[Mark Cornwall]

I can see diesel being less than a couple of percent of sales by 2025 easily and there may well be taxes that will make petrol and old diesels very expensive to own. Not to mention a ban on ICE cars all together in built up areas. Park and ride or electrc only will be the norm I expect. Judging by the pandemic where a lot of folk liked clean air it may well be that driving in towns will be socially unacceptable long before 2030 anyway. Public transport is going to have to get much better going forward, as well as cheap to keep the poorer members of society mobile, and not just in the big cities.

 

[Rooster-x]

I don't think anyone will buy Petrol or Diesel after 2025 unless they really want one, most people will just buy electric as price parity will have been reached in the next couple of years whereas Diesel and Petrol will get more expensive. You can already see small petrol cars stopping production for the European market e.g. Smart car, Seat Mi, Skoda Citigo. Not sure about VW Up, think you can still get petrol. Interesting times as it means exisiting car owners will probably hold on to their Petrol and Diesel cars longer than normal while they await a suitable electric replacement at reasonable cost.

 

[njm106]

Hopefully if nothing else this and other countries bans will force manufactures to stop developing new ICE cars it would be madness to bring a new ICE car to market in 2025 with a lifespan of only 5 years.

The biggest obstacle now with EV adoption is the charging infrastructure, hopefully the government will make money available to local authorities to install charging points in lampposts and public car parks etc. If councils do this right it could actually make them money.

 

[WonkoTheSaneUK]

I wonder what form the 'Grants for EV buyers will stretch to £582m to help people make the transition' will take. An increase in the plug in car grant?

I doubt it. Probably just means that OLEV grants will be funded for longer than previously planned.

 

[Snax]

Hopefully if nothing else this and other countries bans will force manufactures to stop developing new ICE cars it would be madness to bring a new ICE car to market in 2025 with a lifespan of only 5 years.

The biggest obstacle now with EV adoption is the charging infrastructure, hopefully the government will make money available to local authorities to install charging points in lampposts and public car parks etc. If councils do this right it could actually make them money.

just to play devils advocate, it’s only a ban on new ICE so I don’t think 2025 is the cut off. It will take decades before ICE is gone as they will be dirt cheap while the spares stock runs down, and then the best ICE vehicles will become very valuable due to scarcity

 

[BSomsen]

I don't think anyone will buy Petrol or Diesel after 2025 unless they really want one, most people will just buy electric as price parity will have been reached in the next couple of years whereas Diesel and Petrol will get more expensive. You can already see small petrol cars stopping production for the European market e.g. Smart car, Seat Mi, Skoda Citigo. Not sure about VW Up, think you can still get petrol. Interesting times as it means exisiting car owners will probably hold on to their Petrol and Diesel cars longer than normal while they await a suitable electric replacement at reasonable cost.

agree entirely, am very much in that position, have replaced my Smart ForTwo with the e208, but will hang on to my X3 diesel for many many more years as there is not simply anything EV wise that covers that type of car, that is used for long distances European holidays. It 6 years old but has only done 40k miles but with a PX value that has fallen through the floor, so will (have to) have many more happy driving years in that car in the future.

 

[njm106]

just to play devils advocate, it’s only a ban on new ICE so I don’t think 2025 is the cut off. It will take decades before ICE is gone as they will be dirt cheap while the spares stock runs down, and then the best ICE vehicles will become very valuable due to scarcity

I should have been more clear I didn't mean there would be no ICE cars for sale in 2025 just that I'd doubt any manufacturers would develop new ICE only models given the limited sales window to recuperate R&D costs. So I'd expect current ICE development to slow if not stop completely very soon and more EV only platforms to be developed.

 

[TrevorH]

The last data produced for the UK suggested the average age of a vehicle on the road was 8.3 years. So with mainstream manufacturers reluctantly introducing EVs there is time to incentivise a move away from ICE cars with some carrot and stick from the government (whoever they are).

Of course with this announcement there will still be some ICE cars around beyond 2035 but hopefully with commercial vehicles having to switch to zero carbon by then, the issue will be a nice to have.

 

[Jeffrey Cooper]

Why does everyone keep saying that EV prices are coming down ?
where are these mythical cheap new EVs ?
And don't quote MG, because their ICE versions are still 7K or more less for the same car.

 

[DSLRed]

The comments on the bbc site are verging on panic. Some are just plain bizzare.

You best not look at the Daily Mail ones then. Populated by people from a different planet.

 

[Padrino]

Why does everyone keep saying that EV prices are coming down ?
where are these mythical cheap new EVs ?
And don't quote MG, because their ICE versions are still 7K or more less for the same car.

It is the wishful thinking 🤣 You cannot get a descent EV for under £10K....at the same time you can buy hundreds of ICE cars with under 30 000 miles on the clock and under £7000 quid.

 

[DSLRed]

The problem is a PHEV can be used as a traditional Hybrid simply by forgetting to ever plug it in. How convenient... Will there be any roadside checks to ensure people are actually charging their PHEV's and not just driving them as regular cars ? I doubt it.

Yes, this was my first thought too. Effectively it means that the ban on ICE cars is not really a ban at all. The ban doesn't start until 2035. People will just buy a PHEV and treat it as an ICE car if they have no interest in the switch to electric.

 

[BSomsen]

You best not look at the Daily Mail ones then. Populated by people from a different planet.

that applies pretty much to anything that rag writes...

 

[WonkoTheSaneUK]

that applies pretty much to anything that rag writes...

It's often called the Daily Fail for a reason.

 

[grahamcheese]

Those with combustion engines in them?

Sorry, but if hybrids with combustion engines are allowed, it's not a "Ban on new petrol and diesel cars" is it ? It's just a slightly more efficient combustion car which can maybe do the school run on electricity but not much else?

Wake me up when cars containing combustion engines truly are banned from sale.

I presume the same goes for "self charging hybrids"! not to mention "mild hybrids"

 

[grahamcheese]

Well, as an owner to 2 ICE and one PHEV, my reaction to this news is to probably keep all 3 as long as possible and drive them into the ground and only consider replacing after 2030. Not sure this is good news for the auto industry (whatever the power source) which makes up a big chunk of GDP.... still, we won't have money to spend anyway once the tax rises to pay for covid begin

 

[Neilew]

All cars must be hybrid by 2030” then.

This is the BBC talking here:- have you ever known them to tell the truth or get their facts correct.

 

[proddick]

I presume the same goes for "self charging hybrids"! not to mention "mild hybrids"

The current government statement is that cars need to be PLUG IN from 2030 and PHEVs can be sold from 2030 until 2035. Toyota will no doubt lobby that PHEVs are no better than "self charging" hybrids and try and get it changed (Toyota are actually pushing that self-charging is better because you don't have to plug in) .

Yes, this was my first thought too. Effectively it means that the ban on ICE cars is not really a ban at all. The ban doesn't start until 2035. People will just buy a PHEV and treat it as an ICE car if they have no interest in the switch to electric.

Maybe we will see wealthy people buy Range Rover PHEVs and being "too posh to plug" just run on petrol. Hopefully they will only keep a couple of years and subsequent users will plug-in. That currently happens today with ex-fleet PHEVs.

I wonder what form the 'Grants for EV buyers will stretch to £582m to help people make the transition' will take. An increase in the plug in car grant?

It sounds a big number, but In 2019 new passenger vehicle registrations in the UK dropped again, but were still 2,311,140! If that £582m is used at current £3K PICG level it would fund less than 200K cars - 10% of one year sales.

 

[njm106]

Why does everyone keep saying that EV prices are coming down ?
where are these mythical cheap new EVs ?
And don't quote MG, because their ICE versions are still 7K or more less for the same car.

If you compare the new Golf to the ID3 then there is currently a 7k difference between them but when the smaller battery ID3 Life comes out the extra is expected to only be around 1-2k

When you look at the best deal for a ZS Vs ZS EV the difference comes down to about 5.5k

 

[Big277wave]

I think that petrol stations will be interesting to watch. As ICE fuel sales fall, no doubt there will be quite a lot of closures. My guess would be that those doing the highest millage and using the most fuel will go electric fist accelerating the demise. I wonder when we will see the first petrol station ripping out all of it's pumps and replacing them with chargers in an attempt to survive or if we'll see mass closures with the land being put to other uses.

When we reduce and eventually stop burning oil, it's going to be so disruptive, refineries are going to have to change how they work. They are going to have to work out how to convert the petrol and diesel fractions to useful chemicals so they can continue to make the other chemicals, plastics and bitumen from oil.