[proddick]

I read that sale of PHEVs would be allowed until 2035 but traditional ("self charging" 🙄) hybrids would also be banned from 2030 as only powered by petrol. Yes, they really are Toyota.

 

[proddick]

“All cars must be hybrid by 2030” then.

No big deal, most of them are already.

Unless Toyota lobbying changes the government policy, the plan is for 2030 all cars sold must be PLUG IN. So far in 2020, plug in sales are just over 8% market share so a long way to go.

A key objective is to reduce local pollution and used correctly a plug-in-hybrid achieves that. If only BEVs are available in 2030 it is likely some people will buy a shorter range EV and keep their 10+ year old diesel for longer journeys. On petrol, a 2030 PHEV will be far cleaner than their diesel.

Source New UK EV and AFV Registrations - SMMT monthly data

 

[proddick]

I wouldn't be surprised if there are bugger all ICE cars on sale by 2025 never mind 2030

So far this year BEVs are just over 5% of sales in UK. It is easy in our EV vacuum to think everyone is buying them, but the public are still (rightly in some ways) sceptical. Below is a graph from Deloitte showing expected sales and Europe will be around 15% by 2025, but as UK has higher pentration than Europe average, 20% or slightly more is probably realistic.

Many (most?) manufacturers simply aren't geared up to produce a wide range of BEVs in volume by 2025 and even 2030 will be hard for then. Ford have only launched one expensive BEV and Toyota have none (well one Lexus). Developing EVs isn't as easy as they thought as we see from problems VW (software), Ford and Polestar (both recalls) they have had.

The reality is that in 2030 many manufacturers will have a far smaller range of "plug in" models on sale in UK. They simply aren't going to be able to afford to develop EV (or even PHEV) versions of all their cars. I suspect many will stockpile pre-reg cars before the deadline and sell over a few years as "used". Clearly it would be hard for the government to ban used sales.

Source - Electric vehicles

 

[proddick]

The problem is a PHEV can be used as a traditional Hybrid simply by forgetting to ever plug it in. How convenient... Will there be any roadside checks to ensure people are actually charging their PHEV's and not just driving them as regular cars ? I doubt it.

This was certainly an issue with company PHEVs as many drivers got free petrol! With private buyers I am inclined to think most people would plug in if they could. My Outlander friends drive 80% on electric.

As others have said though, the cost of PHEVs isn't likely to drop much by 2030 whereas BEVs will, so demand will be tempered. BEVs will benefit far more from platform volume (eg VW MEB) and reducing cost of batteries.

 

[proddick]

I presume the same goes for "self charging hybrids"! not to mention "mild hybrids"

The current government statement is that cars need to be PLUG IN from 2030 and PHEVs can be sold from 2030 until 2035. Toyota will no doubt lobby that PHEVs are no better than "self charging" hybrids and try and get it changed (Toyota are actually pushing that self-charging is better because you don't have to plug in) .

Yes, this was my first thought too. Effectively it means that the ban on ICE cars is not really a ban at all. The ban doesn't start until 2035. People will just buy a PHEV and treat it as an ICE car if they have no interest in the switch to electric.

Maybe we will see wealthy people buy Range Rover PHEVs and being "too posh to plug" just run on petrol. Hopefully they will only keep a couple of years and subsequent users will plug-in. That currently happens today with ex-fleet PHEVs.

I wonder what form the 'Grants for EV buyers will stretch to £582m to help people make the transition' will take. An increase in the plug in car grant?

It sounds a big number, but In 2019 new passenger vehicle registrations in the UK dropped again, but were still 2,311,140! If that £582m is used at current £3K PICG level it would fund less than 200K cars - 10% of one year sales.