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With Germany moving to stage 2 for gas rationing, wonder how that will now affect the markets.
It does make you wonder whether somehow the entire european energy market will undergo some sort of nationalisation. Interesting how far down the rationing route you can go before there are price controls in place.
After all, the point of rationing is ultimately to keep a cap on prices, Eg food prices during the war etc.
 

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Discussion Starter · #162 ·
I suspect that it is a bit swings and roundabouts on UK pricing, that the day ahead markets which we follow don't have the massive impact on domestic prices because EDF, BG and others buy ahead in a different market, smoothing the daily difficulties. Octopus has a more reactive system for buying but it too isn't clear how it works for the man on the clapham omnibus - or BEV in Clapham High Street.

I have just seen the headlines that Germany is starting to impose rationing of gas. It strikes me that they have been thinking that they can carry on in their own sweet way and ignore the weaponisation of gas supplies coming up this winter. Evidence now that the penny or centime has now properly dropped. Gas supplies in summer exceed demand and storage across Europe is filling. There is no reason to think that the storage won't be filled by the end of November. Though Russian gas has been a part of the huge build up in storage so far.

The drop in supply from US led North American domestic gas prices to fall. their capacity to export LNG is limited and the Freeport plant is a huge loss to global supply.


Explains it a bit more?

I now get shipping news floating across my screen (pun intended) and a deal has been struck for more LNG tankers to be built. Can't find it but this is relevant, ships can be built quickly but not quickly enough.


The UK is not using all its gas import facilities, nearly all goes into just one terminal in Haverford West at the moment. A similar sized terminal in Grain is hardly ticking over, I assume the UK demand is easily met from gas from the North Sea at this time of year and we are exporting as much as we can via Bacton and by electricity generated by CCGT.

Only the ability to export more electricity or gas would call for us to increase gas imports. Interestingly the appeal against the refusal for an interconnector from Portsmouth to Caen has just been allowed to be examined. It might have had dodgy Russian money behind it but the Grid along the South Coast is well connected to carry more power including that from East Anglia when the wind farms are built.

And @hoggy might advise is Hornsea 2 firing on all 3 cylinders? The first went live in December 2021, but the others?

And we await the news on the current cfd auction. It was due by the end of June. Moray West is showing that matters must be close to being completed; they have ordered foundations and the steel is being cut in China now, the 60 turbines and blades are ordered. If they can get enough contractors working on shore simultaneously to get the ground works done it is quite possible that power will be generated by Dec 2023 getting us closer and close to break even point, where no gas is required!
 

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Pretty sure there are non scheduled works at Torness. Otherwise it would be online.
They have one reactor/turbine out at each facility (Torness and Hartlepool) but not both which equates to around 1GW of generation, that’s what I meant. After they’re back none of EDF‘s reactors are scheduled for any work until next year, assuming something doesn’t show up in the meantime.
 

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It does make you wonder whether somehow the entire european energy market will undergo some sort of nationalisation. Interesting how far down the rationing route you can go before there are price controls in place.
After all, the point of rationing is ultimately to keep a cap on prices, Eg food prices during the war etc.
It does make you wonder. We may end up with blackouts this winter the way things are going, especially if it turns out to be a cold one.
I suspect that it is a bit swings and roundabouts on UK pricing, that the day ahead markets which we follow don't have the massive impact on domestic prices because EDF, BG and others buy ahead in a different market, smoothing the daily difficulties. Octopus has a more reactive system for buying but it too isn't clear how it works for the man on the clapham omnibus - or BEV in Clapham High Street.

I have just seen the headlines that Germany is starting to impose rationing of gas. It strikes me that they have been thinking that they can carry on in their own sweet way and ignore the weaponisation of gas supplies coming up this winter. Evidence now that the penny or centime has now properly dropped. Gas supplies in summer exceed demand and storage across Europe is filling. There is no reason to think that the storage won't be filled by the end of November. Though Russian gas has been a part of the huge build up in storage so far.

The drop in supply from US led North American domestic gas prices to fall. their capacity to export LNG is limited and the Freeport plant is a huge loss to global supply.


Explains it a bit more?

I now get shipping news floating across my screen (pun intended) and a deal has been struck for more LNG tankers to be built. Can't find it but this is relevant, ships can be built quickly but not quickly enough.


The UK is not using all its gas import facilities, nearly all goes into just one terminal in Haverford West at the moment. A similar sized terminal in Grain is hardly ticking over, I assume the UK demand is easily met from gas from the North Sea at this time of year and we are exporting as much as we can via Bacton and by electricity generated by CCGT.

Only the ability to export more electricity or gas would call for us to increase gas imports. Interestingly the appeal against the refusal for an interconnector from Portsmouth to Caen has just been allowed to be examined. It might have had dodgy Russian money behind it but the Grid along the South Coast is well connected to carry more power including that from East Anglia when the wind farms are built.

And @hoggy might advise is Hornsea 2 firing on all 3 cylinders? The first went live in December 2021, but the others?

And we await the news on the current cfd auction. It was due by the end of June. Moray West is showing that matters must be close to being completed; they have ordered foundations and the steel is being cut in China now, the 60 turbines and blades are ordered. If they can get enough contractors working on shore simultaneously to get the ground works done it is quite possible that power will be generated by Dec 2023 getting us closer and close to break even point, where no gas is required!
I suspect getting the stuff cut in China and shipped could be an issue with things still closed out there and ports backed up. Elon has stated this morning I think the shutdowns in China have basically brought Tesla’s facilities to a crawl.
 

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And @hoggy might advise is Hornsea 2 firing on all 3 cylinders? The first went live in December 2021, but the others?
Sadly not. Legs 1 & 3 are working and also fairly well balanced right now at 174MW & 200MW each so I'd say they are done completely barring maybe a few turbines having something done to them.
Leg 2 (the one owned by Sonningmay Wind Limited - Hornsea Project 2 Phase 3 | Low Carbon Contracts Company ) appears to be utterly flatlined for as far back as I can see. Not sure what the status is of that one physically.

I assume the UK demand is easily met from gas from the North Sea at this time of year and we are exporting as much as we can via Bacton and by electricity generated by CCGT.
It appears that way > Product Rectangle Azure Font Line
 

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Sadly not. Legs 1 & 3 are working and also fairly well balanced right now at 174MW & 200MW each so I'd say they are done completely barring maybe a few turbines having something done to them.
Leg 2 (the one owned by Sonningmay Wind Limited - Hornsea Project 2 Phase 3 | Low Carbon Contracts Company ) appears to be utterly flatlined for as far back as I can see. Not sure what the status is of that one physically.


It appears that way -
View attachment 163431
Looking at TerraVolt on the PC version, there appears to be new screens with graphics for UK gas storage, both in gaseous phase and as a liquid. Both nearing full capacity.
 

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Looking at TerraVolt on the PC version, there appears to be new screens with graphics for UK gas storage, both in gaseous phase and as a liquid. Both nearing full capacity.
I'd just like to point out to anyone using that storage thing my little "get out" at the bottom:

*Percentages based on the assumption that total storage capacity of Gas is 18,000GWh & LNG is 13,000GWh.
Awaiting confirmation from National Grid.


National Grid are yet to confirm with me what the max actually is and every other source gives a different number for how much we can truly store...
 

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MG ZS EV
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Discussion Starter · #168 ·
It does make you wonder. We may end up with blackouts this winter the way things are going, especially if it turns out to be a cold one.

I suspect getting the stuff cut in China and shipped could be an issue with things still closed out there and ports backed up. Elon has stated this morning I think the shutdowns in China have basically brought Tesla’s facilities to a crawl.
I think there is a difference; the ships that bring steel structures are not the ones that carry containers. At the moment there are empty containers stacked up in Europe that are blocking ports here for the arrival of new stuff. There is a small queue at Nigg of ships unloading the jacket foundations for SeaGreen. Whilst those ships take 6-8 weeks to get here from China they don't ever carry containers having large flat decks close to the water line. I have just picked up that offshore work on Moray West won't start this year but the project partners are all with committed contracts. Expect power in November 2023. The turbine numbers are down to 60 14.5 MW. Won't take long to build.
 

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Discussion Starter · #169 ·
Sadly not. Legs 1 & 3 are working and also fairly well balanced right now at 174MW & 200MW each so I'd say they are done completely barring maybe a few turbines having something done to them.
Leg 2 (the one owned by Sonningmay Wind Limited - Hornsea Project 2 Phase 3 | Low Carbon Contracts Company ) appears to be utterly flatlined for as far back as I can see. Not sure what the status is of that one physically.


It appears that way > View attachment 163431
Orsted said that Covid issues late last year prevented crew boats from getting access to turbines for commissioning work. They predicted work would finish round about now. With luck they will be sorted by September when the wind starts to blow again. Though Saturday and Sunday AM is looking good this week.
 

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Discussion Starter · #170 ·
I'd just like to point out to anyone using that storage thing my little "get out" at the bottom:

*Percentages based on the assumption that total storage capacity of Gas is 18,000GWh & LNG is 13,000GWh.
Awaiting confirmation from National Grid.


National Grid are yet to confirm with me what the max actually is and every other source gives a different number for how much we can truly store...
I had a melt down trying to work this out. Ofsted have a list of storage sites in mcm; BEIS in tonnes of oil equivalent.... :mad:

The plant at Grain is to have 2 more large LNG tanks added to its storage in the next year or two. No LNG tankers due to arrive there in the next 2 weeks?
 

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Discussion Starter · #171 ·
So for next winter over and above last winter:

Hornsea 2 800 MW
SeaGreen 1150 MW
Neart Na Goith 450 MW

For December 2023

Moray West 950 MW
Dogger Bank A 1200 MW
Viking (Shetland) 450 MW

Plus a host of others with consent:
Hornsea 3 2400
Inchcape 1080
East Anglia 1,2 & 3 3100 MW
Norfolk (3) 3600MW
and 3 on Dogger Bank due to be finished by 2026 of 3800 MW

Maximum wind was just under 20 GW a few weeks ago, so that will be broken by ` 2.5 GW over the winter/spring. This just exceeds the minimum gas used overnight last winter and we were exporting. It could be possible that gas isn't required on some nights in the next 12 months but almost definitely in the 12 months after. Will nuclear and other spinning devices stop the need for gas?

I hope the people at the National Grid know their industrial history of Lancashire. Cotton Mill steam engines of the type at Wigan Pier occasionally suffered metal fatigue, shattered and demolished mills. My Auntie Annie's back yard was filled with debris from a close by cotton mill in the late 1950s. All was not lost; her outside privy with a tiller escaped with only a few slates being cracked. Oh the relief! (Go on look up tipler!)
 

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The total pipeline is now more than 86GW – around 33GW higher than it was 12 months ago. This makes the UK a major frontrunner in the global offshore wind race. RenewableUK has tracked a pipeline of 517GW globally, to which the UK is the largest contributor.23 Mar 2022
 

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So for next winter over and above last winter:

Hornsea 2 800 MW
SeaGreen 1150 MW
Neart Na Goith 450 MW

For December 2023

Moray West 950 MW
Dogger Bank A 1200 MW
Viking (Shetland) 450 MW

Plus a host of others with consent:
Hornsea 3 2400
Inchcape 1080
East Anglia 1,2 & 3 3100 MW
Norfolk (3) 3600MW
and 3 on Dogger Bank due to be finished by 2026 of 3800 MW

Maximum wind was just under 20 GW a few weeks ago, so that will be broken by ` 2.5 GW over the winter/spring. This just exceeds the minimum gas used overnight last winter and we were exporting. It could be possible that gas isn't required on some nights in the next 12 months but almost definitely in the 12 months after. Will nuclear and other spinning devices stop the need for gas?

I hope the people at the National Grid know their industrial history of Lancashire. Cotton Mill steam engines of the type at Wigan Pier occasionally suffered metal fatigue, shattered and demolished mills. My Auntie Annie's back yard was filled with debris from a close by cotton mill in the late 1950s. All was not lost; her outside privy with a tiller escaped with only a few slates being cracked. Oh the relief! (Go on look up tipler!)
Thanks for the updates! From where do you get this news; is it something accessible to the public?
 

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Discussion Starter · #174 · (Edited)
Thanks for the updates! From where do you get this news; is it something accessible to the public?
It is all public information.

Each of the wind farms has its own web site. Renewable UK has a database of wind farms you can access but it is usually a bit behind progress, for example there are some completed which are showing as in construction, whether this is a technical or contractual issue I don't know but completed wind farms are still showing as in construction.

And Submarine Cable Consulting & Market Intelligence | 4C Offshore has a news blog which is up to date and then google sometimes also produces news info. The planning inspectorate has a lot of information on siting etc.

Edit:

The building of wind farms has got very slick. The on shore works can be as disruptive and difficult as offshore now that easy access to the grid has been used up by the early wind farms. Depending on the sea bed work required the turbines can go up quickly, 2-3 days to get a foundation sunk though Neart Na Goith seems to be building on rock? and a day or two for each turbine to go up. But provided all the survey work is complete in detail, and for the new off shore farms it is, it is a matter of about 18 months to get a GW wind farm built.
 

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It is all public information.

Each of the wind farms has its own web site. Renewable UK has a database of wind farms you can access but it is usually a bit behind progress, for example there are some completed which are showing as in construction, whether this is a technical or contractual issue I don't know but completed wind farms are still showing as in construction.

And Submarine Cable Consulting & Market Intelligence | 4C Offshore has a news blog which is up to date and then google sometimes also produces news info. The planning inspectorate has a lot of information on siting etc.
Like lots of things it may all be publicly available, but there is significant effort required to find and collate it. So thank you for having done the leg work.
 

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FYI - SeaGreens BMU IDs they will be using are approved here (which is what I'll be pulling data from.)
Of which the first has made it to the BMU database but not to Elexon's API yet... (I can't add it yet with no data as I've set the tracker page up to show a huge -9999MW consumption when Elexon streams don't respond with a value (so I know there's something wrong!))
Nothing showing for Neart na Gaoithe yet but as the substation has only just been plonked out to sea I may be being a bit to keen on that one.
 

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Discussion Starter · #178 ·
FYI - SeaGreens BMU IDs they will be using are approved here (which is what I'll be pulling data from.)
Of which the first has made it to the BMU database but not to Elexon's API yet... (I can't add it yet with no data as I've set the tracker page up to show a huge -9999MW consumption when Elexon streams don't respond with a value (so I know there's something wrong!))
Nothing showing for Neart na Gaoithe yet but as the substation has only just been plonked out to sea I may be being a bit to keen on that one.
Thanks.

NNG does seem to be slow going but their access to grid is easy I think?

Seagreen has just one platform for all 3 connections to shore. Their progress seems haphazard, probably dependant on the order of the arrival of the jacket foundations? But progress is now rapid. Tracking Saipem 7000 and Wind Orca you can tell they are buzzing about like bees. I look forward to next weeks Notice to Mariners to see how it has changed from this week.

@Pmholling this is another source of information...

They are not all published via the off shore web site some via 3rd party or Ports Authorities.
 

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The turbine numbers are down to 60 14.5 MW. Won't take long to build.
I highlighted this to emphasise how much progress has been made. In 2016 I visited Brighton for a concert and saw Rampion being built out at sea. From memory I believe the turbines are 3.4MW..
 

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Discussion Starter · #180 · (Edited)
I highlighted this to emphasise how much progress has been made. In 2016 I visited Brighton for a concert and saw Rampion being built out at sea. From memory I believe the turbines are 3.4MW..
Correct and there are 116 of them, it is so soporiphic watching them spin and counting them (or is that the effect of the smoke blown out from central Brighton?). Gosh it was hard work getting it built... even a JCB got washed off the beach!

Even more so is the survey work now done by drones. Robotic boats trawl up and down for days with the sonar and other attachments to measure the sea bed without stopping. And when they are close to final design robots search for UXB and other snags in cable pathways. Some of the wind farms have required massive work on getting rid of bombs, off Suffolk and Lincolnshire. It is all of this with efficiency in design for quick building that has brought the price down.
 
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