[Marli]

How fast could and would the manufacter era react.

The question prob needs discussing as well, how quickly could such a law be instigated, legally without out being sued?
I've left the question vague, but I mean sale not use.
Could we just initially ban the import, then production. Then eventully sale?
Whats the quickest viable timescale?

What does non-hybrid Actully mean?

 

[donald]

For volume production I would say;
If the supply chain exists and is not fundamentally resource-limited then 5 to 10 years.

If not, and the supply chain has to be developed, 10 to 30 years, depending on the manufacturing technology required.

You can halve those figures for niche applications.

Specific to your question, what do you regard as a 'hybrid' which would satisfy this new requirement? If it is a case of putting in one kWh of 48V power, for example, and that makes it a 'hybrid' and free of this restriction, then it could be done in a year or two ... and indeed this is exactly what has happened in some cases.

 

[WithEthyl]

It's never going to happen, the effects are far too extreme.

Manufacturers car output would collapse, the number of available vehicles both in models and number available would plummet. There would be shortages of new cars. Manufacturers would experience a severe drop in revenues, the supply chain would be badly hit, some companies would fail.

Any transition needs to be at a realistic timescale of several years, at a minimum, to allow manufacturers and supply chain to adapt.

 

[srichards]

How fast would manufacturers change if buyers stopped buying non-hybrids? That's the more interesting question. Legislative response seems to take them longer and cause more bother than buyers deciding en masse they want something else.

The petrol/diesel mix has changed substantially over the last 3 years. If buyers suddenly ignore all the non hybrid models...

 

[markweatherill]

What does non-hybrid Actully mean?

Well, it means BEVs, for one.

 

[Todor]

Not to be pedantic, but a petrol car is "non-hybrid"..

 

[Vertigo]

Over 10 years to set up high-volume material acquisition, ~4 years to set up manufacturing infrastructure, ~5 years to develop the vehicles. All of that assumes that costs are affordable enough to prevent major delays, though. In reality a lot of it would be dictated by cashflow.

 

[Orrery]

The bottom line here is that banning these vehicles by any date is just the wrong thing to do, unless we can be absolutely sure that there isn't a need for them.

We should have a progressive, and widely advertised policy, of increasing taxation on ICE vehicles and using the funds to lower taxation on BEVs. People are very good at voting with their feet - when BEVs are economically attractive people will move over very quickly. But this assumes that there are plenty of cheaper 2nd hand BEVs for those people at that end of the market.

I can't say with any confidence that there won't be applications that require ICE well into the future and a rapid switchover would cause all sorts of problems - we know the grid has said that they can cope, but they'll need to do a lot of work to make that a reality.

 

[Flying Dodo]

We should have a progressive, and widely advertised policy, of increasing taxation on ICE vehicles and using the funds to lower taxation on BEVs. People are very good at voting with their feet - when BEVs are economically attractive people will move over very quickly. But this assumes that there are plenty of cheaper 2nd hand BEVs for those people at that end of the market.

Bearing in mind that successive Governments have cancelled the fuel duty escalator for 10 years, sadly, they're just not going to alter the rate of tax. And that's despite petrol being cheaper now in real terms than it was in the 1970's.

 

[BornAgainEcoWarrior]

I think hybrid would need some definition.
The way the industry is headed you can reclassify any ice car as a self charging Hybrid. As long as it has a battery, an alternator, and a starter motor it’s a self charging hybrid. It charges itself and if you put in gear it’s capable of driving 5metres on full electricity- and hey presto it’s a self charging hybrid.

 

[Marli]

To clarify I mean "electrified".

Over 10 years to set up high-volume material acquisition, ~4 years to set up manufacturing infrastructure, ~5 years to develop the vehicles. All of that assumes that costs are affordable enough to prevent major delays, though. In reality a lot of it would be dictated by cashflow.

I think most manufacters have a hybrid tech in development and/or the groundwork for a purchase agreement with the likes off Toyota.
The question is how fast could they bodge such a solution into production.

I think BMW and Toyota wouldn't blink.