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I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
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I am afraid that I cannot comprehend ZEV by 2035.

Bjorn evidences this in his 1000km trips. Well before completing these, perhaps 400km or 500km at the latest, the overall average speed reveals itself. Typically 70km/hr or so for 50~60kWh cars.

This is ridiculous. I mean, I am the last person to propose that we can do much more than 100km/hr on 'real' roads these days taking into account traffic and such.

But it still means a journey of 300 miles will take 7 hours instead of 4. And that is assuming all the chargers are available and working, which Bjorn usually has the pleasure of in his countries.

For sure, 90% of the population won't need that distance, but I have always advocated people choose their tool of use. A modern Euro 6 diesel will cover a long distance business trip in a day in a way that a BEV won't.

Of course, one might argue for 100kWh battery packs for all. Sigh. It was only a year or two ago when folks were saying 'if only I had 40kWh', then it was 'if only 60kWh' and now 'if only 100kWh AND 350kW charging'.

Throughout, I have advocated moderate battery capacities with an adequate REx. This has to be a permitted option. Pure ZEV for everyone does not deliver the national need. Bjorn proves this every time he does a 1000km test.

A REx limited to 10 kW would ensure that a "Business Rep" can't just expect to do their 300 mile journey for the day on chemical fuel, they'll have to start off fully charged, and probably pick up charge along the way if they are going to bustle along at ~75mph/25kW average. So it will still accomplish that purpose. Their (say) 45kWh car, with 10kW REx, would then hum along nicely at 70 mph drawing maybe 15kW battery and 10kW REx (with "free" winter heating!) for 3 hours, capable of >200 mile range, or after a pretty quick top off at destination (or maybe even the REx just carries on recharging the pack at destination?) and/or toilet break one way and/or the other, no problem for the full 300 miles.

A 45kWh pack but requiring 100kWh for the whole trip means 55kWh of charging, which in practice will add at least 2 hours to what would have otherwise been an 8 hour day.

ZEV is too much too fast, I don't believe it is realistic without permissive regulations that allow for some degree of REx. I do not believe the supply chains for 100kWh packs per every new car will ever exist. 45kWh is a push, but at least we'd be able t make twice as many of them for the same battery quantity.

... of course, Gov might well point us to hydrogen fuel cells as that exact REx, as needed. As well they might at the moment, given the past investment and future hype of FCs. But I have three friends, here, who think there may be problems realising fuel cells on that timescale and volume-scale.....
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The Model 3 did 1000km in 10 hours odd. I'd imagine the newer 350kw charging cars will end up being not that much longer than the petrol/diesel. Recommended stops are 20 minutes every 2 hours in the UK so I'd think stopping for half hour every 3 hours would be the minimum for a petrol/diesel anyway.

300 mile journey isn't an issue. Take a niro. Pee break half way and you've charged up enough for the rest of the journey.

The MG isn't a long distance car. Anything under 250 miles WLTP is short range if you do want to do lots of longer journeys. I think it's something like 160 miles WLTP which is even worse than my Leaf 40.
 

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I am afraid that I cannot comprehend ZEV by 2035.

Bjorn evidences this in his 1000km trips. Well before completing these, perhaps 400km or 500km at the latest, the overall average speed reveals itself. Typically 70km/hr or so for 50~60kWh cars.

This is ridiculous. I mean, I am the last person to propose that we can do much more than 100km/hr on 'real' roads these days taking into account traffic and such.

But it still means a journey of 300 miles will take 7 hours instead of 4. And that is assuming all the chargers are available and working, which Bjorn usually has the pleasure of in his countries.

For sure, 90% of the population won't need that distance, but I have always advocated people choose their tool of use. A modern Euro 6 diesel will cover a long distance business trip in a day in a way that a BEV won't.

Of course, one might argue for 100kWh battery packs for all. Sigh. It was only a year or two ago when folks were saying 'if only I had 40kWh', then it was 'if only 60kWh' and now 'if only 100kWh AND 350kW charging'.

Throughout, I have advocated moderate battery capacities with an adequate REx. This has to be a permitted option. Pure ZEV for everyone does not deliver the national need. Bjorn proves this every time he does a 1000km test.

A REx limited to 10 kW would ensure that a "Business Rep" can't just expect to do their 300 mile journey for the day on chemical fuel, they'll have to start off fully charged, and probably pick up charge along the way if they are going to bustle along at ~75mph/25kW average. So it will still accomplish that purpose. Their (say) 45kWh car, with 10kW REx, would then hum along nicely at 70 mph drawing maybe 15kW battery and 10kW REx (with "free" winter heating!) for 3 hours, capable of >200 mile range, or after a pretty quick top off at destination (or maybe even the REx just carries on recharging the pack at destination?) and/or toilet break one way and/or the other, no problem for the full 300 miles.

A 45kWh pack but requiring 100kWh for the whole trip means 55kWh of charging, which in practice will add at least 2 hours to what would have otherwise been an 8 hour day.

ZEV is too much too fast, I don't believe it is realistic without permissive regulations that allow for some degree of REx. I do not believe the supply chains for 100kWh packs per every new car will ever exist. 45kWh is a push, but at least we'd be able t make twice as many of them for the same battery quantity.

... of course, Gov might well point us to hydrogen fuel cells as that exact REx, as needed. As well they might at the moment, given the past investment and future hype of FCs. But I have three friends, here, who think there may be problems realising fuel cells on that timescale and volume-scale.....
View attachment 127479

Look this is a conservative plan so meant for the likes of me, not everyone. It is meant to give a large choice of BEV for all the middle and upper classes with off road parking, to get a subsidy for the car and the home chargers, and to enable them to pay for it mostly by having no VED and paying no fuel duty on their 5p overnight leccy rates.

Then they can all marvel at dinner party's how cheap and fast their cars are, how their wife's city car wipped the yoof in his aging GTI at the traffic lights, on its way to free parking while the poor drive round and round in circles for hours to find a spot they pay £1 an hour for. And isn't it wonderful our Detached / Semi property with 2 x 7kw home chargers is increasing in value as everyone want's EV charging at home.

All paid for by increasing VED and fuel duty by those left in ICE and Hybrids to punish them as they are "dirty".

But seriously, it's 15 years away, it will be fine. In 2005 you couldnt buy a BEV in the UK for another 6 years, and 9 years after that look at the charging inferstructure we have now, with less than 3% of BEV on the road. This will grow and grow as demand rises so supply comes on line to service the demand. But for sure there will always be a lag in the private sector, whos going to spend £millions of £100k's installing chargers no one hardly uses. The ideal situation for a charger company is a queue of EV's meaning the charger is making money 24/7/365.

I assume they will leave it to the market for 5+ years then maybe start worrying and spending taxpayers money around 2030 if the private sector is not going fast enough.
 

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I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
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Discussion Starter #6
Some of you seem to be ignoring winter and unavailable chargers.
 

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Some of you seem to be ignoring winter and unavailable chargers.
The idea is to have as many ICE powered cars off the road by 2050. Looking now on autotrader back to 2005 , for cars £10k or under, their are only 15k for sale today, vs 439k for sale for 2006 to 2020. Any maybe not even 1% of those 439k are BEV

So assuming it stays the same after the ban comes in in 2035, by 2050 there will probably be 50k 2035 cars for sale (15k ICE and 35k BEV) out of 500k between 2036 and 2050, all BEV.

so we can then see the difference, on 15k ICE type cars available to buy 2nd hand in 2050 vs 485k BEV's.

How many ICE left on the road in 2050, not for sale, made from 1900 to 2035 is hard to say. But I will guess less than 100k. Sure someone will do a gov search and tell us how many ICE cars are on the road in 2020 made from 1900 to 2005. I doubt it's a huge figure.
 

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Donald raises valid points. Which is why a) I still drive an Ampera wilth its limited 45 mile Ev range, and b) I have my eyes on the Mazda MX-30 Rex reputed to be appearing in a year or so. Occasionally we see major weather "events" causing disruption, such as bridges breaking, causing massive diversions at zero notice. Right now anyone dependent on their Ev for time-critical work might decide to take a cautious view of their chances if they go pure Bev. Rex has an awful lot going for it, and even if you never use the Ice, you'll have had that feeling of zero range anxiety! Which I love !!
 

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We do seem to be truly in a time where some of us are looking to the future with a deal of excitement and embracing the challenges it will bring, whilst others seem to be firmly looking backwards bemoaning that you won’t be able to drive 600 miles in a working day.

I say good, that can’t be the way we do things, and besides how much time can such business travellers spend with clients if they’re on the road all day to that extent?

When I was growing up, my uncle Peter was a travelling salesman. His company car was a Morris Minor, it’s average speed was not even that of a modern BEV even allowing for charging stops. He used these things called hotels when he had to visit clients a long way away.

There’s nothing new in the world, look back on that with a smile.
 

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Occasionally we see major weather "events" causing disruption, such as bridges breaking, causing massive diversions at zero notice. Right now anyone dependent on their Ev for time-critical work might decide to take a cautious view of their chances if they go pure Bev.
Seriously, we holding off going BEV now in case a bridge is out?! If your work is that time critical, any car probably isn’t the tool for the job anyway, I’ve lost far more time queuing on roads behind accidents or roadworks than I’ve ever spent at a charger.

Rex has an awful lot going for it
That’s true, but the awful bit is the engine!

Edit: And please don’t think I’m having a go here, we’ve spent ages on here trying to undo myths (or at least put them into perspective). I’m also a realist, I do think that BEVs are only a small part of the answer to our problems, and don’t really demonise people who own cars with engines.
 

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Not just that.

What about when I might need to drive at a moment's notice 1,000 miles towing a caravan* to see a dying relative, who lives at a remote location in the Norwegian mountains?



*I don’t own a caravan, but I might in the future...
I think that’s a cue to re-open the towbar, EVs and Type Approval debate! :ROFLMAO:
 

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I have driven electric cars for two years travelling over 30,000 miles. It suits me and my life style.
I find the only problem is waiting in queues to charge a real pain (over 390 rapids to date) . When asked about electric cars I recommend self charging hybrids and recommend Toyota to everyone. it may help stop charging queue growing, just being selfish.
After two years of Trying to be helpful I think life’s too short to continue the lone voice act.
Drove over 100 miles yesterday and really enjoyed the driving experience. It’s fun to get out and use a great car.
 

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300 miles in 4 hours? Not on UK roads.

I went to Scotland a couple of weeks ago in my diesel Mk7 Golf. 315 miles. Took over 6 hours. Not a huge amount of traffic either. One stop at about 15-20 minutes.

ABRP says 7h15 for a 38kwh Ioniq.

Yes it's longer, but it isn't that bad.

I think if you are doing 300 miles plus regularly you might want to reconsider a car as means of transport.
 

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Humans are by nature quite impatient creatures. Each individual incremental increase in car range feels inadequate as long as the total range of the improved car still doesn't meet our (highly personal) usage or affordability criteria. It's only when enough incremental improvements have taken place that we suddenly realise that an EV exists that can do what we need.

At least, this was what happened to me. I have been following BEV development since the 2000's and each time a new Leaf, etc. came out with 40, 80, 120 miles of range it was always "No", "No", "No" - they didn't fit my use pattern. As soon as (and I mean within like 2 days) of seeing the Zoe ZE50 and its 240 mile range (which DOES fit my use pattern) I had persuaded my wife, based on the economics alone, that it was better to buy a Zoe than the used mid-size petrol saloon we had been contemplating and we now have one on order. I hope there are many others like me, concerned for the environment, but needing an economic transport solution, who will move quickly once "their" vehicle comes on the market. On these forums there are many early adopters, and these people are seeding the future second hand market which will tempt people with smaller mileage requirements, but also shallower pockets, to get their feet wet in the EV market.

I trust that improvements in efficiency and affordability will continue and that more and more of us will find a car that suits our needs. Once we get to 2035, the only question is how hard will the government intervene to curtail the dinosaur-fuelled lifestyle of the small remaining subset of drivers whose use pattern still isn't covered.

I also realise there are many other use cases (trucks, tractors, ambulances, etc.) but I don't have the time or inclination to follow developments in all areas - but I can have hope that clever people are working on solutions to all the different mobility problems that require solutions as we move to an electric/hydrogen future.
 

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One thing to ponder is whether while there is a gap between BEV capability and charging infrastructure availability that short haul domestic flights will become more common for travel that a diesel car would have previously done? Hire an EV at the destination airport and it's probably much less of a maul than trekking up the motorway in a 200 mile BEV.
 

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I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
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Discussion Starter #19
I think you've mostly managed to completely alter the OP that I put forward.

OK, I will ask it in a different, more manageable way;

Where are all the battery cells going to come from, and should we not plan for the scenario that there is only X kWh per new car after 2035?

The problem/dilemma is this - as a species we are lurching from one minor drama of resource limitations to the next. Simply barrelling along in a cocoon of self-righteousness thinking "Well I will buy an EV in 2035 and happy about it" none of you seem to be thinking about how that is going to happen, what are the resources available, and what that whole picture looks like.

Think about it a bit. If people thought about these same things years ago maybe we'd have had more efficient forms of transport throughout, rather than getting to this point in time, thinking

"F---, we screwed that up, didn't we!! Time for another paradigm shift!!"


NOOOO. That is what I was trying to get into conversation. What's the NEXT F--- up that people are going to cause by only thinking of their own 100kWh/car 'need'?

The ICE car was the solution to a set of problems in the 20th century, which developed and evolved and eventually the ICE car which had been the solution became the problem.

What blundering are we about to enter into now? That is the question of this thread. Not what your collective heart's desire is. Your heart's desire today is tomorrow's problem!
 

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But it still means a journey of 300 miles will take 7 hours instead of 4. And that is assuming all the chargers are available and working, which Bjorn usually has the pleasure of in his countries.
That bull corn though, if I leave Nottingham and want to get to Stirling and average 60 MPH (almost impossible), then 300 miles is 5 hours of driving non-stop. If I leave with a full charge in anything other than an the most inefficient EV or one with a tiny battery, even in terrible weather I might add an extra 60 minutes on to my journey, or less as I can't drive 300 miles without stopping for at least 15 minutes, and if I've been on the coffee probably twice!
 
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