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Looks ominous.

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Discussion Starter #101 (Edited)
Yesterday the way of counting cases was changed, which effectively invalidated all previous data.
Underlined is factually incorrect.

The old set of data points correspond to flawed DNA tests and reflect trends in a subset of cases that were severe, late-stage, and conducted logistically near to the lab. The new set of data points correspond to CT tests and reflect states in a broader spectrum of cases. The old trend can be applied to the new data.

Bertie said:
108 deaths have been removed due to double counting
After the data is corrected the trend lines can be revised.
 

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Discussion Starter #102 (Edited)
I'm also not an expert in epidemiology, which is why I try to avoid making my own conclusions, but I can also see many reasons why Wuhan could be atypical.
  • No sensible person would draw conclusions in an evolving situation.
  • You have not said how you know I am not an epidemiologist - is it well known that epidemiologists do not drive EVs? Have I made a conclusively anti-epidemioligstic statement?

Hundreds contacted by UK authorities. UK adopted new Coronovirus laws. If cases are emerging in the UK today, then the cold virus has been circulating in UK for at least two weeks. How many households have it?
 

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Discussion Starter #103

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Discussion Starter #104
Famine:

Pestilence:
Today I spoke with someone who is quarantined at home in the UK. They needed to drive with car windows closed to a booth at A&E where they were met by NHS workers in protective gear. Following a swab and a test they were presented with a NHS certificate and instructed them to remain home for two weeks.
 

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Discussion Starter #105

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Apparently there's a case in China (can't link to the article in Chinese, but had it translated) of someone who got the disease, got cured and tested negative, then got tested positive again a week later.

Dam, I thought my solution of letting it loose, having everyone infected, losing about 1% of the world population, and then be all protected and the disease disappearing, may not actually be a solution.
 

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Famine:

Pestilence:
Today I spoke with someone who is quarantined at home in the UK. They needed to drive with car windows closed to a booth at A&E where they were met by NHS workers in protective gear. Following a swab and a test they were presented with a NHS certificate and instructed them to remain home for two weeks.
I guess you don't need much help with 'war', just at the moment? (or ever, it seems....) sigh ....

I can list the natural disasters that are long past their statistically periodic re-occurrences, if that helps.
 

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Discussion Starter #108
@donald, my view is that society must adapt to changes in social systems - noting "the fear of death is what keeps us alive". As COVID-19 appears able to contaminate food chains my view is that Europeans may soon restore boiled water and overcooked stodge to their daily routines.

China's fatality rate is falling and now stands at 11% (2,239 deaths and 18,681 recoveries). This is higher in Wuhan where Xi's pox-party quarantine policy may be worsening recovery conditions - according to Chinese witnesses.

 

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@donald, my view is that society must adapt to changes in social systems - noting "the fear of death is what keeps us alive".
Yes, I think that is correct, and always will be.

As you point out with a good example, the problem is when an 'artificial' solution is imposed, all this tends to do is create another set of problems. (This is not just in respect of crises like this, but any social constructs must change organically or they have no hope of remaining or having the desired effect.)

Noted is your good excuse for why British food is stodgy and over-boiled. I am not sure whether I should thank you or scorn you for that... ;)

One thing I really have disliked for my whole life, and funnily enough forgot all about it but this scenario has caused it to resurface, is the British instinct to cough into their hands. I find it disgusting. IIRC that is what we were 'taught', but I never accepted that as being remotely hygienic. I will pull out a tissue, and ensure I am armed with such a thing, or if not available for some cause fold my arm over my face and cough into my inner elbow. Gone are the days of having a handkerchief strategically placed into the outer pocket of a jacket. As you infer, there are reasons people did stuff like that, but times change and we forget, sometimes dying from the error of forgetting why. Not forgetting gloves, and also a hat to keep one's scabby hair in place and/or help reduce it getting coated in smog. The spats to help reduce dirt up your leg is probably more than I would think is a good idea, however, I will put that down as a pure fashion accessory .. unless of course it was a leftover from walking into horse manure on the streets I suppose, one less feature of a past society which has changed for the better ... thank goodness for the motor car .. ;)

127995
 

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Just reading a report that the coronavirus may be spreading asymptomatically.

A highly contagious disease with fatal outcomes that can spread asymptomatically and via water supplies and food as well as surface contact and via the eyes, wow, that is about the worst characteristics for Mathus' pestilence horseman I can imagine.

I don't think there is any point in worrying about this, just let it propagate and pick up the bodies once it is all over.

Perhaps containment for as long as it takes to make and distribute a vaccine will help, but is that really possible at a global scale?
 

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Discussion Starter #111 (Edited)
I don't think there is any point in worrying about this, just let it propagate and pick up the bodies once it is all over.
That is one feasible outcome - and it is also possible that there is no end. As @Zomb highlights, our immune system may be too specialised to efficiently control this virus.

Do you think it is worth trying to find an alternative to wild propagation?

 

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Even without a serious outbreak (yet?) in the UK, this kind of behaviour is concerning:


Woman beaten in 'coronavirus rage' attack after defending Chinese friend from abuse


"A woman was savagely beaten in Birmingham after defending her Chinese friend from being racially abused over the coronavirus outbreak.

Meera Solanki, from Solihull, was punched and knocked unconscious while celebrating her birthday at Ana Rocha Bar and Gallery in the city centre earlier this month.

The 29-year-old said her Chinese friend Mandy Huang, 28, was subjected to racist abuse by a man who was with a group of Asian men."
 

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China's fatality rate is falling and now stands at 11% (2,239 deaths and 18,681 recoveries).
Is the fatality rate actually declining or is the data getting more reliable now that the various early issues in Wuhan are skewing the data less?

The WHO, who presumably have access to richer data and more sophisticated algorithms, have published a death rate of 2.67%, which is actually very gradually increasing.
 

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~200 million to go, then? Should ease the burden on the planet a bit.

Apparently males over 40 years old are most prone. A well represented group here on the forum.

:cautious:
 

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I don't think there is any point in worrying about this, just let it propagate and pick up the bodies once it is all over.

Perhaps containment for as long as it takes to make and distribute a vaccine will help, but is that really possible at a global scale?
Finally....I agree with this!!

I'm no expert, but are the lockdowns we are seeing in China, Korea and Italy sustainable on a global scale for months at a time?

I suspect this ends up as an endemic disease, which will eventually be normalised, with just critical cases hospitalised, and it'll be managed in the same way as other potentially serious infectious diseases, such as flu, bacterial pneumonia and others.

That's far from a good outcome, but neither is it apocalyptic. Worrying about it - other than taking obvious hygiene precautions - is not going to influence the outcome :(
 

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~200 million to go, then? Should ease the burden on the planet a bit.

Apparently males over 40 years old are most prone. A well represented group here on the forum.

:cautious:
If you assume 100% of the population contract it, which is unlikely. The most pessimistic number I've seen is 60%. That's still a lot of people, but I assume we'll gradually get better at treating it as knowledge grows, and there might one day be a vaccine/cure (no guarantees though)
 

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Finally....I agree with this!!

I'm no expert, but are the lockdowns we are seeing in China, Korea and Italy sustainable on a global scale for months at a time?

I suspect this ends up as an endemic disease, which will eventually be normalised, with just critical cases hospitalised, and it'll be managed in the same way as other potentially serious infectious diseases, such as flu, bacterial pneumonia and others.

That's far from a good outcome, but neither is it apocalyptic. Worrying about it - other than taking obvious hygiene precautions - is not going to influence the outcome :(
As per the 'corona virus rage' post, there is potential for a significant amount of harm from panic buying, shortages and people just generally being not very nice to fellow human beings.

Perhaps it is as well to accept that its too late to bolt the stable door?
 
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