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I am aware of a little friction on pricing in Southern Norway, I suspect they will improve their grid in time as they sell more and it becomes worthwhile to invest more. The UK grid is to have its voltage uprated to 550 and 400 up from 275 and 400. That will add 6 GW to the southbound power. It will be interesting to see if Scotland develops more heavy industry to consume it’s new power. Steel and shipbuilding, fertiliser and biofuels?
It's pretty substantial friction. The prices in the Oslo and Bergen regions are pretty much in lock-step. Unless this is artificially enforced it would indicate that there is no capacity constraint on flows between the two. Kristiansand is quite a bit higher, indicating that the demand there outstrips the capacity from Oslo/Bergen. Trondheim and north are nearly 10X cheaper than Oslo/Bergen, so we can be sure that the interconnections are choked well below the demand and generating capacity. I wonder, and I know it can probably be found, if there are plans/current projects to up N-S capacity in NO. There is a lot of arbitrage potential there, so I would imagine it is either in-progress and/or there are significant frictions in entry to that market.

Incidentally there is almost 50% more capacity on the NSL going from NO-GB than vice versa right now. So my guess is the 'replacement' of the faulty components isn't completely finished. View hourly capacities.
 

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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #143 ·
Yep they’re upgrading the pylons so previously 132kV “supergrid” infrastructure can be upgraded to 400kV
The 275 v links become 400, 400 become 550. The horizontal arms and their triangular supports will become insulated. Some pylons will need to be rebuilt but it is remarkably few!
 

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I'm sure someone will post the link (I couldn't find anything) but I find upping the 400kV network to 550 a bit hard to believe, particularly when they are proposing another brand new branch at 400 across East Anglia currently.
I'm back at Drax in the morning so perfect time to ask but its only been a few years since the gen transformers were switched out in a rotation over several years - I doubt there is any appetite to do so again anytime soon (unless someone else is paying)
 

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I'm sure someone will post the link (I couldn't find anything) but I find upping the 400kV network to 550 a bit hard to believe, particularly when they are proposing another brand new branch at 400 across East Anglia currently.
I'm back at Drax in the morning so perfect time to ask but its only been a few years since the gen transformers were switched out in a rotation over several years - I doubt there is any appetite to do so again anytime soon (unless someone else is paying)
I suspect someone has got "their wires crossed". This report describes how selected 275kV transmission lines might be upgraded to 400kV. Nothing about upgrades to 550kV.

I guess someone will posts links for the 550kV upgrades if such proposals exist, other than the footnote that says it MIGHT theoretically be possible.
 

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Discussion Starter · #146 ·
I found something either on the Ofgem or ESO web site with pictures of the revised arrangement planned for the pylons. Any 400 kV gear could be relocated or repurposed. As I see it the Scotland England boundary doesn’t need a trivial upgrade, the 3 HVDC links will add ~ 6 GW; when upping the 400 kV to 550 kV could replace the current circuits from 15 GW to 21 GW. Looking beyond 2035 we will need up to 50 GW coming from north to south unless we shift steel and cement production to Scotland.

RICA


Utility Week briefed on upgrading 400 kV


I suspect that nothing is certain in the future; that planning for 2030 just got a boost with the Scots awarding over 25 GW of new seabed rights on top of the 3 GW built and 6 in advanced planning/permitted. How much can Scotland consume? North of Dundee there must be a surplus of 10 GW?
 

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Transporting electricity is relatively cheap particularly running costs. I cant wait for the Shetland Isles wind farm to come on line where they have record capacity factors and it will displace a lot of oil burning generation.

As i see it the best places to produce leccy are penalised by having to pay large connection charges etc when in most countries this is just shared by all producers or even the gov.
 

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Discussion Starter · #148 ·
The runes have been cast...

Gas prices on the futures market are rising. Shipping costs have risen across all sectors. The US LNG terminal at Freeport is out of action for 3 months, not 30 days, European gas storage is filling nicely to close on 60% The UK continues to pump gas and send electricity to Europe. We continue to receive the Q max tankers regularly to send on the gas.

SeaGreen wind farm is back on track; from my lay point of view it appears that they have cracked on with cable laying and now that Saipem 7000 is back working the jacket foundations are being dropped in. They are queued at Nigg to be taken on site so there need be no delay during this great time of the year for building in Scotland. If they can erect 4 a week until the end of August and 3 a week thereon the 86 still to be placed could be built by end of November and power coming on shore from September.

I am intrigued as to how the costs of losses from failed suppliers will continue to be recovered from the rest of us? That might have the bigger impact on prices? Electricity has generally been 4/5 times the cost of gas retail, will it be better disconnected in the future?

If we do get an extra 2 GW of wind generation during the coming winter over last year will that extinguish the need for gas overnight? New methods of adding kinetic energy to support frequency have been added, equal to or more than the gas generation of last year, So Nuclear and new spinning could replace gas completely Will that help Go to return to 5p?
 

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The runes have been cast...

Gas prices on the futures market are rising. Shipping costs have risen across all sectors. The US LNG terminal at Freeport is out of action for 3 months, not 30 days, European gas storage is filling nicely to close on 60% The UK continues to pump gas and send electricity to Europe. We continue to receive the Q max tankers regularly to send on the gas.

SeaGreen wind farm is back on track; from my lay point of view it appears that they have cracked on with cable laying and now that Saipem 7000 is back working the jacket foundations are being dropped in. They are queued at Nigg to be taken on site so there need be no delay during this great time of the year for building in Scotland. If they can erect 4 a week until the end of August and 3 a week thereon the 86 still to be placed could be built by end of November and power coming on shore from September.

I am intrigued as to how the costs of losses from failed suppliers will continue to be recovered from the rest of us? That might have the bigger impact on prices? Electricity has generally been 4/5 times the cost of gas retail, will it be better disconnected in the future?

If we do get an extra 2 GW of wind generation during the coming winter over last year will that extinguish the need for gas overnight? New methods of adding kinetic energy to support frequency have been added, equal to or more than the gas generation of last year, So Nuclear and new spinning could replace gas completely Will that help Go to return to 5p?
Electricity prices will likely be at least partially determined by what happens to French nuclear production. I believe some more of the lost IFA1 capacity will return in the autumn. If there is plentiful FR nukes, then it will flow our way keeping price peaks lower, if not then it will flow the other way keeping prices troughs higher. We're sending near 3GW to FR right now, and swapping back and forth on BE, NL, and NO.
 

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I wonder what the heat will have in store for the French reactor fleet. They’ve closed a lot down before because of it and I suspect water shortages could become an issue again too. Never a good sign when your earliest heatwave is recorded in the first half of June.
 

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I wonder what the heat will have in store for the French reactor fleet. They’ve closed a lot down before because of it and I suspect water shortages could become an issue again too. Never a good sign when your earliest heatwave is recorded in the first half of June.
Water supply issues are especially problematic for PWR reactors, but all thermal plants are liable to disruption from that. Would also hammer CCGT efficiencies. My big concern is the homogeneous nature of FR nukes, lots of common parts, where a design flaw can affect the whole fleet. One of the concerns using nukes going forward is lack of portfolio effects, we’re focusing on mass production of a few designs.
 

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How many of the LNG tankers currently clogging up Milford Haven (@Brian G ?) would we have to commandeer to make a dent in the amount of storage we'd need?

More seriously, and back to the topic, I'd like to say a big thanks to whoever posted this link a few weeks back in another thread:
PowerPoint Presentation (nationalgrideso.com)

This is National Grid's take on how to manage wholesale electricity pricing as we move to ever-higher levels of renewables on the grids. Basically the current model of one single national wholesale price causes inefficient allocation of generating resources, resulting in double subsidy payments when under a different system no subsidy would be needed. The best model to address this, according to National Grid, is a hyper-local (nodal) system where prices are determined at the most local level possible (a "node" isn't actually defined in the presentation - anyone got a definition?). Now, in principle I'm sure this sounds fine, but a couple of aspects of it may be scary from the consumer's perspective:

1. The document talks of "how much should the consumer be exposed to the locational price variations"
2. The preferred model seems to be the ERCOT system of Texas - you know, the one that charged people up to $9,000 $/MWh ($9/kWh or about £7.20/kWh when the normal UK wholesale price is more like 10-20p/kWh) in the middle of unseasonably cold weather back in Feb '21.

So it would seem we need to be alert for proposals to "deregulate" the pricing model and get complaining if it seems they are going that way - Octopus Agile as we know already exposes people to the rollercoaster of the wholesale price, but they do at least have a cap of 35p/kWh. I would hope that sort of consumer protection stays in place as a minimum - it's unfair to expose vulnerable consumers to the extreme prices we can see in the middle of winter when the companies serving them should have broad enough shoulders to soak up the seesawing wholesale price.
I'm wondering what the next steps will be regarding nodal pricing; it seems that NG ESO are really keen on it; plus it would appear to help monetise transmission system upgrades. I know it's a good few years off even if they say "definitely yes", but I do wonder what this'd mean for the economy. Presumably the constraint southbound from Scotland would lead to lower prices in Scotland - attracting industry and affording residents there cheaper power; wonder whether the SNP are beating the drum for this change?
 

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Electricity prices will likely be at least partially determined by what happens to French nuclear production. I believe some more of the lost IFA1 capacity will return in the autumn. If there is plentiful FR nukes, then it will flow our way keeping price peaks lower, if not then it will flow the other way keeping prices troughs higher. We're sending near 3GW to FR right now, and swapping back and forth on BE, NL, and NO.
Just looked at the prices for tomorrow. All down quite a bit, as the wind is picking up and temps here are subsiding. From the looks of it we will, generally, be importing from NO and exporting to BE, NL, and especially France. There is about £14avg/MWh arbitrage in importing from Norway and selling on the UK market during this time. It is |£58, £67, and £74avg/MWh selling to NL, BE, and FR. Some of that will be lost in transmission fees, but there is good money to be made. The NSL has a declared NO-GB capacity of 1449MW until 1900CEST tomorrow, when it drops to 1138MW. Still only declaring between 64%-72% that capacity going GB-NO.
 

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Just looked at the prices for tomorrow. All down quite a bit, as the wind is picking up and temps here are subsiding. From the looks of it we will, generally, be importing from NO and exporting to BE, NL, and especially France. There is about £14avg/MWh arbitrage in importing from Norway and selling on the UK market during this time. It is |£58, £67, and £74avg/MWh selling to NL, BE, and FR. Some of that will be lost in transmission fees, but there is good money to be made. The NSL has a declared NO-GB capacity of 1449MW until 1900CEST tomorrow, when it drops to 1138MW. Still only declaring between 64%-72% that capacity going GB-NO.
So...UK has become Europe's marginal electricity clearing house....subsidised by UK consumers. Great outcome for cost of living crisis.
 

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So...UK has become Europe's marginal electricity clearing house....subsidised by UK consumers. Great outcome for cost of living crisis.
Only because there is friction in the ability to supply from NO directly to DE, NL, BE, and FR. Right now we would be paying a bit less for electricity if we had no connections to France (the French would be paying massively more). It's hard to tell as I haven't looked at the marginal but next point of generation. However, last winter had we had less connections with the continent we would have been paying a whole lot more. Also likely that we would have higher spot gas prices as many of the LNG tankers would bypass our docks.
 

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I have enough on trying to keep up with plants let alone prices so what's the market making of imminent loss of ~900MW from Hinkley B?
(For those wishing to watch it's slow death this is the best I can get from EDF's REMIT system as to when each unit will export their final 100MW to the grid)
Hinkley Point B Unit 7: 2022-08-01 09:00
Hinkley Point B Unit 8: 2022-07-06 09:00
 

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I guess Torness and Hartlepool will pick up the slack in the short term as they have a reactor/turbine out each and nothing scheduled for outage now until next year. Should be fine for the summer but one can only assume the new wind coming on stream will pick up some of that slack or the coal plants will
 

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Only because there is friction in the ability to supply from NO directly to DE, NL, BE, and FR. Right now we would be paying a bit less for electricity if we had no connections to France (the French would be paying massively more). It's hard to tell as I haven't looked at the marginal but next point of generation. However, last winter had we had less connections with the continent we would have been paying a whole lot more. Also likely that we would have higher spot gas prices as many of the LNG tankers would bypass our docks.
But the bottom line for UK consumers is we are paying more
 

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I guess Torness and Hartlepool will pick up the slack in the short term as they have a reactor/turbine out each and nothing scheduled for outage now until next year. Should be fine for the summer but one can only assume the new wind coming on stream will pick up some of that slack or the coal plants will
Pretty sure there are non scheduled works at Torness. Otherwise it would be online.
 
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