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Thanks to the help from this forum I ordered a 4+ a couple of months ok. I don’t need it until March so no major time pressure.

my plan was to buy it outright, but have seen some very good lease deals. Select car leasing have it at £287 per month for a 4+, plus £3440 initial payment. That’s for 36 months and 8000 miles a year which is sufficient for me.

it’s got me thinking about the likely resale value of this car over 3-5 years. At the moment values are holding up well, but of course the EV market is expanding and battery technology likely to improve. So im tempted to switch my order to a lease, which looks like it’s actually possibly less expensive than the depreciation on the car over that period.

would be interested in any thoughts!
 

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I have speculated for a while that used EV values were unlikely to stay as strong as they currently are, but it is difficult to be sure.

During lockdown there were some bargain lease deals on new Zoe so decided to sell my existing and sign up for one, but it has taken a while due to the recall, etc. I can't see any way buying one would be cheaper over the 2 years I have signed up for and after 4 years of Zoe (I had the ZE40 for two) I will definitely be ready for a change.

Personally I feel happier with a known cost for 2 years and will then probably buy a 2 year old EV - maybe an Ioniq. Hopefully they will depreciate a bit faster by then ;)
 

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Shame there aren't any good PCP deals so you can have the best of both worlds. £13,772 over 3 years is pretty good... That's what, £22k value at the end with 24k miles on it. I think they get them below list price though so probably in the high teens.
 

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Thanks to the help from this forum I ordered a 4+ a couple of months ok. I don’t need it until March so no major time pressure.

my plan was to buy it outright, but have seen some very good lease deals. Select car leasing have it at £287 per month for a 4+, plus £3440 initial payment. That’s for 36 months and 8000 miles a year which is sufficient for me.
So you've ordered the car already, how much is it currently on the order you have and how are you financing the vehicle?
Makes sense to get those details first before looking at the leasing option as a comparative regardless of the residual value left after 3-5 years. :)
 

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So you've ordered the car already, how much is it currently on the order you have and how are you financing the vehicle?
Makes sense to get those details first before looking at the leasing option as a comparative regardless of the residual value left after 3-5 years. :)
For my car I could choose how to pay for it when I went to collect it so ordering it was the important thing in order to get in the queue
 

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Discussion Starter #6
So you've ordered the car already, how much is it currently on the order you have and how are you financing the vehicle?
Makes sense to get those details first before looking at the leasing option as a comparative regardless of the residual value left after 3-5 years. :)
Thanks yes I should have included.

I have ordered for £36730 including the premium paint. I was going to pay cash. With leasing I have the added benefit of keeping my money invested (although interest rates are obviously terrible)

I have actually found a better lease deal with nationwide car leasing. Depending on mileage and whether going for premium paint, the cost comes to between £13k and £14k over 3 years.

I considered PCP but the Kia rates are quite expensive.
 

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40% depreciation seems steep to me. I would suspect the Niro holds a value of at least £25k after 3yrs/24k miles. If not I know I am going to be in the market for a Niro in a couple of years!

You would also need to factor in the other costs associated with a lease. Main one being mileage restriction, penalties on early termination and having to make a decision at the end of the term, rather than when it is convenient for you. The other is the psychological feeling of ownership. That one took me by surprise.

For me personally, the last year has seen my mileage estimations yo-yo between 5,000 and 20,000/year so I am very glad I didn't go for a lease...

I personally just buy used where the costs of ownership is substantially less than any new car depreciation (cash or lease) and I have no restrictions or contractual obligations.
 

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40% depreciation seems steep to me. I would suspect the Niro holds a value of at least £25k after 3yrs/24k miles. If not I know I am going to be in the market for a Niro in a couple of years!
By 2023 we will probably see new EVs with similar range and better technology than a Niro for less than £30K in which case used Niro might be selling for £20K or less. It is very difficult to predict but if OEMs like VW do really throw their weight behind EVs and Tesla make the savings they predicted this week, then prices will drop. We can't apply ICE or recent EV history to any of this.

Update - below is predicted residual for 4+ from FleetNews (3 year 30K miles). We also need to be careful not to confuse what a car is worth at trade in vs forecourt prices.
135354
 
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By 2023 we will probably see new EVs with similar range and better technology than a Niro for less than £30K in which case used Niro might be selling for £20K or less. It is very difficult to predict but if OEMs like VW do really throw their weight behind EVs and Tesla make the savings they predicted this week, then prices will drop. We can't apply ICE or recent EV history to any of this.
Which is all the more reason to lease instead of PCP.
 

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Which is all the more reason to lease instead of PCP.
I agree, but everyone takes their own view of risk, want a different ownership period, mileage, etc.

A close friend has bought the same ZE50 using personal finance and plans to keep 4 or 5 years. Over that period it might cost less per month than my 2 year lease, but I know after another 2 years of Zoe I will want something different.

FleetNews predict their Zoe will be worth just over £11K (4 years 40K) so based on what they paid depreciation will be approx. £15K. That is well over £300 a month and far higher than my 2 year lease costs. Maybe values will be stronger that FleetNews predict - I guess we will see!
 

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By 2023 we will probably see new EVs with similar range and better technology than a Niro for less than £30K in which case used Niro might be selling for £20K or less. It is very difficult to predict but if OEMs like VW do really throw their weight behind EVs and Tesla make the savings they predicted this week, then prices will drop. We can't apply ICE or recent EV history to any of this.

Update - below is predicted residual for 4+ from FleetNews (3 year 30K miles). We also need to be careful not to confuse what a car is worth at trade in vs forecourt prices.
View attachment 135354
I highly doubt it, as we know what's coming, but generally agree with your sentiment. I don't want to be spending anything like £5k a year in new car depreciation, but appreciate the others that do, cash or lease. Helps populate the used market for people like myself!

My 2ps worth was I know I wouldn't want to be tied into any contractual agreement, and I think it's more likely it will be cheaper than more expensive, so for the freedom and chance of lower costs, buying outright would be my choice.
 

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I have ordered for £36730 including the premium paint. I was going to pay cash. With leasing I have the added benefit of keeping my money invested (although interest rates are obviously terrible)
A basic bond account at 1.50% would net you ~£1680 over 3 years not adding or taking way from the capital, if you happen to have a mortgage, and if it is above the 1.5% on a larger balance than your savings then you'd obviously invest in that instead.

The asset value at the end is obviously unpredictable to any degree of certainty, what we do know is that demand for BEV's will be higher that they are now, and we also know that lots of people refuse to buy new cars full stop, so you have that on one on your side. You also have a vehicle with a long warranty, and something where mileage won't effect the value more so the battery health, so if you look after it well it may well be worth more even if it has lots of miles, though I feel the habit for people judging vehicles by mileage will take a long time to go away.

Back to the point, the end value after 3 years. I think we can safely assume that the price for a new equivalent vehicle may have gone down, but may not be supported by any from of grant or initiative. So lets say £24,000 after 3 years, which is more than generous, your total spend would be £36730 - £24,000 + £1680 (obviously it would be less if you were paying out savings for the lease), so approximately £14,410 over 3 years.

Can you get a 3 year lease for less than £14,410 that covers the mileage you want and the options you want? If you can your only chance of losing is if the car only depreciates to less, but if I doubt it would be a significant difference.
 

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So lets say £24,000 after 3 years
Where did you pluck that figure from? As per FleetNews (see above) the industry experts say it will be worth less than £19K at trade in, with a forecourt price of (probably) around £21K.

Maybe those experts will be wrong, but assuming that is a big financial risk. I think best approach is to base any plans on industry data and if you do better treat it as a bonus.
 

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Hmm, I have never borrowed money in any form to buy a car. I have always paid cash and then keep the car for a long time. I did have to sell my Honda after a few years because I retired and the diesel did not suit short journeys, Got the Ampera as a dip my toes in the water EV, liked it and have ordered a 4+ and have intended to pay cash. All £37K (ish) of it

My intention is to keep the car for at least the 7 years of the warranty, and probably longer. Low to average mileage planned. I know little about PCP / Lease / Whatever but given I plan to keep the car Lease is out. I suppose I could borrow the money as a loan from Kia and then pay it off after three months and get the 3 year "kick the tyres" service free. But the hassle doesn't seem worth it, and I am sure there would be some sort of penalty clause in the small print which would eat into the saving of £479

I suppose that in 3-4-5 years new battery chemistry may totally replace the current Lithium Cell makeup. Maybe solid state or something which would probably hit second hand prices a bit but that trying to read the future - a risky thing to do.
 

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Most people don't have that kind of cash on hand so they use finance or lease. The deals just aren't there at the moment though.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Thanks for the very useful responses. EV Journey’s calculation is a helpful way of looking at it.

the big question for me really is how long I’ll keep the car. That depends on how I got on with it. I have a young son and another baby on the way. I’m slightly worried we’ll outgrow the car in terms of pure size and committing For the long term may not be wise

if the car depreciates to £23k or less after 3 years, seems fairly clear a lease is cheaper over that time. I’m probably leaning towards a lease just to be cautious and not have to find the cash.
 

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My intention is to keep the car for at least the 7 years of the warranty
Good plan as the longer you keep a car, generally the lower the depreciation cost per mile. As they get older the maintenance per mile increases, but that should not be much on an EV under warranty - just 12V battery, tyres, brakes, etc. It will be interesting to see what a 7 year old EV will be worth in 2027 as landscape will have changed a lot by then. Hopefully there will be more independent EV specialists as cost of repair is an ownership barrier for older EVs.

Lots of people do, but personally I struggle to keep a car that long. I did have a Yaris Verso for a long time but it wasn't my primary car, more of a small van for going to tip etc! It was phenomenally reliable. I had originally planned to keep my Zoe ZE40 for 4 years, extended the warranty and sell privately. However, with used prices strong and the cheap lease deal, it made financial sense to sell now. I now think ZE40 values will drop quite a bit over next 2 years and happy to avoid that risk.
 
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I don't know how the spec compares, but there are 2019 First Edition Niros from main dealers with just 13k miles on the clock for £30k?

If as expected it will only be worth £20k after a couple of years then sell it and it would have only cost you £10k. £4k cheaper and you can drive it as much as you want and keep however long you want....
 

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I have a young son and another baby on the way. I’m slightly worried we’ll outgrow the car in terms of pure size and committing For the long term may not be wise
You'll be fine with an eniro. We have a 3 year old and a 5 month old in our egolf which is a smaller boot and get on ok day to day. Buggy and all the gear fits ok for a day out. Soon as the buggy went from the bassinet to a seat it made a world of difference and she was out of that by 4 months.
 

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Any advice on vehicle purchase and annual costs isn’t accurate in current times.
My estimated costs per mile are double what I planned last year as my mileage has halved.
Can see vultures circling as viability of keeping cars when working from home with no holiday travel changes needs for high mileage eco vehicles.
It’s a buyers market at the moment.
 
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