just the same puff-piece making its way around the news outlets. :unsure:

All we need to do now is to work out how we can manufacture the staff to work them:

NHS plans to deploy ‘Dad’s Army’ of retired doctors if Covid-19 spreads (note the date - it still hasn't happened yet)

The Armed Forces have a requirement to remain able to be called up after they retire - I wonder whether Medics contracts will be altered in future to place the same requirement upon them? It certainly strikes me that the scandal of the number that early retire after extremely costly training needs to be addressed in the event of medical emergencies such as this - the selfish ones are placing a huge burden on their colleagues who have continued. The reason for the gender difference in this also needs to be addressed - there would appear to be some form of gender discrimination at an early point in their careers resulting in a huge difference later in life.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Europe is behind the curve, been happening in the UK for days:

UK manufacturers to regear factories to build ventilators for NHS

Or maybe just the same puff-piece making its way around the news outlets. :unsure:

All we need to do now is to work out how we can manufacture the staff to work them:

NHS plans to deploy ‘Dad’s Army’ of retired doctors if Covid-19 spreads (note the date - it still hasn't happened yet)

The Armed Forces have a requirement to remain able to be called up after they retire - I wonder whether Medics contracts will be altered in future to place the same requirement upon them? It certainly strikes me that the scandal of the number that early retire after extremely costly training needs to be addressed in the event of medical emergencies such as this - the selfish ones are placing a huge burden on their colleagues who have continued. The reason for the gender difference in this also needs to be addressed - there would appear to be some form of gender discrimination at an early point in their careers resulting in a huge difference later in life.
If they are all using 3D printing, then they just need approvals on design and materials, then can easily share worldwide and make loads of them. Doesn’t need many humans involved to manufacture, just loads to sort, pack, ship deliver logistics etc.
 

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The UK seems to be well behind Germany, resulting in a higher death rate despite Germany sharing a border with Italy.

As usual, I think there’s rather more going on beyond some tweeted numbers.

Unless we know the number of infected people, it’s very difficult to say whether the death rate is lower or higher relatively. We haven’t tested much, we could have many more cases than Germany.

It’s easy to ignore carriers/infected, rather harder to explain away a body...

I do think there is probably something in the fact that Germany has many more critical beds per head of population than the UK though. That’s changing fast though, as are the measures.
 

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I do think there is probably something in the fact that Germany has many more critical beds per head of population than the UK though. That’s changing fast though, as are the measures.
The Germans are just more through, systematic and get the job done when it comes to testing.

Why on earth would you choose to fly blind on where the infections are at this point?
 

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It seems to me that the death rate that matters is the number of deaths / population size when judging different countries.

This seems to be an unambiguous measure of whether a country is succeeding or not.
 

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As usual, I think there’s rather more going on beyond some tweeted numbers.

Unless we know the number of infected people, it’s very difficult to say whether the death rate is lower or higher relatively. We haven’t tested much, we could have many more cases than Germany.

It’s easy to ignore carriers/infected, rather harder to explain away a body...

I do think there is probably something in the fact that Germany has many more critical beds per head of population than the UK though. That’s changing fast though, as are the measures.
The point of testing is to reduce the number of infected people.

All those ventilators mean you have a better chance of surviving too.
 

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The point of testing is to reduce the number of infected people.

All those ventilators mean you have a better chance of surviving too.
Surely the point of testing is to identify who has the virus?

Just because you haven’t been tested doesn’t mean you don’t have it. How many have it and don’t know it and spreading it?

You can’t work out overall fatality rate without knowing one half of the sum.
 

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Surely the point of testing is to identify who has the virus?
Yes so you can tell them to isolate for 2 weeks and also tell everyone they have been in contact with to do the same.

South Korea is the same, mass testing really helped keep it under control. In SK they found that a lot of people who had it didn't even know, they had no symptoms.
 

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The Armed Forces have a requirement to remain able to be called up after they retire - I wonder whether Medics contracts will be altered in future to place the same requirement upon them? It certainly strikes me that the scandal of the number that early retire after extremely costly training needs to be addressed in the event of medical emergencies such as this - the selfish ones are placing a huge burden on their colleagues who have continued. The reason for the gender difference in this also needs to be addressed - there would appear to be some form of gender discrimination at an early point in their careers resulting in a huge difference later in life.
1) Any imposition that if you become a doctor you basically sell yourself for the rest of your life to the NHS will result in less doctor training, who would sign up for that?

2) Any reference to ”extremely costly training” fails to take into account the hundreds of unpaid hours myself and my colleagues have worked and continue to do so to ensure patients are safe and hospitals have cover.

There has often been comments about doctors being made to pay back any tax payers money if they quit, or retire early or go into private practice.

Ok let’s do that! However at the same time the doctors would then need paying for every hour worked, something that would bankrupt the NHS!!!

3) As doctors we actually love helping sick people, it’s the most amazing feeling to save a life, to see someone get better and to be part of this amazing team of people, it’s like your part of a family. What would stop retired doctors coming back is what we have seen already - lack of PPE to keep us safe.
 

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Maybe the not testing was part of the herd immunity plan. Take those with symptoms out of circulation but allow those who might just be carriers to continue thus giving a manageable infecting rate.
Obviously all changed now.
 

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Yes so you can tell them to isolate for 2 weeks and also tell everyone they have been in contact with to do the same.

South Korea is the same, mass testing really helped keep it under control. In SK they found that a lot of people who had it didn't even know, they had no symptoms.
Yes, but we were slow to adopt that tactic, much slower than SK and even then we didn’t do much testing.

The ship has sailed, we’re not all starting from the same point anymore which is why it’s meaningless to compare mortality rates vs official detections.
 

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Europe is behind the curve, been happening in the UK for days:

UK manufacturers to regear factories to build ventilators for NHS

Or maybe just the same puff-piece making its way around the news outlets. :unsure:

All we need to do now is to work out how we can manufacture the staff to work them:

NHS plans to deploy ‘Dad’s Army’ of retired doctors if Covid-19 spreads (note the date - it still hasn't happened yet)

The Armed Forces have a requirement to remain able to be called up after they retire - I wonder whether Medics contracts will be altered in future to place the same requirement upon them? It certainly strikes me that the scandal of the number that early retire after extremely costly training needs to be addressed in the event of medical emergencies such as this - the selfish ones are placing a huge burden on their colleagues who have continued. The reason for the gender difference in this also needs to be addressed - there would appear to be some form of gender discrimination at an early point in their careers resulting in a huge difference later in life.
Part of the reason highly skilled doctors retire early is because of a pensions trap caused by the government. They get to a point where earning more can actually reduces their net earnings as a tax on the size of their pension pot kicks in. A problem most of us mere mortals can only dream of having. The tax was designed to penalise fat cat bankers but it also catches out consultants and GP’s with generous state funded pension schemes. . The law of unintended consequences in action. So they retire early and EU NHS staff return home. Oh happy days.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Yes so you can tell them to isolate for 2 weeks and also tell everyone they have been in contact with to do the same.

South Korea is the same, mass testing really helped keep it under control. In SK they found that a lot of people who had it didn't even know, they had no symptoms.
See this article re South Korea testing...

 

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See this article re South Korea testing...
One thing that strikes me from that is that if we want responses to things like COVID-19 to be like South Korea, we have to have a society like South Korea. And I doubt many of us would actually want that - it's an alien culture to Europeans.
Likewise Singapore which is also being talked up - it's close to being a police state in some respects.

Be careful what you wish for. The law of unintended consequences has no sense of direction or magnitude.
 

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One thing that strikes me from that is that if we want responses to things like COVID-19 to be like South Korea, we have to have a society like South Korea. And I doubt many of us would actually want that - it's an alien culture to Europeans.
Likewise Singapore which is also being talked up - it's close to being a police state in some respects.

Be careful what you wish for. The law of unintended consequences has no sense of direction or magnitude.
Special situations require special measures and in UK and European history we've had situations like WW1 and WW2 which required far more intrusive restrictions and measures than we're facing now, and people accepted it as being necessary because the situation demanded it.

Also South Korea and other Asian nations have faced this threat before with SARS and Mers, so that has shaped their national response and their attitudes, it's left its mark and prepared them in how they responded to this virus.
 

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Did they not address that in the budget or some other recent change?
No- it was largely window dressing.

I'm still screwed if I do extra work for the NHS (or private, or legal). In fact a huge factor in my decision to get a salary sacrifice EV lease is to reduce the tax I'm paying on my pension.
 

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Maybe the not testing was part of the herd immunity plan. Take those with symptoms out of circulation but allow those who might just be carriers to continue thus giving a manageable infecting rate.
Obviously all changed now.
The not testing has largely been because:

1. The test is still new in UK
2. Machines to allow up scaling of testing are, unsurprisingly, in demand at the moment, often coming from overseas
3. Reagents needed for the test are unsurprisingly, in demand at the moment, often coming from overseas.

Testing capacity is being increased, as it has a huge role to play. However, we are on a "N Italy trajectory" at present and nothing I am seeing suggests that will change. A draconian, enforced lock down would help a bit but I fear the genie is out of the bottle and the next few months will be grim.
 
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