[Paul_Moxhay]

IMO we are no where near any kind of tipping point yet. EVs and PHEVs are certainly becoming more popular and more common but it is still such a small percentage of total car sales that it is still almost insignificant in the scale of things overall.

The tipping point is still a long way off IMO but I am still convinced it will happen... just more slowly than most people expect.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

I don't agree... I think that there is still a real and genuine chance that EVs may not break through and if they do then it will be a quite a long time in coming.

IMO it depends on when the battery and charging technology gets developed to allow manufacturers to deliver the real-world range and speed of charging that the public want at a price they are prepared to pay. At the moment the technology is not there. It is currently fine for us early adopters but not there yet for the general public IMO. When it is, and manufacturers launch cars with that tech and the charging is in place, then and only then do I see EVs picking up serious traction in the market. That is a very long way off and until then I see EVs selling in dribs and drabs albiet increasing numbers.

I could see PHEVs becoming quite popular though.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

It is important IMO that we do distinguish between BEVs and PHEVs so people actually understand the differences.

Mitsibushi have got the price correct and given the choice, for most peoples driving requirement why would they pay the same money for a diesel when the EV is cheaper and better to drive.

If they did few short trips and used the car mostly for long trips then I could imagine that the diesel version might be more economical. I haven't done the maths but without the use of the battery then the mpg is not so good.

PHEVs and EVs are not suitable for everyone just yet.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

But the very best thing about PHEVs is that you never have to worry about where to charge or hang around service areas waiting. You just drive and that is what people want... a car you just drive and don't have to plan like an Everest expedition every time you want to drive over 100 miles!

Don't misunderstand me though... IMO 100% electric cars will still sell but in smaller numbers until the BEV experience is more like the PHEV experience.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Also, I don't personally see PHEV sales being higher than BEV once the Model 3 is on sale, I am convinced it will be a massive hit.

Depends what you mean by "massive".

I too think the gen 3 Tesla will be quite popular as far as BEVs go but it will be far, far too expensive for most people if it comes in at the £35k that has been touted. £25k might do the trick but IMO even that is probably too much. Not everyone can afford that kind of money on a car or wants to spend it.

I am sure it will become one of the more popular BEVs but it will still be very much a niche market IMO.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

By "average" I assume you mean taking the models and their prices. If you take the average price paid by cars sold then I am pretty sure it won't be anything like as high as £27k.

IMO I think we should all be very careful at quoting stats. Unless you clearly explain what you mean by the stat it is pretty much useless and can be highly misleading.

I know there are loads of cars sold at higher prices but I am considering what the average Joe Public is likely to spend and that is way below £35k IMO. If you think that most people would be able to afford or willing to spend in the BMW 3 series price bracket then I think that you should get out and talk to more people out there that are not already EV converts. People generally spend a lot less on cars that we EV early adopters do.

In fact, I would guess that the majority wouldn't buy new anyway.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

As I thought... the "average" you speak of is not taking into account numbers sold... just the models available. That figure is pretty meaningless in this discussion IMO as it does not reflect the number sold.

Yes, the fleet market will make a huge difference as the majority of new cars purchased are fleet cars.

The interesting part is that no one knows which way it will go and it will be interesting to see how things develop.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Just to be clear... I certainly didn't "mock" @PaulMorris. I simply said he was an early adopter and disagreed with his assessment of what constituted one. I don't mock people.

I stand by my comment to him though... we, all current EV and PHEV owners, are early adopters IMO. Even by Paul's definition we are. We are still very early in the rollout of both EVs and PHEVs. Charging infrastructure is still developing and even changing with no clear definitive charging standards yet. Charging speeds are still slow even at rapid charger speeds and battery energy density is still low with short range when compared to what will be needed in the future to see better market penetration.

So I stick to my statement... IMO everyone that has an EV or PHEV today are all early adopters... the market penetration of EVs/PHEVs is still so small that it is almost insignificant but I do agree... its rate of growth is pretty high.

How can you consider yourself part of an early majority when EVs/PHEVs are such a small percentage of cars sold? You say Paul that "it does feel like" you are an early adopter... fair enough but the figures of those actually buying doesn't back up up. It is easy for people to say they would have one... quite another for them to actually buy.

IMO you are typical of most early adopters... they talk up their decision and fail to recognise that they are quite different from most of the population. We are very different and we would do well not to assume that the general public look at things the way we do. Clearly they don't ... yet!

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

@Flaninacupboard I believe that curve is hopelessly optimistic. IMO that speed of take up will not happen. We are still in the early adopter stage. At some point sales will start to flatten out until there is a sea-change in range/charging time/price... then it may even be steeper than that graph suggests.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

if sales are doubling every year then the growth is (almost) quadratic, it really is going to accelerate fast.
That's the point it is inevitable now.

The key word there is "if"... if the continue to double. IMO that curve is just fantasy and although the growth if good right now it is still in the the early adopter phase. IMO it will flatten out considerably.

Inevitable? I wish I could be that certain. I hope it is inevitable but there is a very long way to go before I would be happy to use that word

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

I don't think it is impossible either... I just believe it will happen in anything like the time-scales that many here are suggesting... that is all.

It is just my opinion... nothing more. Yours and other opinions are equally valid IMO

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Just to be clear... I didn't say EVs were only for early adopters... they are for everyone where an EV suits their lifestyle and car use and where they can afford one.

However, right now, in this very early stage of take up, if you buy an EV then you are by definition an early adopter.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

... according to you, in your opinion etc.

Yes, according to me... everything I write here is according to me unless I state otherwise.

However, I have tried to see it your way and I keep coming back to the unavoidable fact that it is so early in the take up of EVs and there are so few of them around right now that I can see it no other way than to accept that all EV owners today must be early adopters.

By "early adopter" I mean someone that would buy an EV in spite of their known problems and disadvantages and in spite of it being an undeveloped technology thereby meaning that they are buying with a high degree of uncertainty of where it might lead. Once there are enough EVs on the road for people to see that the bulk of the issues are mostly resolved, and the risk is reduced, so people would then, IMO, not be early adopters.

Just because it works for you 100% without compromise does not make it mainstream in my opinion and you would still be an early adopter in my eyes.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Love that curve... makes a lot of sense given my experiences.

I would say we are still in the Technology Trigger but nearing the top. I would say that a lot of the early adopters have now bought but there are still a few still to come with PHEV vehicles. Supplier proliferation is just starting with many manufacturers now launching one or more plug-in vehicles, there is still a lot of EV-related products yet to hit the market. Supplier consolidation is yet to start.