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Being unable to buy even a S/H premium EV due to cost, and already having a Zoe for second car duties, I happily bought my Volvo V60 PHEV, which as for many PHEV owners, acts as a luxury EV for a good 80% of the time - but the call of a true EV still lingers, but I'm beginning to think that at the rate current car prices are going up (just checked the new PHEV Crossland vauxhall - Top Spec, £46k!) I don't actually think that getting one on our pension will ever happen, even second-hand will take years to depreciate to an affordable level; so whats the general opinion on how long I'll be able to get diesel for my 20% ICE useage do we think ?!
 

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Circa 20 to 30 years Probably.
remember the ban on petrol and diesel vehicles is only for new vehicles, not existing ones.
 

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Given EVs have less than 5% market share, I think you could buy a brand new diesel today confident you could fuel it for its life.

After 15 or 20 years a lot hinges on how battery tech has progressed and on government action on CO2. Of course by that point you're likely to be changing the vehicle so can decide at the time.
 

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Given EVs have less than 5% market share, I think you could buy a brand new diesel today confident you could fuel it for its life.
It doesn't require 100% adoption of EVs for diesel provision to die off, or become economically unviable.

5-10% decrease in sales might be enough to remove any profit margin. So we'll see less and less diesel on sale - a bit like LPG today.
 

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In years to come people in Diesel's will have pump anxiety. They may need Plan B if the first fuel station doesn't have any. Maybe we will see an app "Dies-Map" ;)
 

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It doesn't require 100% adoption of EVs for diesel provision to die off, or become economically unviable.
But until commercial vehicles are mostly using other sources of power diesel will still be available. It's not just cars.
And then there's marine use, etc.
 

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But until commercial vehicles are mostly using other sources of power diesel will still be available. It's not just cars.
And then there's marine use, etc.
Yep, agreed. It might not be as cheap or as widely available as currently though. I foresee a lot of fuel stations closing up over the next decade.

Edit: forgot to add there will most likely be a collapse of refining at some point, as the refiners can no longer sell enough diesel to justify keeping the billion-pound refineries running. Then there really will be a shortage! I'm not expecting the for a couple of decades though...
 

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Edit: forgot to add there will most likely be a collapse of refining at some point, as the refiners can no longer sell enough diesel to justify keeping the billion-pound refineries running. Then there really will be a shortage! I'm not expecting the for a couple of decades though...
That's not really an issue. UK refineries are commercially iffy anyway - it would probably be cheaper to import refined products, but being dependent on others is a security issue. And commercial aviation would likely keep at least one refinery going.

It's a mistake to look only at car fuel - it's only a part of the global oil industry.
 

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Manufacturers are dropping diesels like hot potatoes. I'd think in a couple of years the choice of new models will be far more restricted than now. This has a knock on effect of second hand availability going forward.

I think someone looking for a year old diesel in 3 or 4 year's time will find there's next to sod all choice. I'd imagine it be the preserve of SUVs/Tow cars only. Towing is the main area EVs aren't much cop at.
 

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Towing is the main area EVs aren't much cop at.
But soon caravan manufacturers will cotton on to the concept of adding a 20kWh battery pack and axle motor to the caravan. It would not need a control from the car, merely a system that senses and tries to (almost) neutralise fore/aft force through the tow bar (ie applies a boost so that the caravan doesn't drag heavily on the car during acceleration, and applies a regen so the caravan doesn't push on/jacknife the car during deceleration). This would also allow the caravan to be maneuvered into spots without the tow vehicle attached, as well as provide a power supply for off-grid camping.
 

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I can still buy house coal, even anthracite if I was still inclined which I'm not, but getting harder.

Old technologies tend to linger on....
 

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What an EV bubble!

Diesel will be around for many years to come. Most people are only now starting to take EVs seriously and thinking they could possibly have one next time, but then the reality hits when they have to change and most go for an ice.
I've spoken to a few friends who are interested in an EV but when they actually change cars they still get an ice.
For most people getting a new car the cost savings alone aren't enough to make the switch, needing to charge on trips is still too much of an inconvenience. For the used market we are many years off there being enough EVs to make diesel a very small share in the market.

I had a 300 mile round trip for work with a colleague last week and we took my Niro. He knew upfront that we would need to charge for 20 mins on the way home but we were later than planned leaving meaning we would be late home anyway and the extra 20 minute stop was an extra to add to that.

We have to make the same trip next week and he's talking about going in the bosses diesel!
Maybe if the Mitton Keynes hub was at an MSA it might have been more acceptable but the choice of food wasn't great for the hungry colleague nor did the strange route Waze took us to the chargers.
He's not an EV fan anyway, but most people don't see the point in buying a car that needs extra stops added when normal cars can do that easily.
 

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Circa 20 to 30 years Probably.
remember the ban on petrol and diesel vehicles is only for new vehicles, not existing ones.
the 'ban' is a lot of fuss about nothing, important to note they only banning most basic ICE engines. Its anticipated those still on sale at the time will simply be replaced with very mild hybrids which basically just means combining the alternator and starter motor to come up with something akin to posh stop/start technology that allows the car to occasionally coast downhills without using any fuel and then start the engine up again going up the other side, so a lot of new cars will still require a lot of fuel.
 

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To ditch diesel every van and lorry, bus, train, tractor and other farm vehicle, construction vehicle, boat etc would have to be replaced with an EV. Given that we don't currently have EV models of most of this equipment the transition away from diesel will be long. Cars will probably go first, but diesel will still be around.
 

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Its anticipated those still on sale at the time will simply be replaced with very mild hybrids
Highly unlikely. The "road to zero" demands a lot more and even PHEVs (if allowed) may need to have substantial EV range. We don't know for sure, but hopefully be clearer within the next 12 months.

I don't think anyone here is saying diesel will disappear, just that eventually it might get harder to find. Once most utilised cars are BEVs the demand will reduce. I expect from 2030 we will see a large number of fossil fuel stations converted into EV only.

 

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Of course there is a tipping point for HGVs as they are very much driven by cost. When this will be is of course anyone's guess.
 

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Of course there is a tipping point for HGVs as they are very much driven by cost. When this will be is of course anyone's guess.
Good point. A quick google shows that (in 2014) there were around 120k arctic tractor units (i.e. to pull a trailer) on the UK roads. How many of those will be replaced by Tesla semis (or equivalent) in the next decade or two.

 
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