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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hello all

Looking for advice based on ye’er collective experience on whether the following scenario is even possible.



I have the once-off potential to invest in a pre-owned e-NV200. For this to work for my personal circumstances I will need to be able to keep this van on the road for 15 years (I’m not in the usual commercial van demographic). Am I being naive or is this possible?

Some basic info.

-The van I’m interested in is a 2015 model with 25,000 miles on it (not sure of battery health but will be finding that out)

-My commute would be a 40 mile round trip twice weekly with a max load of 150-200kg, with shorter (5 mile) school runs etc mixed in.

-I realise that a battery change/upgrade will be necessary, say in 5 years, to reach my fifteen year goal. Can I trust Nissan to be still supplying this battery (assuming newer batteries won’t be interchangeable) Is this a potential pitfall in my plan. I understand that there is the potential for aftermarket help for this but I’m going to assume it will be restricted to the UK and difficult for me to avail of from here in Ireland.



I have emailed Nissan sales here in Ireland who were understandably non committal in their reply.



Thanks in advance



Pat
 

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You're looking at 5000 miles/yr + school trips whatever else, lets say 6000/yr for 15 yrs = 90,000, then add the 25 done already = 115,000 miles. That's going to exceed any warranty Nissan might offer, the best seem to be 8 years/100,000 miles whichever comes first. So if the van has 8yr wty, you have 6 left, and after that it's anyone's guess whether anyone will offer you an extension warranty, and by then the batteries will be such old tech that you won't be able to get "brand new" ones to replace the lot. I believe Leaf taxis have managed very large mileages, so with care you may be able to survive without any replacement needed, and even if your range drops over time, I would think that 40 miles should be doable.

The risk with any EV that's out of warranty is that something electrical, other than the battery (which seem to slowly fade away rather than drop dead suddenly) wil fail, needing a possible expensive repair. If the on-board charger fails, you may be completely stuck, and at the mercy of Nissan to charge you maybe £1500 to fix, who knows?

Asking 15 years seems a tall order, as these cars haven't been around that long, and electronics stuff generally has a "bath-tub" failure curve; this means that anything that's going to die will either die quickly in the first few months, or will last a large number of years, but then things really do start to wear out. Eventually failure will happen, as these transistors etc are handling large currents, warming & cooling each time the car's used, causing fatigue. What we don't yet know is how many years we can expect, before we see that bathtub curve starting to rise. And we don't know the costs of repairing, and also how long before the next item fails the same way.

I think you would be wise not to depend completely on having 15 years use. If you can work out the saving of using electricity .vs. the alternative diesel/petrol van, it may be that after 6 yrs when present warranty dies, that you've saved enough
cash to be able to do a PCP on a newer van, or buy the equivalent 2nd-hand van that's 2-3 years old then but which will have a lot better range, maybe 150 miles no sweat. A 2015 e-NV200 is going to be worth next-to-nothing in 6 years time, as will have no wty, tiny range, potentially costly repair could happen any time without warning, while a diesel van of the same age might still be running fine, and should be relatively easy to get fixed locally.

It's a bit of a gamble, I think. If the cost savings look really good over 6 years then it could be a good bet, but your mileage isn't huge so I don't think the savings will be huge either. If you can get the e-NV for a tiny sum then go for it, but I think that it's going to depreciate down to pretty-much zero value over the next 6 years.
 

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No one really knows about 15 years, it was probably made in 2014 so it's going to be 18 years old.

I'd suspect battery tech will come on so much in that time that you will have the battery replaced with a much bigger one at some point.

We have had several of these vans and they seem to be bullet proof at least within the warranty period.

Have you considered the newer model? It goes about twice as far and because of the bigger battery will last much longer in terms of state of health.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Thank ye all for the replies, much appreciated.

Just to clarify that this is an opportunity for me that wouldn’t normally occur to make this purchase

My equation of 15 years is because I am willing to spend way more on an EV than I normally would contemplate for a ICE van/car, but the lowest I can enter the market is well above what my general means would logically imply.

It is an aspirational purchase that may make some economic sense

as ownership approaches 10-15 years. Resale value is not part of the equation.

If I take the 15 year lifespan off the table, is the alternative to upgrade every 4ish years? Forgive me if my assumption is wrong but I think with the depreciation I have seen in the first gen. model this would imply an additional cost on top of the original purchase price of, at a wild guess £1500/2000 per annum, which in my context doesn’t make economic sense.

The ‘bathtub curve’ failure rate is worrisome, but probably/hopefully equal or less than the gamble that I would have to take on an older diesel van with way more miles and sketchy history (a prejudice based on the purchase of one camper van)

Distilling ye’re replies as objectively as I can my best approach would appear to be to hold off until the 2nd generation starts hitting the used market, thus potentially sidestepping the need for a replacement battery (even though from what HandyAndy suggested that my milage being so low a first generation van might get me there). This assumes the pricing follows a trajectory completely invented within my own head!

It will also help to bolster, or not, faith in the brand. (My faith is fairly strong as is as I am presently driving a 1999 almera that has required surprisingly little TLC).



Thanks again for all the replies.



Pat
 

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If you're in the position of someone giving you a "gift horse", or a huge discount off the usual price of the e-NV200, then it may make sense to go for it, run the van for 4-5 years while under warranty, and think again at that stage. Your running costs & servicing should be lower in the EV, annual road-tax should save a bit, and the discount on the price may cover the possibly larger depreciation this van might have. You may find some insurers don't understand EVs and might not quote, so I'd get that checked out. But personally I wouldn't want to splash out a large part of my savings just to get an electric van, as you'll have even less cash in hand if you suddenly need it for some other emergency, like CH boiler dies & suddenly you need new one for 5k, or whatever.

Unless you're able to get a good discount off normal price, I can't see what other "opportunity" would arise that would tempt you, as there must be other e-NV200s out there to buy? I wouldn't accept someone saying "they're really hard to come by, so make sure you get mine while you can!". And I'd also check whether it's a leased, or owned battery. You don't want to find you're suddenly tied into some fixed monthly rental that hadn't been mentioned...

Autotrader has a couple of 2016 models here in UK at around 17K, low mileages, while brand-new seems nearer 32K. So definitely worth getting 2nd hand as opposed to brand new, I'd say.
 

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As Andy asks, what is this "opportunity"?

If its a huge discount, you are likely to do best by running it until near warranty end and then selling, having low cost travel for 4 or 5 years on the grounds that the discount you are getting means quite a small difference between purchase price now and sales price then.
Then reevaluate at that point.
No need to tie yourself in for 15 years right now because if the deal is good it should equally work well buying now and selling in 5 years.
 

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Hello all

Looking for advice based on ye’er collective experience on whether the following scenario is even possible.



I have the once-off potential to invest in a pre-owned e-NV200. For this to work for my personal circumstances I will need to be able to keep this van on the road for 15 years (I’m not in the usual commercial van demographic). Am I being naive or is this possible?

Some basic info.

-The van I’m interested in is a 2015 model with 25,000 miles on it (not sure of battery health but will be finding that out)

-My commute would be a 40 mile round trip twice weekly with a max load of 150-200kg, with shorter (5 mile) school runs etc mixed in.

-I realise that a battery change/upgrade will be necessary, say in 5 years, to reach my fifteen year goal. Can I trust Nissan to be still supplying this battery (assuming newer batteries won’t be interchangeable) Is this a potential pitfall in my plan. I understand that there is the potential for aftermarket help for this but I’m going to assume it will be restricted to the UK and difficult for me to avail of from here in Ireland.



I have emailed Nissan sales here in Ireland who were understandably non committal in their reply.



Thanks in advance



Pat
What sort of money are you looking at spending, the reason I ask is I bought a 36mile old demonstrator van Tekna rapid+ and the total cost was £14k.....There are bargains out there which is the reason for my question......

As for range I am getting 65 winter and 75 summer and thats with a fully loaded van (poss overloaded) this includes having a roof rack
Longevity on the eNV is looking like it could be really good new, I read a Tweet from C&C Taxis a few days ago that their original eNV has done over 120'000 miles and still has all it battery bars.
 

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Nissan stopped making 24kWh packs last year. While they probaly kept a few for warranty spares, I strongly doubt there will be any available 6 years from now.

Nissan never made a 30kWh pack that fits the eNV-200. THe 30kWh LEAF pack won't fit in the van. So an official upgrade to 30 isn't possible.

THe latest van battery might fit. We don't know. Nissan aren't offering an upgrade.

I wouldn't plan on being able to keep it running. Even if you can it could be too expensive to be worthwhile.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Thanks again for replies, it is really helping to orientate my thinking.



“Opportunity”, “Gift horse”—— lets call it a surprise cash gift of €10k

Along with my own savings put aside for a replacement vehicle €4-5k

Obviously that 10k could be used in many ways but I’m going to flog this idea ’til I can’t anymore!





So that has me in the ball park, with a bit of prudent shopping, for a good quality 2-3 year old van (Accenta Rapid probably the most likely candidate) and installation of home charger.



So that excludes new models and warranties and therefore resale in 4-5 years will not really be an option. This €15k is a budget I would like to stick to no matter which way I decide to go, be it 2 successive cheap diesel vans with a lot of milage, a newer diesel with a a good pedigree and hopefully lower maintenance costs. But my heart/head would be pro EV. I feel over that timespan the EV would at least come in close in overall cost to the other options (options which I haven't really investigated fully yet)


As for range I am getting 65 winter and 75 summer and thats with a fully loaded van (poss overloaded) this includes having a roof rack
Longevity on the eNV is looking like it could be really good new, I read a Tweet from C&C Taxis a few days ago that their original eNV has done over 120'000 miles and still has all it battery bars.
Andy, those ranges and cumulative miles are a dream combo and would get me where I want to be both physically and metaphorically! Having said that I'm sure that 120,000 miles was over a short period. Would a battery react similarly if those 120,000 miles were over the course of 12-15 years?

Nissan stopped making 24kWh packs last year. While they probaly kept a few for warranty spares, I strongly doubt there will be any available 6 years from now.

Nissan never made a 30kWh pack that fits the eNV-200. THe 30kWh LEAF pack won't fit in the van. So an official upgrade to 30 isn't possible.

THe latest van battery might fit. We don't know. Nissan aren't offering an upgrade.

I wouldn't plan on being able to keep it running. Even if you can it could be too expensive to be worthwhile.
I understand the business model that keeps the batteries non-replaceable and that is what worries me now about the 24kWh battery. Waiting 3 years for a second hand version of the newer model would solve that issue, but I fear the depreciation won't be as steep (and from what I've read the starting price is quite a bit higher) as the present model as it will probably be a more proven tech by then.
 

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Andy, those ranges and cumulative miles are a dream combo and would get me where I want to be both physically and metaphorically! Having said that I'm sure that 120,000 miles was over a short period. Would a battery react similarly if those 120,000 miles were over the course of 12-15 years?
Don't forget the eNV has battery thermal management (which the LEAF doesn't have), it should out last the gen1.5 24kWh LEAF and they seem to be holding up pretty well.
 

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Being brutally honest, the ev tech is no where near settled for most people to be thinking that they will get 10years from one. In your situation the battery would be best charged to only 80% with maybe a monthly rapid and then allowed to settle off to 100%

My advice would be shelve your pounds and buy a cheap wee €1500 euro van, run it till the nct runs out and then see what work is needed for it to pass. If it's more than €300 euro stick it up on donedeal or eBay and take €1200 for it and buy another..
And keep going like that. For your low mileage bangernomics makes the most sense to any Irishman sure you see what the garda outside the town's and cities are like with stuff that clearly doesn't have an NCT anyway
 

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You need to reduce the cost of this down to pence per mile.

I can't say if your deal is a great one or not, but the figures you're suggesting aren't so far from market prices that you couldn't find another like that.

Anyhow, I don't know what you usually buy, like a euro5k van which will last 15 years? Good luck with that.

Personally I would not plan on anything more than 5 years. So maybe things trundle on after that, but even 5 years is a stretch for anyone. Budget this van, its running costs, and its resale value in 5 years time, then compare the same with the alternatives. If there is an alternative that is cheaper over the 5 year 'plan' then it'll be surely cheaper over your 15 years. If it is more expensive, then it will probably be more expensive beyond 5 years.

p/mile. That is all that counts.
 

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To be honest you are much better off waiting until you can afford a van with the current battery.

Our Leaf 30 is so much better than the 24. It charges faster. That plus the extra range makes the car far more usable. The 30 pack should last longe too.

I expect the 40 to be as a big a jump or even more.
 

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To be honest you are much better off waiting until you can afford a van with the current battery.

Our Leaf 30 is so much better than the 24. It charges faster. That plus the extra range makes the car far more usable. The 30 pack should last longe too.

I expect the 40 to be as a big a jump or even more.
I am not sure that the 30 pack is better than the 24 (for longevity)......I read a C&C Taxis tweet a few days ago where they actually think the 24 is better at lasting for a long time. For a 40 miles round trip IMO the 24 pack would have to be down at 60% before that became a problem and even the original Japanese 24's still haven't dropped that far yet in 7 years....
 

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To early to really know how the 30 will hold up in normal use. Nissan claim it will last longer. Ours is fine so far but we've only had the car 11 months / 10,000 miles.

It will be a shame if the 30 ends up degrading faster than the Sunderland built 24. 30s will have poor resale if the packs are down a bar.

I'd be very surpised if the 30s really do degrade faster but who knows. - Part of the reason why we have ours on PCP.
 
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