Speak EV - Electric Car Forums banner

1 - 17 of 17 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
317 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Back to the future: electric vehicles and oil demand

In December BP published this speech on the expected impact of EV's on the global oil market which I thought some people might find interesting along with their World Energy Outlook which went out in November and was quite widely reported.
  • Interesting that cars consume, er, 20% of 56% of Oil demand globally .. so around 12% then? That's actually less than I thought
  • Whilst BP believe oil consumption will continue to decline in the developed world they predict this will be more than offset by demand from poorer countries, global oil demand projected to grow around 20 Mb/d over the next 20 years
  • The estimate that the "global car park" will roughly double over the next 20 years from around 900m cars to 1.8 billion, with virtually all of that doubling concentrated in the developing world. Within that, the total number of electric cars is assumed to increase from around 1.2 million today to around 70 m in 2035, accounting for a little under a tenth of the total increase in the global car fleet
Also I see that on the basis of their numbers BP believe that more efficient petrol vehicles could have a bigger impact on Oil demand than EV's. I never really thought about it that way tbh.

Personally I think EV growth will be faster than BP predict but anyway I still think its interesting that big oil companies are definitely convinced of the impact EV's will have.

As some of you know I work in the (oil) industry and I thought some people might find it interesting .....

J
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,426 Posts
Interesting numbers.

Although more efficient ICE engines will reduce the per car use there really isn't a lot of efficiency to squeeze out of these engines, it's very small increments rather than game changing ones. Most of the energy in the fuel is still wasted as heat and noise, not to mention the losses if manufacturers insist on still having mechanical gearboxes.

Fingers crossed that BP are being pessimistic and that EV (especially BEV) use in the developing world really takes off.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,979 Posts
Interesting numbers.

Although more efficient ICE engines will reduce the per car use there really isn't a lot of efficiency to squeeze out of these engines, it's very small increments rather than game changing ones. Most of the energy in the fuel is still wasted as heat and noise, not to mention the losses if manufacturers insist on still having mechanical gearboxes.

Fingers crossed that BP are being pessimistic and that EV (especially BEV) use in the developing world really takes off.
I think there is quite a lot left on the table for an ice to squeeze out. 30-40% efficiency is dire. At the moment we are looking at engines designed around the idea that they need to make a lot of power quickly and over a broad rpm range so they can mechanically power the car. If that was changed to ones which are more concerned with making best use of the fuel available and developed accordingly there could be a big jump in efficiency. The electric motor allows this. Lose the gearbox, replace with a motor, shrink the fuel tank and replace half with a battery. Same car, same power but the "engine" (I'm thinking more along the lines of a fuel cell) can just potter away charging the battery all the time.
Most current ices don't even use the Atkinson cycle.
 

·
Premium Member
VW ID.3 Worst Edition & Tesla M3 LR
Joined
·
6,239 Posts
It may be small increments re ICE efficiency, but multiplied by the global car pool that's a potentially massive impact.

Price will have an impact too, especially for the consumer motoring sector, anybody remember how much quieter the roads were when petrol was £1.50 a litre.

It's like for the first time people thought, 'this stuff is expensive' and considered whether the journey was actually necessary.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
267 Posts
I don't know if we are typical, but all of the vehicles in our family have made enormous gains in efficiency just in the last five years.

Five years ago:
Mine: Volvo S70 T5 23mpg
Mrs: Fiat Punto 35mpg
Parents: Ford Mondeo 35mpg
Brother: Vauxhall Astra 45mpg
Sister: no car

Now:
Mine: Boring company Passat 55mpg
Mrs: Nissan Leaf 175mpge
Parents: Vauxhall Ampera 100mpg
Brother: Vauxhall Corsa 50mpg
Sister: no car
 
  • Like
Reactions: Stead

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,009 Posts
I wonder if BP are being over optimistic about oil use rising in developing countries. There are already signs they are skipping the ice and oil step. Solar and battery micro grids in Africa. The millions of electric bikes and scooters in China.

Renewables and batteries becoming cheaper will have a momentum shift. I suspect that oil may become niche quicker than any of us believe.
 

·
Premium Member
VW ID.3 Worst Edition & Tesla M3 LR
Joined
·
6,239 Posts
I think you could be right, an oil company paper on future oil use is a bit like Turkey's writing a paper about how Christmas will continue to be delayed...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8 Posts
Chris Goodall dissected the numbers given by BP in his Carbon Commentary Blog (www.carboncommentary.com) back in December - well worth a read. According to Chris, BP make some strange predictions on the growth rates of electric cars - 6.2m per year between 2025 and 2030 but then falling to 2.8m per year between 2030 and 2035 - no explanation is given to this collapse in numbers.

There is no mention in the speech as to the effects of air pollution and government legislation which most people would expect is coming down the road. China is trying to tackle this issue and is responsible for half the world's sales of EVs but no mention is made of China in the speech. A number of European governments have already stated plans to ban ICE cars but again no mention made of this in the speech.

dobbers
 

·
Registered
Kia Soul EV 2020
Joined
·
2,409 Posts
Chris Goodall dissected the numbers given by BP in his Carbon Commentary Blog (www.carboncommentary.com) back in December - well worth a read. According to Chris, BP make some strange predictions on the growth rates of electric cars - 6.2m per year between 2025 and 2030 but then falling to 2.8m per year between 2030 and 2035 - no explanation is given to this collapse in numbers.
I think that is due to the normal product life cycle. Every product goes through a standard "bell curve"... with very few exceptions. The whole point is that new products sell quicker, as they become known and wide spread. Then the sales increase levels out, and eventually starts to slow down.

There could be other reasons as well, contributing to that, such as availability of rare materials necessary for the sustained production of EV batteries and electric motors.

Just a heads up, the numbers listed are "growth rate", i.e. the amount of cars that sales will grow, and those are extremely impressive.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
317 Posts
Discussion Starter · #10 ·
I think that is due to the normal product life cycle. Every product goes through a standard "bell curve"... with very few exceptions. The whole point is that new products sell quicker, as they become known and wide spread. Then the sales increase levels out, and eventually starts to slow down.
I think this is the point, once you have bought EV then no subsequent EV purchase has a positive impact (i.e. reduction) on oil consumption so change / impact is always in the hands of existing ICE owners. Especially as car ownership in the west is static or falling then as time goes on we become less relevant to the numbers.

In my view, the next oil boom, high pump prices and better cheaper EV's with longer ranges mean that I think we will see a landslide shift to the sale of EV's within 5-10 years in UK. Only thing that will mess that up if we don't get the charging infrastructure sorted out, its a mess atm.

Cool beans!

J
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,426 Posts
As the price of fuel seems to be creeping back up again (116.9p for diesel this morning) and I've seen the second hand EV prices also creeping higher (e-NV200's going up by a couple of grand over the last month for the same vehicles) I wonder if there is a swell of demand for EVs that will increase as fuel gets more expensive.
 

·
Registered
Kia Soul EV 2020
Joined
·
2,409 Posts
As the price of fuel seems to be creeping back up again (116.9p for diesel this morning) and I've seen the second hand EV prices also creeping higher (e-NV200's going up by a couple of grand over the last month for the same vehicles) I wonder if there is a swell of demand for EVs that will increase as fuel gets more expensive.
This will have an impact, but it will be greatly offset by the much cheaper second hand ICE. They are readily available, much cheaper, and better alternative to almost anyone.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,979 Posts
Anyone with any common sense isn't going to pay a few grand more to save a few hundred quid on fuel.
Of course common sense isn't a great hallmark of the UK motorist as we saw when road tax bands came in and everyone went out paying double money for small horrible cars to save a small percentage of that on the tax each year.
 

·
Registered
Hyundai Ioniq 28
Joined
·
7,482 Posts
Logically cars should move towards an updated evolution of the Ampera which is still about the best all round EV solution. The pure BEV will always have a niche market of course, but will struggle to make big inroads into the mass market absent some kind of seismic change over charging infrastructure.The Nissan Note E-Power is an interesting development and perhaps is being used as a consumer test bed before making larger versions. However, imo all of this still means that the ICE will be around for a long time, whether as a prime mover or as a rex.

.

.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
317 Posts
Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Logically cars should move towards an updated evolution of the Ampera which is still about the best all round EV solution
I agree that currently this is the case, largely because batteries are so expensive, heavy meaning most EV's lack sufficient range for normos.
I think the PHEV is probably the way to cut ICE car emissions now and kind of aligns with government incentives and BP's report i.e. there is more emission reduction to be gained overall through encouraging them than EV's.
Ultimately though, as current PHEV's are basically ICE cars - especially the ones with tiny tax-dodge batteries and with the way a lot of owners drive them - I think they are an evolutionary dead end.

J
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
1,287 Posts
As some of you know I work in the (oil) industry and I thought some people might find it interesting .....
We shall report for re-programming

I think you could be right, an oil company paper on future oil use is a bit like Turkey's writing a paper about how Christmas will continue to be delayed...
Well actually

While you drive your EV in oil free smugness

May i remind you the following comes from oil

The road tar holding the road together
The tyres that run on that road
The shock absorbers that control that tyre are oil filled
The plastic you are sitting on
And the dashboard you are looking at

The oil industry is far from dead

However

As one chemist said

"You have this stuff that comes out of the ground that can be used to make all these wonderful things, and you just burn it!"

Oil ain't going away

It will just become more useful
 

·
Premium Member
VW ID.3 Worst Edition & Tesla M3 LR
Joined
·
6,239 Posts
We shall report for re-programming


Well actually

While you drive your EV in oil free smugness

May i remind you the following comes from oil

The road tar holding the road together
The tyres that run on that road
The shock absorbers that control that tyre are oil filled
The plastic you are sitting on
And the dashboard you are looking at

The oil industry is far from dead

However

As one chemist said

"You have this stuff that comes out of the ground that can be used to make all these wonderful things, and you just burn it!"

Oil ain't going away

It will just become more useful
I agree, but I never said oil companies or oil was going anywhere anyway. Well, at least for now anyway.

I was merely commenting that we should be healthily sceptical about what a report about oil use and the future says when it's from an oil company.

The report indeed highlights that most oil isn't used for road fuels anyway, so the BEV impacts aren't as much as perhaps some of us would hope.

Off to work now where on the journey I shall be using both electric and petrol, so no smugness here my friend!
 
1 - 17 of 17 Posts
Top