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Looks ominous.

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Oh, I thought you'd already started that.

"You're no expert"
"They are Chinese"

etc...

For about the 10th time now I will ask the question again; If you say provisional conclusions are NOT to be based on provisional data, then based on what? Please answer the question.

(I will keep asking that every time you post. Just answer it!)
That's another of your favourite tactics isn't it? Ask the same irrelevant question over and over again
 

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Environmental factors could be contributing to the high mortality rate in Chinese cities. The combination of respiratory disease and suspended respirable particles could be deadlier than the virus alone. A similar hypothesis posited in Live Science highlights children are less likely to be hospitalised by Covid-19, and children have healthier respiratory tracts.

All hypotheses at this stage are highly speculative, and as few European cities are volunteering to run a controlled experiment, hopefully the threat remains speculative.

Personally, I am concerned about when to start working from home for self-preservation. The remaining challenge is food, which needs to be either delivered by someone who has been round the houses, or requires me to enter a germ infested supermarket (no evidence of viruses specifically).

Too early to consider Covid-19 parties, I suppose..
Pox party - Wikipedia
 

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That's another of your favourite tactics isn't it? Ask the same irrelevant question over and over again
LOL.

OK, explain how asking 'what would you do with the current data, then?' is irrelevant to considering how to use the current data?
 

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Sorry, I didn't realise you'd already dodged the question.

This isn't an answer. Your critique has initially been that there is not enough information, not enough data yet. What extra data do you think epidemiologists are working with?

Your critique has been;
  • @BurningNaturalGas didn't have enough data, then when challenged that this is all the data anyone is working with,
  • @BurningNaturalGas was not qualified as an epidemiologist, then when I offered corroborating opinion from an epidemiologist,
  • not the right nationality of epidemiologist
.. and then your excuses seem to have dried up, I guess you realised the 'nationality' thing was probably not the right direction to move the goal posts in.

Can you please just clarify which of the above you are accusing @BurningNaturalGas of, just so we're all clear what your failed attempt to rubbish his opinion actually was?
 

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Discussion Starter #86 (Edited)
All infectious diseases are naturally sustainable otherwise they would die out before they started.
For several weeks the optimists appeared to hope that Covid-19 was not transmitting from human to human despite the number of cases rising. The logical inference is that certain sustainable viruses are viable only when infecting specific species, and are inviable (or less viable) when infecting other species.

Those hopes have now truly unravelled. UK:


Singapore:
127709
 

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Discussion Starter #87 (Edited)
@BurningNaturalGas was not qualified as an epidemiologist...
With respect to this argument my view is that the number of international public health projects that any of us have led, specifically dealing with distribution and control of diseases, is immaterial. Our common effort is that we are speculatively analysing events and quantifying the relationships between inflows and outflows.

Achieving 100% accuracy is infeasible. There is scant rigour in my anonymous posts because time and effort is valuable, and if my posts were valuable then I would publish them with my full name and contact details. These limitations do not, however, disclose my profession.

I am curious to know what @Bertie imagines my profession is - but in either case I would not confirm or deny.
 

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Discussion Starter #89
Errr ... no ... Feng Luzhao, a researcher in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Chinese Center for Disease Control, said it.

Does he fall into your 'unqualified' group of people, just talking out of his hat?

If not what he says, then what? You still haven't propose the alternative form of analysis that I asked you to propose.

"Currently, one patient can spread the virus to two or three people in general, that's what we called the R0 – Basic Reproduction Number. We're taking medical measures including quarantining, following-up with close contacts, and non-medical measures like reducing gatherings and mobility, delaying school openings, as well as individual protection measures like mask-wearing. These all aim to reduce and slow down the spread, like reducing the R0 to below 1, in the end, to eradicate the virus"

Transmission with 15 seconds exposure is comparable to the common cold. This concerns me because I spend considerably longer than 15 seconds in public crowds during my daily commutes. It brings into question the decision by UK authorities to not quarantine the Uber driver.
 

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Discussion Starter #90
The article you are so keen on says in about the 2nd paragraph that the number of cases in China outside of Hubei is falling. Do you believe that?
The statement was published five days ago and may have mirrored figures available at that time. This horrible news suggests the virus may have been in Japan from at least January.

 

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Discussion Starter #91
 

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.. and then your excuses seem to have dried up, I guess you realised the 'nationality' thing was probably not the right direction to move the goal posts in.
Discussing with you is pointless Donald. You made up this 'nationality' thing all by yourself.

Did you see that the chair of the WHO was asking for a vaccine for misinformation today?
 

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Discussion Starter #93 (Edited)
There are a number of reasons which could explain why the death rate in Hubei appears to be much higher than in the rest of China (about 10x I think), which is why you shouldn't extrapolate from the Hubei numbers to global level.
I strongly disagree.

As you assert I am not an expert in anything, I have chosen to very carefully quote the following observation. According to Forbes, "... harpoon injuries tend to be relatively straightforward, at least from an initial identification standpoint ..."
  • Patients do not walk in with COVID-19 spelled out on his or her forehead
  • China was trying to test specimens from respiratory tracts for the presence of the virus
  • These are lab tests that rely on the target DNA sequence in the virus being unique and stable
  • USA deemed the need for this test so urgent that it bypassed usual regulatory requirements and evaluation
  • The test has proven unreliable for COVID-19, which suggests the test needs more testing
  • Fewer healthcare workers outside Wuhan are likely to have easy access to the unreliable test
  • Limiting case counts to only those who test positive underestimates the number of cases
  • Wuhan then abandoned the unreliable DNA lab test and adopted a CT imaging test
  • Even fewer healthcare workers can conduct a CT test
For these reasons I suggest that holistic estimates should take figures from Wuhan, where the data quality is least bad, and extrapolate to deliver an evidence-based scenario analysis.

I am conscious, however, that I do not understand the logic of confining together suspect cases and then releasing some but not others. My fear would be that some could contract the virus while in or entering quarantine; we are now required to trust NHS tests are superior to the tests that failed in China.


P.S. I bake my coat/gloves/etc. overnight in warm dry air because such environments are thought to kill coronaviruses. I do not know the temperature or duration required.
 

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Discussing with you is pointless Donald. You made up this 'nationality' thing all by yourself.
Eh? Sorry, who, exactly, mentioned the nationality of the epidemiologist I referenced!?!?!

Are you kidding? Is this your debating style, say stuff then deny it?

Yes, mine is to keep asking the same question. It is better than continually altering one's denials!
 

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Discussing with you is pointless Donald. You made up this 'nationality' thing all by yourself.

Did you see that the chair of the WHO was asking for a vaccine for misinformation today?
5000 new cases in China in the last day, just reported.

... Seems that the debating is pointless with you ..... facts are irrelevances. I can imagine a point in time where everyone on the planet has had the disease, several to 100s million have died, and you will say 'let's not panic yet, the data is not clear'.
 

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Discussion Starter #96

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Eh? Sorry, who, exactly, mentioned the nationality of the epidemiologist I referenced!?!?!

Are you kidding? Is this your debating style, say stuff then deny it?

Yes, mine is to keep asking the same question. It is better than continually altering one's denials!
I have no idea why I'm still engaging with you - and it must be as boring as hell for everyone else - but go back through this thread and see if you can find anywhere that I have mentioned the nationality of the scientist. You will find I never have, it's only ever been mentioned by yourself.
 

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I have no idea why I'm still engaging with you - and it must be as boring as hell for everyone else - but go back through this thread and see if you can find anywhere that I have mentioned the nationality of the scientist. You will find I never have, it's only ever been mentioned by yourself.
Your source is a news outlet of the Chinese Communist Party.
 

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For these reasons I suggest that holistic estimates should take figures from Wuhan, where the data quality is least bad, and extrapolate to deliver an evidence-based scenario analysis.
Yesterday the way of counting cases was changed, which effectively invalidated all previous data. Today, 108 deaths have been removed due to double counting, which further invalidates previous data. In a locked down, quarantined city with an overwhelmed healthcare system, it's obviously difficult to get the numbers right. I'm also not an expert in epidemiology, which is why I try to avoid making my own conclusions, but I can also see many reasons why Wuhan could be atypical.
 
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