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Model 3 SR+
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Interesting solar update here - 556MW installed first half of 2022, estimating 1.1-1.4GW installed for full year. Major increase in install rate compared to last year

 

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E-Niro 4
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This does not make good reading for France, EU or anyone else interested in nuclear !!
Not to mention 2 of germany’s coal power plants are running intermittently due to low levels in the Rhine so they can’t deliver the coal on the barges. It’s low river levels are also causing problems in France for the nukes that are still running. Unless the rains in autumn, things could still get worse for Europe and us.
 

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Ioniq
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Not to mention 2 of germany’s coal power plants are running intermittently due to low levels in the Rhine so they can’t deliver the coal on the barges. It’s low river levels are also causing problems in France for the nukes that are still running.
I find it grimly ironic that the effects of climate change - lower wind levels in the North Sea, lower reservoir levels in Norway and lower river levels in Germany and France - are making renewable energy less effective, slowing efforts to combat climate change...
 

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ID3 Life Pro - Stonewashed Blue Towbar
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Both solar and wind have been massively up on last year.

Even last year's low wind has been overplayed. Yes it was low July-Sept but we had record levels Oct-Dec and overall it was the second best year in record for. RE.
 

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Ioniq 38kwh 2020
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So what's happening today? Looking at gridwatch we are now importing 1.8GW of French nuclear rather than exporting. I thought there were problems with French nuclear so how come they have spare to send us?
 

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E-Niro 4
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Looks like there’s trouble brewing in Norway. Seems like the price disparities that have been previously discussed on here are really starting to cause trouble and apparently due to a dry spring the reservoirs aren’t as full as they should be. Norway are saying the National grid shouldn’t rely on getting 1.4GW from Norway this winter as Norwegians will come first. Things really are turning into a perfect storm right now. The U.K. can apparently draw 5.7GW from Europe during winter but it’s growing ever likely that is not going to be available. Putin may go down for his war in Ukraine but it seems he may just drag the western world with him at this rate.
 

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So what's happening today? Looking at gridwatch we are now importing 1.8GW of French nuclear rather than exporting. I thought there were problems with French nuclear so how come they have spare to send us?
Standard practice for the French to sell us cheap electricity (as in cheaper than we can produce it) in summer. The French even with reduced reactor output have a huge summer time surplus because they need the installed capacity to meet winter time load since they are so dependent on nuclear and lack diversity of supply. In winter the UK tends to sell to the French so they can meet their peak loads. A fair bit of their nuclear capacity will be offline for routine summer time maintenance and refueliing. Perhaps the heat dome has pushed up French consumption with more A/C being used.
 

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Ioniq 38kwh 2020
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Standard practice for the French to sell us cheap electricity (as in cheaper than we can produce it) in summer. The French even with reduced reactor output have a huge summer time surplus because they need the installed capacity to meet winter time load since they are so dependent on nuclear and lack diversity of supply. In winter the UK tends to sell to the French so they can meet their peak loads. A fair bit of their nuclear capacity will be offline for routine summer time maintenance and refueliing. Perhaps the heat dome has pushed up French consumption with more A/C being used.
Yes I know that is the norm but we had been exporting around 2Gw to France constantly over last couple of months, so what has changed in the last few days so we are now importing? Considering that their nuclear output is also down, is Europe not taking UK electricity as their gas storage is filling up so they are back to producing more of their own?
Edit I see now we are exporting to France but afrom about 10-4pm we have been importing.
 
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Yes I know that is the norm but we had been exporting around 2Gw to France constantly over last couple of months, so what has changed in the last few days so we are now importing? Considering that their nuclear output is also down, is Europe not taking UK electricity as their gas storage is filling up so they are back to producing more of their own?
My guess would be price. Perhaps now more profit from exporting gas directly instead of burning it and selling electricity. So we buy in electricity instead of exporting. Gas prices must have jumped with the even greater challange of building buffer stocks for the winter in Germany given recent Russian actions.
 

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My guess would be price. Perhaps now more profit from exporting gas directly instead of burning it and selling electricity. So we buy in electricity instead of exporting. Gas prices must have jumped with the even greater challange of building buffer stocks for the winter in Germany given recent Russian actions.
There were several times over the weekend where the day-ahead prices on the continent, including France were lower than the equivalent UK. For parts of Sunday is was almost 1/2 the price. Keep in mind we will some times get 'perverse' flows, at least according to spot prices as the interconnection capacity may have been purchased further in advance and long-term contracts are dictating the flow direction.

I am wondering if it was the excess German solar feeding into France and then to the UK.
Could be, the price in the same times was lower for DE than for FR. What I don't know is what the interconnection capacity is between DE and FR, it often looks choked as the prices can be very different. They were pretty similar over the weekend.
 

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Ioniq 5 Ultimate and Twizy
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I think it's increasing likely that the Ukraine will be slowly starved of weapons by delaying deliveries of them and allowing Putin to take a percentage of the country and bring supplies of gas back. Its not the humanitarian thing to do but already Ukraine has slipped lower in news coverage.
 

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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #378 ·
Good news the US LNG port at Freeport in Texas which closed because of fire when a high pressure pipe failed is expected to be back exporting in October. The 7th largest LNG plant in the world which was sending many cargoes to the UK will be sending cargoes to arrive mid November if all goes well. I noted that LNG futures were down a shade and this news is a couple of days old. Of course the tankers need to be available to ship it,
 

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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #379 ·
I think it's increasing likely that the Ukraine will be slowly starved of weapons by delaying deliveries of them and allowing Putin to take a percentage of the country and bring supplies of gas back. Its not the humanitarian thing to do but already Ukraine has slipped lower in news coverage.
I do hope not. The US has just approved another massive arms shipment and apparently they have been able to fit US missiles to some ex soviet fighters for Ukraine. It is quietly becoming a lop sided war in favour of Ukraine. Russia is running low on missiles, their air defences seem poor, the Ukrainian 5th column is making a nuisance of itself within Russia with fires in sensitive places and rail disruptions caused by loose track bolts. Ammunition is running low and Kherson is only accessible by ram shackle ferries. If Ukraine can tie up the 25,000 troops in Kherson fighting without access to tanks and low on ammunition the way to Crimea becomes open. Unfortunately it is likely to be bloody.

There are stories now about in fighting between different battle groups in the Donbas, troops arguing about the order to go into battle in the knowledge that first in are likely to be killed or maimed. The Wagner group shooting those who refuse to fight in front of them. It all sounds very nasty.
 

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Good news the US LNG port at Freeport in Texas which closed because of fire when a high pressure pipe failed is expected to be back exporting in October. The 7th largest LNG plant in the world which was sending many cargoes to the UK will be sending cargoes to arrive mid November if all goes well. I noted that LNG futures were down a shade and this news is a couple of days old. Of course the tankers need to be available to ship it,
Where is the choke point on LNG exports once Freeport is fully back online? Is it pure shipping capacity, eg not enough ships to fully utilise the 'closest' ports, or more an issue of as the 'closest' ports get maxed out you don't have enough shipping capacity to utilise the next set? I believe Canada's LNG infrastructure is Pacific facing. If true this would require quite a lot of shipping capacity, for instance, to get gas to Europe.

Of course the ships can be diverted, but LNG tankers in transit are a form storage, but with significant delays on when you can access it.
 
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