[Julian Thomas]

I went into dealerships to look at EVs - 2 years ago for me, and 3 months ago for partner. The experience was:

Vauxhall - very little interest in selling us an Ampera (from 3 different dealers) - they all had one, but it was "over there", and that was about the level of interest
BMW - BRILLIANT... the dealership in MK had an "i man", who knew everything about the car, and was really excited about it
Mercedes (electric Smart) - treated it like a gimmick, no real interest in selling it
Renault - pretty good, we got to druve a Zoe (and hated it)

I'm dying to get my hands on the A3 e-tron...

 

[andrew*debbie]

BMW gave us the best dealer experience by far. Nevertheless we are driving a LEAF . . .

We had an invitation to an Audi hosted A3 e-tron launch event but it was far away.

Have you tried the VWs? Our local dealer won't have the EVs for a few more months, but I'd think there would be some in Milton Keynes.

When the B Class E-Cell shows up, I'd think the Mercedes dealers will stop treating EVs like a gimmick.


Tipping point? I predict EVs and PHEVs will account for over 1% of new car sales by the end of 2015.

 

[Edd Beesley]

Depends what you mean by "massive".

I too think the gen 3 Tesla will be quite popular as far as BEVs go but it will be far, far too expensive for most people if it comes in at the £35k that has been touted. £25k might do the trick but IMO even that is probably too much. Not everyone can afford that kind of money on a car or wants to spend it.

I am sure it will become one of the more popular BEVs but it will still be very much a niche market IMO.

By massive I mean that the 500k per year they want to sell is achieved. As far as I know the most popular phev so far is the Volt/Ampera, with about 77,000 global sales according to wiki, roughly 25k per year.

"Far too expensive for most people" is a bit of a stretch, I think. I couldn't find a newer number, but the average car price in the UK for 2012 was £27,219. Given the running costs, expected maintenance and emissions related benefits it's a better value proposition than a diesel car at £35k. There will be hundreds of thousands of cars sold this year for £35k+ in the UK, it's easy to believe that 20-30k could be Model 3's in a few years time, right in 3 series territory.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

By "average" I assume you mean taking the models and their prices. If you take the average price paid by cars sold then I am pretty sure it won't be anything like as high as £27k.

IMO I think we should all be very careful at quoting stats. Unless you clearly explain what you mean by the stat it is pretty much useless and can be highly misleading.

I know there are loads of cars sold at higher prices but I am considering what the average Joe Public is likely to spend and that is way below £35k IMO. If you think that most people would be able to afford or willing to spend in the BMW 3 series price bracket then I think that you should get out and talk to more people out there that are not already EV converts. People generally spend a lot less on cars that we EV early adopters do.

In fact, I would guess that the majority wouldn't buy new anyway.

 

[Edd Beesley]

By "average" I assume you mean taking the models and their prices. If you take the average price paid by cars sold then I am pretty sure it won't be anything like as high as £27k.

IMO I think we should all be very careful at quoting stats. Unless you clearly explain what you mean by the stat it is pretty much useless and can be highly misleading.

I know there are loads of cars sold at higher prices but I am considering what the average Joe Public is likely to spend and that is way below £35k IMO. If you think that most people would be able to afford or willing to spend in the BMW 3 series price bracket then I think that you should get out and talk to more people out there that are not already EV converts. People generally spend a lot less on cars that we EV early adopters do.

In fact, I would guess that the majority wouldn't buy new anyway.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-2408807/New-car-prices-risen-inflation-25-years.html

That's where the £27k number came from.

When you look at new car sales there's a very obvious pooling, private buyers buy tens of thousands of Corsas, Fiestas, Focus's and Astras every year. Fleet buyers buy tens of thousands of 3 Series, A4's, and C-Classes. I fully aprreciate the costs are not low enough for the Corsa and Fiesta market yet, but for the fleet market the costs are fine.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

As I thought... the "average" you speak of is not taking into account numbers sold... just the models available. That figure is pretty meaningless in this discussion IMO as it does not reflect the number sold.

Yes, the fleet market will make a huge difference as the majority of new cars purchased are fleet cars.

The interesting part is that no one knows which way it will go and it will be interesting to see how things develop.

 

[PaulMorris]

I'm going to build a fence here and sit on it..

I don't think the point has tipped, but argue we are tipping as we speak. The tipping action itself might be slow and protracted, and might even lose momentum occasionally - but something is definitely changing in the air. @Paul_Churchley recently mocked me for declaring myself not to be an early adopter. I only took to an EV this June. The thing is I genuinely don't consider myself an early adopter. I was an entirely rational adopter that had been watching for some time until it 'made sense', a pragmatist waiting for my personal tipping point.

The definition I use for early adopter doesn't relate to pure market penetration rates, but one of propensity to buy and motivation. Early adopters will go through inconvenience, pain, lack of utility, bugs, teething issues just to own that technology early, to be right there at the start, part of the innovation process, an electronaut as BMW would call them. The motivation might be environmental, technological, emotional - but it is rarely purely rational.

Those of you that have been owning EVs for three years or even more - building/converting your own, driving quadracyles, jumping into gen 1 LEAFs at significant cost when they were unproven, lack of charging infrastructure etc. Those were the early adopters on the bleeding edge.

The way the market is today with mainstream marques mass producing high quality cars, millions invested in infrastructure - I definitely think we're in different times. Since June two colleagues at work whom I've never discussed EVs with have ordered. One of those didn't even get the advocacy pitch from me! I gave him a lift to a business meeting back in July - he then quietly handed back his cash alternative and went off and ordered a PHEV on the company scheme. For some, EV ownership is becoming a no-brainer - that isn't early adoption territory IMHO.

For myself, I consider myself one of the early majority. A pragmatist that's jumped earlier than the conservative majority. For anyone that knows "Crossing the Chasm", yes you could argue my definition of early adopters are innovators, and I/we are early adopters but it doesn't feel like that in the social groups I move in. The more perceptive individuals in the herd have taken notice and are coming over to join.

 

[Paul_Moxhay]

Just to be clear... I certainly didn't "mock" @PaulMorris. I simply said he was an early adopter and disagreed with his assessment of what constituted one. I don't mock people.

I stand by my comment to him though... we, all current EV and PHEV owners, are early adopters IMO. Even by Paul's definition we are. We are still very early in the rollout of both EVs and PHEVs. Charging infrastructure is still developing and even changing with no clear definitive charging standards yet. Charging speeds are still slow even at rapid charger speeds and battery energy density is still low with short range when compared to what will be needed in the future to see better market penetration.

So I stick to my statement... IMO everyone that has an EV or PHEV today are all early adopters... the market penetration of EVs/PHEVs is still so small that it is almost insignificant but I do agree... its rate of growth is pretty high.

How can you consider yourself part of an early majority when EVs/PHEVs are such a small percentage of cars sold? You say Paul that "it does feel like" you are an early adopter... fair enough but the figures of those actually buying doesn't back up up. It is easy for people to say they would have one... quite another for them to actually buy.

IMO you are typical of most early adopters... they talk up their decision and fail to recognise that they are quite different from most of the population. We are very different and we would do well not to assume that the general public look at things the way we do. Clearly they don't ... yet!

 

[PaulMorris]

How can you consider yourself part of an early majority when EVs/PHEVs are such a small percentage of cars sold? You say Paul that "it does feel like" you are an early adopter... fair enough but the figures of those actually buying doesn't back up up. It is easy for people to say they would have one... quite another for them to actually buy.

That's an interesting point. I think part of the problem is perception that EVs currently only provide a good fit to a market niche - though that is changing. With that in mind comparing % of cars sold could be flawed. Just as large mega-corporations like Proctor & Gamble fill the supermarket shelves with so many product variants just to take market share, EVs are in a similar place. A small number of vehicles in a very crowded market - even if people chose vehicles at random EVs would still of course be a tiny minority.

More interesting I think would be to watch Mitsubishi closely with the Outlander, as they have (pretty much) achieved price parity. If you reframe the scenario to take any EV bias out it then becomes: having decided to buy a new Outlander, which one do people buy?

Could be an interesting barometer of where public opinion really is on Rogers' bell curve:
<2.5% = Innovators
<16% = Early Adopters
<50% = Early Majority

 

[Eunicholas]

My friends say they will never have one Because it dose not have 600 miles of range, I have done 10k in zoe and people still ask me at work if I can drive it around the golf course. Things are picking up but most of people still don't know anything about EV's ,most think of the G-wiz with 30 miles of range, they are very shocked when they see my car I must say. I hope the model e dose not come out at 35k as I will not be able to afford it.

 

[nattydread]

EV sales are doubling every year. What point is tipping point? Not sure but it will happen.

http://evindustry.com/2014/04/02/electric-vehicle-sales-double-every-year/

 

[Olivier]

We need to remember that with a handful of widely available models available, EVs can't exactly make a splash in the market. There are 6 well known manufacturers who have plugin EVs of some variety in their range :

Nissan : 5.18%
Vauxhall : 11.46%
Mitsubishi : 0.4%
BMW : 6%
Renault : 2%
Toyota : 3.91 %

All together, all models included, they represent less than 30% of the 2013 market and their EVs are only a small fraction of that, available only on a narrow segment of their range. Until that changes (EV drive train available on most models, from most manufacturers) progress will be slow although it might translate into an impressive number of sightings. Mini has less than 3% market share although they seem ubiquitous.

Next year VAG will be a significant addition with EV drive trains available on very popular models (Golf, A3) but until most manufacturers have EV drive trains available on their top best selllers, we won't see quick progress

 

[PaulMorris]

Agreed, the point I was hinting at earlier is Mr Joe Public doesn't go out simply to buy a 2.2l diesel, a 1.8l petrol, or a 80kW EV. He goes out to buy a car based on aesthetics, branding, utility etc. as force-fed by the slick adverts. The choice of drivetrain tends to be an afterthought. Do you take the petrol, diesel, which engine size etc.

That's why I think the Outlander is an interesting one to watch as it's a window into the public affinity for EVs as it's a virtually no cost drivetrain option. Suggests what might happen when others follow suit in making EV or PHEV an option on a car you wanted to buy anyway, rather than have to go buy something else quirky and special.

 

[Jimbo]

We need to remember that with a handful of widely available models available, EVs can't exactly make a splash in the market. There are 6 well known manufacturers who have plugin EVs of some variety in their range :

Nissan : 5.18%
Vauxhall : 11.46%
Mitsubishi : 0.4%
BMW : 6%
Renault : 2%
Toyota : 3.91 %

Where did you get those % from? I am sure there are more Toyota hybrids on the road than the rest put together... Or is that overall marketshare?

 

[Olivier]

overall market share of each brand. Took the number from this article

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/new-car-market-winners-and-losers-2013

 

[richardglover]

I feel I reached a personal tipping point when my first battery capacity bar went.
Our trips to Norfolk which were usually tight in my lovely blue Leaf (one stop in Norwich) now meant charging twice to get to our destination comfortably. So we used the Mini.
No calling ahead to see if the Nissan dealers were open and charger working.
No finding the salesman with key or card.
No moving cars to gain access.
The trip was effortless if not so smooth but a good hour quicker.
So I have tipped over to being realistic about what to expect from my lovely blue Leaf and the odd trip in an ice just confirms how lovely she is.
Ev are not going to take over the world (just yet) and the manufactures don’t have anything to fear by selling them at sensible prices.
And then Ev will find their own level in the market place, which will be considerably higher than it is now.

 

[AndyG]

Hmmm. The Outlander PHEV is £28,250 to about £35,000 after the PICG. I need to drive one, but I have sat in one. Looked as overpriced as any EV to me.


Maybe it is the same price as the diesel but the price range is well above Zoe, Leaf, eNV200, and Kangoo Z.E. The Outlander is more expensive than an eGolf. About the only EV out there that matches it for price is the i3.

I haven't heard anything about pricing on the A3 e-tron. Do you have source?

How can it be overpriced when as I understood it the price of the Mitsibushi PHEV was very much the same as a diesel, this IMO make's the Outlander a real competitor to its main rivals.
If you want a small/medium sized car then you won't be looking at a 4x4.

The cost of the E.Up is miles from the Up. My guess is the cost of the Golf GTe will be miles higher than the Golf GTI/D and the Audi is going to be a little bit more again.

 

[Edd Beesley]

EV sales are doubling every year. What point is tipping point? Not sure but it will happen.

http://evindustry.com/2014/04/02/electric-vehicle-sales-double-every-year/

Year cars sold Cars with plugs
2013 2,260,000 2,448 0.11%
2014 2,260,000 4,896 0.22%
2015 2,260,000 9,792 0.43%
2016 2,260,000 19,584 0.87%
2017 2,260,000 39,168 1.73%
2018 2,260,000 78,336 3.47%
2019 2,260,000 156,672 6.93%
2020 2,260,000 313,344 13.86%
2021 2,260,000 626,688 27.73%
2022 2,260,000 1,253,376 55.46%
2023 2,260,000 2,506,752 110.92%

For the 2013 year it's the actual number of Zoes, Amperas, Volts and Leafs registered. The number then doubles each year.

 

[andrew*debbie]

How can it be overpriced when as I understood it the price of the Mitsibushi PHEV was very much the same as a diesel

~ £30,000 is far too much money for an Outlander diesel. 30 grand is well in to BMW X3 territory.

I've sat in both and I've driven the BMW. The X3 is a much better car.

 

[AndyG]

~ £30,000 is far too much money for an Outlander diesel. 30 grand is well in to BMW X3 territory.

I've sat in both and I've driven the BMW. The X3 is a much better car.

But that is like saying a Discovery cost more than a Mini. You can't compare cars just because they have the same power source it much more compicated than that.
An i3 is a 4 seat city car (BMW's own description) the Outlander a 4x4 large family car. I saw at least 11 Outlanders on my trip to Italy and back and not one i3. A friend of mine has an i3 Rex and a 4x4, when they go on holiday they take the 4x4.