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How much will sea levels rise by 2050, from now, at the current rate?

  • 0

    Votes: 5 11.4%
  • 10cm

    Votes: 16 36.4%
  • 30cm

    Votes: 7 15.9%
  • 1m

    Votes: 7 15.9%
  • 2m

    Votes: 5 11.4%
  • More than 2m

    Votes: 4 9.1%
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Saw the answer to this and thought it was interesting.

No cheating, just see how close you get.

The current rate of increase is here:


Obviously there's a million factors, the rate may change, tipping points may be crossed, the effect will be non-uniform and felt differently etc etc etc
 

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Good question, but there's no need to guess, just check your town here....

Climate Central | Land projected to be below annual flood level in 2050
Hmm, some of that is a bit alarmist. I have family on the peninsula south of Chichester, and haven't noticed a significant sustained rise at the beach since my earliest memories in the 1970s, yet the map says almost the whole peninsula up to Chichester will be underwater in just 9 years' time (I set it to 2030), including where I took this photo from (Oct 2019):

142798
 

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Hmm, some of that is a bit alarmist. I have family on the peninsula south of Chichester, and haven't noticed a significant sustained rise at the beach since my earliest memories in the 1970s, yet the map says almost the whole peninsula up to Chichester will be underwater in just 9 years' time (I set it to 2030), including where I took this photo from (Oct 2019):
That map is for flood - meaning the extreme case, probably highest spring tide combined with a storm surge. Doesn't mean those areas will be underwater, just risk of flooding.

Also, what is the land level behind that picture?
A lot of those shingle beaches on the coast are backed by a sea wall with a substantial fall behind that.
 

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That map is for flood - meaning the extreme case, probably highest spring tide combined with a storm surge. Doesn't mean those areas will be underwater, just risk of flooding.
Yes, that was my take-away from the map. The portion of the increase due to mean sea level rise isn't that big, but in some low-lying areas that can have a big knock-on effect on flooding where only a small rise is needed to cover a lot of area. If I was looking at a long-term move (say for retirement) today then I'd be taking this map into account if I wanted to move to a costal area.
 

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That's just reality - more money is spent on flood defences for areas that are "worth more" so the south east's inflated house prices get inflated flood protection. Pretty much the same as usual for the UK then...
Well, Mablethorpe and the Lincolnshire coastline are definitely not high worth property areas yet they are being defended...

 

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Well, Mablethorpe and the Lincolnshire coastline are definitely not high worth property areas yet they are being defended...

Yes, the quote mentions 20,000 houses so that's a lot of property being defended. There are plenty of smaller places on the east coast, near Scarborough and further south that are not being defended.
 

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I think the main issue is how easily the properties can be defended. the Lincolnshire coast is low and flat so defences can be easily (relatively) completed. The issues come when cliffs are being eroded away and that is a centuries old issue - it is impossible to defend a cliff that is eroding.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Hmm,

One of these is 2050, one of these is 2030. Guess which is which?

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Hmm, some of that is a bit alarmist. I have family on the peninsula south of Chichester, and haven't noticed a significant sustained rise at the beach since my earliest memories in the 1970s, yet the map says almost the whole peninsula up to Chichester will be underwater in just 9 years' time (I set it to 2030), including where I took this photo from (Oct 2019):

View attachment 142798
 

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Hmm,

One of these is 2050, one of these is 2030. Guess which is which
Yes, when looking earlier at the South Coast I thought there was a bug and the maps were the same. But when I zoomed in to a detail area and changed the dates there were some very slight changes.

I guess there is a lot of flat land that is only just above sea level being fairly new deposits by river, sea or reclamation but which is then bordered by older and more substantial land that rises inland. That rise only needs to be a couple of feet to clear the risk.
 

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If I was looking at a long-term move (say for retirement) today then I'd be taking this map into account if I wanted to move to a costal area.
There is an Environment Agency flood risk map for the UK which covers rivers and stuff. I used that to check before we moved where we are now as there is a (currently) small stream nearby.
My saved link is broken but it seems to have moved here:
Check the long term flood risk for an area in England

It covers:
rivers and the sea
surface water
reservoirs
some groundwater
 

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There is an Environment Agency flood risk map for the UK which covers rivers and stuff. I used that to check before we moved where we are now as there is a (currently) small stream nearby.
My saved link is broken but it seems to have moved here:
Check the long term flood risk for an area in England

It covers:
rivers and the sea
surface water
reservoirs
some groundwater
I used the same site when choosing our current business premises as the River Derwent in Derby has a reputation for flooding both in the city centre and adjacent industrial estates. We are alledgedly in a low risk area, yet have had 2 bad floods and 1 high enough to fear the worst in the last 4 years.
Obviously, the EA cannot predict the actual raifall when doing their modelling, but it seems apparent that they have erred on the optimistic side rather than cautious if my experiences are anything to go by.
The 2nd big flood we had was even after they had installed major flood defences after the first. Oh well, it's only peoples livelihoods.
 

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Pretty steady rise in sea levels since the end of the minor glaciation in the 18th century.

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Or, maybe, those darned Victorians, all out in their coal powered steam cars should have been converting to EVs?

What's the sea level rise in this interglacial period got to do with 'general EV discussion'? Make the link for me, help me out here, or move the thread to 'off topic' where I won't contribute.

FWIW, at the end of the last major glaciation, ~8000 years ago, the sea level rise was over 10mm a year;
142828
 

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Don't worry, Europe will be fine once the current ice age ends and all the glaciers melt. I mean .. no more GB, eh!?!? ;)

142829
 

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Also, what is the land level behind that picture?
A lot of those shingle beaches on the coast are backed by a sea wall with a substantial fall behind that.
I took the photo below on the same day, about 50 minutes earlier. There is an old concrete wall buried under the shingle. The area had severe flooding in 2012, but that was due to insufficient rainwater drainage rather than sea level. Yes, there are challenges relating to the sea and erosion, with the low-lying areas east of this shot continually under pressure with schemes like Medmerry put in to mitigate, and the seafront properties can take a beating in severe storms, but I'm not expecting the coast in this photo to be substantially more underwater in nine years' time than it is now.

I do hope this post doesn't come back to bite me…

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