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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I note that 2 major wind farms got connected just before Christmas providing up to 1.5 GW of electricity. With low demand and breezy conditions Agile has started to go negative again. Don’t jump yet, we might still have a few weeks of high prices yet, but with the 1.4 GW Hornsea 2 wind farm in commissioning stage and expected to be fully operational in Spring we should have seen an end to the big spike in prices. Gas futures too have fallen to 5p a kWh down from 15p and they may fall further since Quatar are shipping more gas to us as a favoured customer.

SSE/Total are forging ahead with the SeaGreen wind farm using 10 MW turbines will allow them to get the wind farm into operation by the end of 2022 early 2023, adding another 1075 MW to the grid. This wind farm will have 114 turbines to allow it to use its full grid capacity for more of the time.

The future looks bright again.
 

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Nissan LEAF30
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But very attractive if you can move all of your usage via battery storage to the low cost times. In that snapshot 20 30 minute periods were under the 5p cost of Go. If that were typical rather than a day with little industrial demand then it would be worth moving.
 

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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #5 · (Edited)
“ I said don’t jump yet…..! Demand is atypical over Xmas but with gas futures falling rapidly since Dec 20th the cost of CCGT generation must drop? Only 3MW has been generated by gas for most of the last week including times when we have exported all we can. The kinetic energy in rotating turbines allows frequency to be easily controlled. I did note that nuclear has produced close on 7GW which has allowed gas to fall to 2.7 GW. I guess the grid needs about 10GW spinning in case we all switch our kettles on at once. Time for mini kettles for small households?

Edit

Look out for news in the next few weeks of the next cfd auction for new generation. It is quite possible that 10GW will be approved if bid prices fall as might be expected. Robotic surveys of the sea bed, bigger turbines needing fewer foundations and fewer inter array cables could lead to strike prices of 3.5p a kWh or less. And it looks like some of the shovel ready farms are starting work before the auction results are announced asuming that they have won or not worried if they haven’t. SeaGreen is only partially supported by cfds.
 

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I freely admit I have a loose idea of what is being said. BUT if energy prices are due to fall, why are my renewal quotes so damn high?
 

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EGGY
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Quatar are shipping more gas to us as a favoured customer
Did Beck's sort that for us ? Silver lining to Posh's business going t!ts up ?
 
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2021 MINI Cooper SE (Level 2)
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I freely admit I have a loose idea of what is being said. BUT if energy prices are due to fall, why are my renewal quotes so damn high?
Because you’re trying to fix pricing for a long period of time, and that’s based on both the price that the energy companies have bought that energy at (record highs right now) and predictions for the future (uncertainty)

Don’t renew. Don’t fix. Go onto the price cap for now. Wait until the price cap changes in a few months and see where that leaves things. The cap is almost certainly going to go up too, but unless things drastically change they could still work out better then fixing for now.

I’m sure it goes against everything you’ve been told but for now because of the horrible situation variable tariffs which cannot exceed a price cap is better than any fix for the moment. Plus no exit fees when something better comes along.

What you see people talking about here is Octopus Agile. It’s where people have a variable tariff that changes throughout the day in line with actual grid usage. You save money when there’s low levels of demand and they even pay you to use excess energy. But at peak times of demand you’ll pay a lot more.
 

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One of the warmest Decembers on record, which has also combined with good wind conditions. That weather has literally saved us from the brink of collapse for our energy providers and industry.

But it might be windy again in the next couple of months, praise the Anemoi!
 

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Prices won't fall any time soon the same as petrol / diesel haven't fallen since the silly 2 weeks months ago.
 

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I guess the grid needs about 10GW spinning in case we all switch our kettles on at once. Time for mini kettles for small households?
The wife has already lumbered me with the slowest boiling designer looking kettle, she does not even drink tea and coffee! I could chop some logs and light a fire quicker... :mad::LOL:
 

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We've not had a kettle for years and use a boiling water tap. Overall consumption is not noticeably greater than a kettle, but the main thing about its energy use is that it doesn't have big peaks of relatively high power. That means that most of the time during the day the solar panels can cover the things usage, even on a dull day when they are only producing a couple of hundred watts.
 

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[QUOTE="Brian G, post: 3152229, member: 29449"
Look out for news in the next few weeks of the next cfd auction for new generation. It is quite possible that 10GW will be approved if bid prices fall as might be expected. Robotic surveys of the sea bed, bigger turbines needing fewer foundations and fewer inter array cables could lead to strike prices of 3.5p a kWh or less. And it looks like some of the shovel ready farms are starting work before the auction results are announced asuming that they have won or not worried if they haven’t. SeaGreen is only partially supported by cfds.
[/QUOTE]

How true but at the moment i do not see how CfD will work. They were introduced when production costs for the turbines was greater than the selling cost. That situation has now reversed and so they will end up just paying the gov rather than taking the profit. Solar is already being built without CfD so i cannot see why wind would be any different. And dont forget onshore wind in this round.
 

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I wouldn’t count on it just yet. Hunterston Reactor 4 goes offline at 12pm on Friday forever and Hinckley B goes offline in May this year. That’s just under 1.5GW going offline for nuclear and West Burton A coal plant at 2GW scheduled for closure in September so the wind coming online barely cover the losses to be honest
 

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“ I said don’t jump yet…..! Demand is atypical over Xmas but with gas futures falling rapidly since Dec 20th the cost of CCGT generation must drop? Only 3MW has been generated by gas for most of the last week including times when we have exported all we can. The kinetic energy in rotating turbines allows frequency to be easily controlled. I did note that nuclear has produced close on 7GW which has allowed gas to fall to 2.7 GW. I guess the grid needs about 10GW spinning in case we all switch our kettles on at once. Time for mini kettles for small households?

Edit

Look out for news in the next few weeks of the next cfd auction for new generation. It is quite possible that 10GW will be approved if bid prices fall as might be expected. Robotic surveys of the sea bed, bigger turbines needing fewer foundations and fewer inter array cables could lead to strike prices of 3.5p a kWh or less. And it looks like some of the shovel ready farms are starting work before the auction results are announced asuming that they have won or not worried if they haven’t. SeaGreen is only partially supported by cfds.
What does a "shovel ready" OFFSHORE wind farm look like ....joke.
 

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I wouldn’t count on it just yet. Hunterston Reactor 4 goes offline at 12pm on Friday forever and Hinckley B goes offline in May this year. That’s just under 1.5GW going offline for nuclear and West Burton A coal plant at 2GW scheduled for closure in September so the wind coming online barely cover the losses to be honest
Where do you get your 1.5GW?. Hunterston has long been downrated. What output is Hinckley B good for?
To answer my own question, both units at Hinckley B also downrated to 500MW hence total of1.5 GW for three units. That's a big hole in the baseload..
 

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Because you’re trying to fix pricing for a long period of time, and that’s based on both the price that the energy companies have bought that energy at (record highs right now) and predictions for the future (uncertainty)

Don’t renew. Don’t fix. Go onto the price cap for now. Wait until the price cap changes in a few months and see where that leaves things. The cap is almost certainly going to go up too, but unless things drastically change they could still work out better then fixing for now.

I’m sure it goes against everything you’ve been told but for now because of the horrible situation variable tariffs which cannot exceed a price cap is better than any fix for the moment. Plus no exit fees when something better comes along.

What you see people talking about here is Octopus Agile. It’s where people have a variable tariff that changes throughout the day in line with actual grid usage. You save money when there’s low levels of demand and they even pay you to use excess energy. But at peak times of demand you’ll pay a lot more.
We are in the position of our fixed rate ending on the 31st January. We are with British Gas and the fixed rate renewals they have offered are laughable. Details below.

Our current rates are :-

Electric
14.804p kWh
Standing charge 17.266p day
exit £20

Gas
2.660p kWh
Standing charge 13.204p day
exit £20

The "best" fixed rate (Exclusive Energy Jul 2023v2) they have offered is :-

Electric
33.041p kWh
Standing charge 24.320p day
exit £75

Gas
7.285p kWh
Standing charge 17.083p day
exit £75

This would be fixed till July 2023. Needless to say, they can jog on. We'll just drop onto the standard variable rate until the current nonsense prices go away. ( Hopefully )
I did have a look at their "Electric Drivers Feb 2024" rate, it's even more preposterous.

Electric
Peak unit rate 39.372p kWh
Off peak 15.000p kWh
Standing charge 50.061p day

Gas
9.242p kWh
Standing charge 47.698p day

How they think they can jack up all the standing charges, and up the gas unit rate, on an EV tariff is beyond me.

Longer term we're looking at solar with battery storage. High tariffs are bringing the "break even" point of these systems rapidly down. You would think that the producers and energy traders would realize this. They will price themselves out of business.
 

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I wouldn’t count on it just yet. Hunterston Reactor 4 goes offline at 12pm on Friday forever and Hinckley B goes offline in May this year. That’s just under 1.5GW going offline for nuclear and West Burton A coal plant at 2GW scheduled for closure in September so the wind coming online barely cover the losses to be honest
And you cannot count a coal plant that has just been on tickover.

However dont forget capacity factors ie one needs 3-4x as much wind to replace nuclear.
 

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We are in the position of our fixed rate ending on the 31st January. We are with British Gas and the fixed rate renewals they have offered are laughable. Details below.

Our current rates are :-

Electric
14.804p kWh
Standing charge 17.266p day
exit £20

Gas
2.660p kWh
Standing charge 13.204p day
exit £20

The "best" fixed rate (Exclusive Energy Jul 2023v2) they have offered is :-

Electric
33.041p kWh
Standing charge 24.320p day
exit £75

Gas
7.285p kWh
Standing charge 17.083p day
exit £75

This would be fixed till July 2023. Needless to say, they can jog on. We'll just drop onto the standard variable rate until the current nonsense prices go away. ( Hopefully )
I did have a look at their "Electric Drivers Feb 2024" rate, it's even more preposterous.

Electric
Peak unit rate 39.372p kWh
Off peak 15.000p kWh
Standing charge 50.061p day

Gas
9.242p kWh
Standing charge 47.698p day

How they think they can jack up all the standing charges, and up the gas unit rate, on an EV tariff is beyond me.

Longer term we're looking at solar with battery storage. High tariffs are bringing the "break even" point of these systems rapidly down. You would think that the producers and energy traders would realize this. They will price themselves out of business.

I think that, right now, suppliers just don't want the risk, or more probably cannot underwrite the risk, of providing fixed tariff deals, so they are pricing them to dissuade anyone from taking one up. We're on a standard variable electricity tariff, that I'm certain will rise a fair bit in April, but right now it suits us well, at 7.56p/kWh off-peak, 27.773p/kWh peak and a standing charge of 22.97p/day. The batteries are the secret, as we can typically get around 97% of our consumption during the off-peak rate period. I'm hoping that, come April, there is still a hefty difference between the peak and off-peak rates.
 
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