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The rate is speeding up though. I checked the numbers on Zap-map stats when I wrote an article in my company's internal newsletter.

19/11/2020: 35321
25/01/2021: 37035
02/02/2021: 37458

All numbers taken from : https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/#points on those dates.

Extrapolating that data, the current rate is approx 400/week = 8800 per year. Significantly higher than the "7000 over 3 years" that the article cites - I am sure that's not incorrect, it's just that it's old data now, plus putting the number over 3 years carefully hides that probably it was something like 1000 in year 1, 2000 in year 2 and 4000 in year 3. "7000 over 3 years" makes people think they're being installed at 2300 per year, rather than the accelerating rate that actually underlies the data.
 

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Renault Zoe 50
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OK, back of the *** packet maths:
  • 33 million cars on the road currently.
  • Let's assume that by 2030, half of these will be EVs - so that's 16.5 million cars.
  • Average mileage per car is 12,000 miles (probably less).
  • Assume 90% of charging is done at home, or with local destination charging.
  • So that's 10% of 198 Billion miles per year, at say 3.5 miles per kWh = 5.657 Terra-Wh.
  • Assume an average rapid charging session of 50 kWh, which would result in 113 million sessions.
  • Across the current number of rapid chargers in the UK (over 6,000), that would work out to be 18,857 sessions per charger per year.
  • Or 52 sessions per day. At least twice as many as could physically be provided by each charger.
So roughly speaking, allowing for peak times, we might need at least 4-5 times as many rapid chargers as we have today.

Then allowing for peak times, location, convenience, maybe 10 times that number.

So yes, I can see how you quickly get to 40,000 rapid charging stations required in the UK. :)
 

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2018 Nissan Leaf 40kWh Tekna - love it
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The 50% that don't have access to cheap charging at home need much more consideration. So planners need to accelerate work place charging facilities and charging in other places where we park our cars like railway stations and town centre car parks for shop and office workers.
Hang on, what planners.
 

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OK, back of the *** packet:) maths
It doesn't like *** so try a beer mat next time..

Actually average mileage is nearer 7k a year, even before Covid, so that is some small relief.. The reduction in commuting and business travel as a result of changed practices post-Covid may also dampen down mileage. (Checked..7,400 in 2019)
 
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