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The right to swing my arms in any direction ends 2 metres from where your nose begins.
That is what is the issue here and it is a temporary change to my liberty, I have lost the right to contaminate others, should I have this particular virus.
My hope is the government will reinstate my right to contaminate others as soon as our NHS is in a position to cope with whatever follows from that. Let's see what happens when the 3 weeks are up.
Belgium just passed a law making a criminal offence to cough in someone's face deliberately, punishable by up to 5 years behind bars.
 

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Discussion Starter #162
You have failed to prove that there is a link between lack of money and life expectancy. Do you understand?
No .. because that particular correlation is in the second graphic.

If you are looking for an absolute mechanistic explanation between one and the other and no other proof is acceptable, i.e. you reject 'correlation' as a meaningful proof, then you have just rejected a large chunk of clinical trials and most of the social sciences that rely on correlations as 'evidence'.
 

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No .. because that particular correlation is in the second graphic.
Not it isn't. Poverty is not the same thing as having little money. Poverty means having too little money to eat properly or afford adequate housing. If the state helps provide those things then you can have them even if you don't have much money.

This has nothing to do with clinical trials or correlation, it has to do with you failing to understand the basic difference between a government that looks after people and one that lets them die prematurely.

As an example look at the current situation with ventilators. Dyson was awarded the contract because Dyson donates money to the Tory Party. There are other manufacturers who have experience making them that it could have gone to. There is an EU scheme to place bulk urgent orders that the UK was invited to but declined. That's not a correlation, that's a direct cause and effect.
 

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As an example look at the current situation with ventilators. Dyson was awarded the contract because Dyson donates money to the Tory Party. There are other manufacturers who have experience making them that it could have gone to.
3 irritating little facts:

1. Dyson are manufacturing at cost
2. They are battery-powered so that they will work in field hospitals and can be donated to undeveloped countries
3. Other UK manufacturers are also about to go into production.
 

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Discussion Starter #165
Not it isn't. Poverty is not the same thing as having little money. Poverty means having too little money to eat properly
I just knew you were going to pull that sort of stunt on this data ... sigh ....

I understand your point, but that's not what the graph shows.

It provides a proportionate measure of those with a very low income, i.e. if you take a normal distribution of wealth (few very rich, few very poor) it is measuring the height of that lower end of the curve, not necessarily flat out broke but the scale of people in the bell end of the distribution.

To dispute the meaning of the graph, now you have to reject both 'correlation' and 'the normal distribution', the latter being very strongly what the statistics of this pandemic are relying.

If you want to reject all forms of modern statistics that's fine, but don't then go and base your arguments on the same thing! If you want to revert to purely parametric measures of extant data sets (no assumption of correlation, no assumption of normal distribution) you've basically wiped out all the arguments you've just made in respect of any population characteristics.
 

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3 irritating little facts:
I've got just one for you.

1. Dyson didn't design it. A medical device company did. Dyson just turned their production line over to it. In Malasia.

And why are we not part of the EU scheme? We were invited. Brexidiots are killing people with their dogma.
 

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To dispute the meaning of the graph, now you have to reject both 'correlation' and 'the normal distribution', the latter being very strongly what the statistics of this pandemic are relying.
Nah, all you need to do is point out that a person in the US who can't treatment for cancer is far more likely to die than a British person who gets free treatment on the NHS. Being dead brings your life expectancy right down.
 

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I've got just one for you.

1. Dyson didn't design it. A medical device company did. Dyson just turned their production line over to it. In Malasia.

And why are we not part of the EU scheme? We were invited. Brexidiots are killing people with their dogma.
Who cares who designed them, and where, so long as they are provided to the NHS and work.

Agree we should be part of the EU scheme, but your last sentence is unprovable rhetoric.
 

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Agree we should be part of the EU scheme, but your last sentence is unprovable rhetoric.
The Prime Ministers official spokesperson is quoted as saying it's because "the UK is no longer a member of the EU." That sounds like idiotic brexit rhetoric since we are in the transition period and were invited to join in anyway. What other possible reason could there be?

I imagine that would constitute an assault in many countries regardless of the present circumstances.
Yeah, I think it's the 5 year maximum sentence that is new. I mean you wouldn't get 5 years for giving someone coronavirus if they recovered, as a fit police officer probably would.
 

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The Prime Ministers official spokesperson is quoted as saying it's because "the UK is no longer a member of the EU." That sounds like idiotic brexit rhetoric since we are in the transition period and were invited to join in anyway. What other possible reason could there be?
Your sentence mentioned "killing people by dogma". That's what I objected to - it's emotive and unprovable, and doesn't help the current situation at all.
 

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Dyson just turned their production line over to it. In Malasia.
Really?
Dyson is redirecting staff and resources to set up two production lines at a former wartime RAF base at Hullavington, Wiltshire, where the company had previously planned to manufacture an electric car.
 

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Well, the South Koreans also value keeping business going, and they haven't imposed a lock down, so the radio was just telling me, they have relied on science and good social information/controls to integrate information on all new arrivals, lots of testing (50,000 a day) and following through all the contacts of any confirmed cases. The Taiwanese too, likewise. There are still flights in and out of S Korean, the country hasn't stopped.

So lock-downs aren't the only solution in the pot, but what leader in the West is not going to do that when it'd be political suicide not to and open themselves up to criticism.
My understanding, from watching the news this evening, is they started testing very early and tracked peoples movements via their phones and it worked as they did it early on. It is too late to do that now, apparently, and so we are left with trying to control the current outbreak.

I'm sorry but no-one, simply no-one, has yet remotely had a stab at explaining to me why there would be any sort of run on the health care system if the healthy young population were to be free to get on with keeping the economy going?

I mean, really, show me figures of how many under 50s with no underlying health condition are hospitalised, then I might begin to understand what is wrong with my proposal.
How about you look for them and let us all know what the statistic show. I've found a useful job to do delivering frozen food and so don't have the time to have a look, if I even knew where to start looking.
 

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Really?
Dyson is redirecting staff and resources to set up two production lines at a former wartime RAF base at Hullavington, Wiltshire, where the company had previously planned to manufacture an electric car.
My mistake then.

They are now claiming that they didn't get the email inviting them to the EU scheme, but haven't actually asked to join it. Can't get their story straight.
 

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Discussion Starter #175
My understanding, from watching the news this evening, is they started testing very early and tracked peoples movements via their phones and it worked as they did it early on. It is too late to do that now, apparently, and so we are left with trying to control the current outbreak.
Indeed. But even now there is no way we are organised enough to do the 50,000 tests a day they are. I think we are just not as good at applying tech as S Koreans, and that's that.


How about you look for them and let us all know what the statistic show. I've found a useful job to do delivering frozen food and so don't have the time to have a look, if I even knew where to start looking.
I will keep an eye out, but I think I have been persuaded that perhaps Gov stepped in at the moment they felt the NHS 'max' was going to be hit, after the ~two week delay. I accept that, if that is the information they had and the reason they went to 'lock-down', I accept this. The issue, the matter which makes this correct and self-prophesying, is that they waited too long.

My proposal would have been a proposal to be done from the outset, just like the S Korean solution could have been (if we'd had the tech). Gov left it too late to do anything else. No testing, no control, no idea of what was happening, basically. Of course, that is hindsight, and maybe they were hoping the numbers would not get to the point that predicted NHS overload. The numbers did. It is a F-up in hindsight.

The question now is to figure the best strategy at the end of a 3 week lock down. This should now be figured out, but I suspect now it will be a predictable repeat F-up, not in hindsight this time. A F-up in hindsight only is forgivable, a predictable 2nd F-up is not readily forgiveable.
 

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They are now claiming that they didn't get the email inviting them to the EU scheme
Ah, the "It's in the post" excuse. :)

The question now is to figure the best strategy at the end of a 3 week lock down. This should now be figured out, but I suspect now it will be a predictable repeat F-up
Yup, that's my concern.
The problem for us, and Europe and the US, is that we are nowhere near being police states. The countries that have/are being held up as how-to-do-this examples have a fairly well controlled population which makes it much easier to effect draconian actions. As ever, freedom is a double-edged sword.
 

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Sorry for the long post, but don't reply if you don't have time to read.

I think it's not that governments want to force us into a 1984 situation (though I sometimes contemplate that we will, by accident, arrive at that point if a vaccine cannot be developed), nor that we should just believe whatever the media spews at us in a downright alarmist and paranoid way. I watched the other day a Channel 4 news special, in which the anchor was harassing a scientist to admit that it is going to get worse; I believe the anchor should be sent to jail for that behaviour, to send a signal to those that want to profit from people's fears. (Oh wait, that's advertising...) It's not a conspiracy, no one wants to control us out of ill-intent.

Anyhow, I think what scares donald, and to be honest scares the crap of me too, is the rate at which some of our rights have eroded in such a short span of time and the lack of calculated reasoning behind it; WHO says "close borders, lock people down" so governments do it. I think the rate of right deterioration has been higher than that of the virus spread. And people just assume that whatever they're being told on TV is the reality! No, TV or print will not put out headlines like "dog bites man", that's boring and no one reads it, but headlines like "man bites dog"; the extremes! So that's why I think the lockdown was quite inevitable in most countries, because of the mental virus spread by the media. No politician wants to risk being seen as not doing anything or being too easy going on such topics - Trump tried it, but he didn't think it through anyways.

I do not downplay the severity of the virus at all, on the contrary, the symptoms and evolution of the disease in older patients is absolutely painful to watch or even hear of. Italy is struggling, but I doubt it's because of the spread of the virus or people not self isolating; they're unprepared from a managerial point of view, and similarly I believe about Spain. Germany and Netherlands weather it better because they set up their managerial structure pretty damn efficient, not because people all of a sudden agreed to not see each other.

However, a policy maker or administration must have serious evidence to be able to decide, what looks like on a whim, to quarantine 80 million people for having 20.000 infections (I'm talking about Germany here). Yes, the virus can spread quickly, but when the infection rate is below 0.03% of the population... to me it's hard to justify the restrictions that have been put into place for 80 million people. Not death rate of 0.03% of the population, but infection rate.

A virologist will not risk saying "we can weather this", they don't know how a country is prepared to handle a new virus. A politician will not risk saying "well, we hope for the best" (look at how Trump was treated for saying stuff like "it will be over one day"). We, the peasants, will not risk either, since frankly speaking we have no clue about anything in this matter, we rely too much on media and on politicians to... tell us the truth...

And there is no way to prove that the politicians and scientists could potentially, just potentially, be in the wrong, so with eroding rights and a damn horrendous media campaign to scare the crap out of the people, no one has the mental acuity to sort this through in a rational way.

It's not about me not having the rights, but it's the way we, as society, justify the implementation of rights restricting measures that's disconcerting and should be challenged. This is not a discourse, nor is it a scientifically based decision, it's paranoia and hysteria.

Every death is tragic, whether human or animal, but at which point do we decide which risk is greater than which, who decides and on what basis? We don't want people to die from COVID-19, but did we consider that some people might die, in the short, medium and long terms, because of the measures imposed on society to control the spread of COVID-19? No... we really haven't... And while death is tragic (I hear bullets thrown towards me right now), death is the absence of any sensation (I'm an epicurean); I think we should also think about reducing the suffering of those that don't need to suffer. There are now people that suffer because of these measures and there will definitely be a large number of people in the future that will suffer because of the measures we imposed today, but are we discussing about that? No... we aren't...

I decided that I'll use this time of restrictions to improve my own immune system (exercise and cook food much more often than before), stay away from the media, read some Greek philosophy and distance myself from alarmist friends. Life's too short to live it in fear. Don't worry about dying, you will; just like paying taxes. You should worry about living and how to live a good life. (drops mic)
 

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My mistake then.

They are now claiming that they didn't get the email inviting them to the EU scheme, but haven't actually asked to join it. Can't get their story straight.
I love this, the governments defence is that they are incompetent 😂
 

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Matt Hancock admitted on Question Time yesterday that they did in fact know about the scheme. The missed email claim seem to be a lie.
 
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