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Discussion Starter #1
We have just returned from our annual holiday to Lake Guarda in Northern Italy, a trip of about 2500 miles including driving whilst there. We always go in our Transporter as being a family of Celiacs we bring home a years supply of pasta etc so need a the space.

In the 7 years we have driven, we have never seen an EV, not one! until this year.
In England both ends of the trip where too dark so don't know what we passed.
In France, Switzerland and Italy however we spotted…….
1 Zoe
1 Tesla Roadster
2 Amperas
5 Model S's
and 11 Outlanders.

IMO Tesla and Mitsubishi seem to have got the pricing and products that we want. When will others follow suit and give us cars that compete with an ICE on a like for like basis?
If the Outlander in particular continues to sell as it has in the last few months I think that the mistic tipping point might actually be in sight:)
 

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Audi A3 e-Tron plug-in hybrid should be out soon. I'm sure those will sell.

The eGolf goes on sale soon and the Mercedes comes to the UK early next year.

Were all the outlanders you spotted PHEVs??? Mitsubishi has been selling the non-ev version for years. There are a few on Anglesey.
 

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I think that as convincing models in every category (small/compact/familly sedan/executive/hatchback/MPV/SUV etc...) become available at a competitive price to the ICE version, then the movement will accelerate.

I think it's going to be like the adoption of diesel alongside petrol engines in cars. At first it was seen to be sensible only to hypermilers and taxis. As the technology improved and the price premium got smaller, it spread to more and more models. Diesel is now very widespread in every segment save for super-cars.
 

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IMO we are no where near any kind of tipping point yet. EVs and PHEVs are certainly becoming more popular and more common but it is still such a small percentage of total car sales that it is still almost insignificant in the scale of things overall.

The tipping point is still a long way off IMO but I am still convinced it will happen... just more slowly than most people expect.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Audi A3 e-Tron plug-in hybrid should be out soon. I'm sure those will sell.

The eGolf goes on sale soon and the Mercedes comes to the UK early next year.

Were all the outlanders you spotted PHEVs??? Mitsubishi has been selling the non-ev version for years. There are a few on Anglesey.
VW Audi too expencive when compaired with their ICE brothers.

Yep every one an EV, the big EV on the front wings is easy to spot even at an combined speed of 170 MPH, if I could not spot it I didnt count it so you could say at least 11, and over half of them I saw in towns or parked up.
 

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Discussion Starter #6 (Edited)
IMO we are no where near any kind of tipping point yet. EVs and PHEVs are certainly becoming more popular and more common but it is still such a small percentage of total car sales that it is still almost insignificant in the scale of things overall.

The tipping point is still a long way off IMO but I am still convinced it will happen... just more slowly than most people expect.
I am not thinking that it will be here tomorrow, but in 1 year to go from 0 to 20 to me means that there is a very small dot on the horizon that was not there last year.
 

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IMO we are no where near any kind of tipping point yet. EVs and PHEVs are certainly becoming more popular and more common but it is still such a small percentage of total car sales that it is still almost insignificant in the scale of things overall.

The tipping point is still a long way off IMO but I am still convinced it will happen... just more slowly than most people expect.
If you take tipping point as point of no return then I think we are there. With just Nissan in the game a few years back it wasn't the case, but there's enough different models in enough peoples hands that the demand is growing and unstoppable.
 

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I don't agree... I think that there is still a real and genuine chance that EVs may not break through and if they do then it will be a quite a long time in coming.

IMO it depends on when the battery and charging technology gets developed to allow manufacturers to deliver the real-world range and speed of charging that the public want at a price they are prepared to pay. At the moment the technology is not there. It is currently fine for us early adopters but not there yet for the general public IMO. When it is, and manufacturers launch cars with that tech and the charging is in place, then and only then do I see EVs picking up serious traction in the market. That is a very long way off and until then I see EVs selling in dribs and drabs albiet increasing numbers.

I could see PHEVs becoming quite popular though.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I could see PHEVs becoming quite popular though.
I have to say I take anything with a plug as an EV and therefore the Outlander is the car that IMO is making the most progress towards changing peoples opinions.
Mitsibushi have got the price correct and given the choice, for most peoples driving requirement why would they pay the same money for a diesel when the EV is cheaper and better to drive.

The most important thing is its a car first and an EV second.
 

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It is important IMO that we do distinguish between BEVs and PHEVs so people actually understand the differences.

Mitsibushi have got the price correct and given the choice, for most peoples driving requirement why would they pay the same money for a diesel when the EV is cheaper and better to drive.
If they did few short trips and used the car mostly for long trips then I could imagine that the diesel version might be more economical. I haven't done the maths but without the use of the battery then the mpg is not so good.

PHEVs and EVs are not suitable for everyone just yet.
 

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VW Audi too expencive when compaired with their ICE brothers.

Hmmm. The Outlander PHEV is £28,250 to about £35,000 after the PICG. I need to drive one, but I have sat in one. Looked as overpriced as any EV to me.


Maybe it is the same price as the diesel but the price range is well above Zoe, Leaf, eNV200, and Kangoo Z.E. The Outlander is more expensive than an eGolf. About the only EV out there that matches it for price is the i3.

I haven't heard anything about pricing on the A3 e-tron. Do you have source?
 

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I think EVs may "tip" quicker than your average technology, there's a lot of very good reasons to go plugin. Personally I very much count PHEVs and EREVS as part of the mix, I'd rather folk could take the leap straight in to BEVs, but it's all good progress.
 

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I don't agree... I think that there is still a real and genuine chance that EVs may not break through and if they do then it will be a quite a long time in coming.

IMO it depends on when the battery and charging technology gets developed to allow manufacturers to deliver the real-world range and speed of charging that the public want at a price they are prepared to pay. At the moment the technology is not there. It is currently fine for us early adopters but not there yet for the general public IMO. When it is, and manufacturers launch cars with that tech and the charging is in place, then and only then do I see EVs picking up serious traction in the market. That is a very long way off and until then I see EVs selling in dribs and drabs albiet increasing numbers.

I could see PHEVs becoming quite popular though.
The good thing about phevs is that they give people a taste of EV, and get them to realise how many miles they actually do. There will be a large number of i3 Rex buyers who in 3 years time don't bother with the Rex. There will also be some who have never used a full charge + full tank, and realise they can opt for a 200 mile car, and some who found the CCS network good enough by the end of the three years and their use of it so infrequent that although they want to do 200 mile + trips they are fine with a 100 mile battery.
 
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But the very best thing about PHEVs is that you never have to worry about where to charge or hang around service areas waiting. You just drive and that is what people want... a car you just drive and don't have to plan like an Everest expedition every time you want to drive over 100 miles!

Don't misunderstand me though... IMO 100% electric cars will still sell but in smaller numbers until the BEV experience is more like the PHEV experience.
 

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Yeah, and for some people a gen 1 leaf is fine (my friend and neighbour has only used a rapid charger once, to get the car home. He just doesn't need to go further than 60 miles), for some people 150 miles will be the sweet spot and for some it's 400 miles. They can make that choice when buying and a PHEV helps them make that choice.

In a way the 400 mile EV will make things easier to understand. 400 miles is about 100kwh, £10-£12ish at home, versus a petrol/diesel car where that might be anything from £30 for a 70mpg supermini to £100 for a large engined car.

Also, I don't personally see PHEV sales being higher than BEV once the Model 3 is on sale, I am convinced it will be a massive hit.
 

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PHEV will be the next big thing, if only for emission control. It will ease more people into BEV, as will Model 3, but unless there are dramatic chances in infrastructure and legislation, I can't see a tipping point coming for at least another 15 years.
 

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Also, I don't personally see PHEV sales being higher than BEV once the Model 3 is on sale, I am convinced it will be a massive hit.
Depends what you mean by "massive".

I too think the gen 3 Tesla will be quite popular as far as BEVs go but it will be far, far too expensive for most people if it comes in at the £35k that has been touted. £25k might do the trick but IMO even that is probably too much. Not everyone can afford that kind of money on a car or wants to spend it.

I am sure it will become one of the more popular BEVs but it will still be very much a niche market IMO.
 

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racfoundation.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/number-of-vehicles-in-uk-hits-new-high/

28.7 million cars on UK roads at the end of 2012.

Are we up to 10,000 ev's yet? 0.01 of a million!

Does give a sense of quite how far we have to go and the sheer number of batteries etc needed if we all want to keep our cars.

No wonder Elon is building a giga factory....
 

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Also imagine 28 million ev's needing regular access to half hour rapid chargers....and managing the provision so there is not impossible contention.

Does make me feel the range of bev's will need to be a lot larger and the charging much quicker before bev's become possible for the mainstream with our current lifestyle and choices.
 

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As Elon Musk said, even if all cars produced now were electric, it would take 20 years to "electrify the fleet".

Have to consider used cars too, once the new cars have improved and people move on to those, the used fleet is ever more attractive. It's not like people seeing a new model or a new variation, people are seeing a new technology, you can't calculate it in the same way as a new version of a current tech. Like when smart phones suddenly took off, eople were still buying phones, but they were ditching the old tech pretty quick when they saw the perceived benefits of the new. I think it will go faster than some are predicting.

Yes it will take several years, but it will grow at a good rate I'm sure.

One of the main problems now is hardly anyone will try to sell you an EV (person or company) you have to go out of your way to pick one. That's got to change.
 
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