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Sorry, maybe my post wasn't clear. I think the Outlander diesel is overpriced.

I was comparing an Outlander diesel to a BMW X3 diesel. They are about the same size and price. In my opinion the BMW is a much better car.
 

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@Flaninacupboard I believe that curve is hopelessly optimistic. IMO that speed of take up will not happen. We are still in the early adopter stage. At some point sales will start to flatten out until there is a sea-change in range/charging time/price... then it may even be steeper than that graph suggests.
 

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if sales are doubling every year then the growth is (almost) quadratic, it really is going to accelerate fast.
That's the point it is inevitable now.
The key word there is "if"... if the continue to double. IMO that curve is just fantasy and although the growth if good right now it is still in the the early adopter phase. IMO it will flatten out considerably.

Inevitable? I wish I could be that certain. I hope it is inevitable but there is a very long way to go before I would be happy to use that word :)
 

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@Flaninacupboard I believe that curve is hopelessly optimistic. IMO that speed of take up will not happen. We are still in the early adopter stage. At some point sales will start to flatten out until there is a sea-change in range/charging time/price... then it may even be steeper than that graph suggests.
Yeah it's a curve based on doubling sales units. Let's look at the Leaf, new registrations according to howmanyleft.co.uk

Text Line Font Screenshot Technology


2013 was more than double 2012, and just Q1 for 2014 is 49.3% of 2013. To me that looks like 2014 will be double 2013. Add to that the i3 and Outlander sales, and it's easy to see more than double across all plugins. Late this year/early next we have the e golf, golf phev and A3 phev, and of course Model S deliveries are building up. I don't think it's impossible....!
 

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I don't think it is impossible either... I just believe it will happen in anything like the time-scales that many here are suggesting... that is all.

It is just my opinion... nothing more. Yours and other opinions are equally valid IMO :)
 

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It's going to be interesting to see how it pans out. Tesla and Nissan are putting significant effort into promoting their EVs online. Whereas Renault and VW appear to be reactive, waiting for potential customers to come to them.

Taxation has always been a strong influence of market behaviour, whether VED or BIK. PHEVS will benefit – my money's on the A3 e-tron being a game changer – the right combination of brand/size of car/economics/image for fleet drivers.
 

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The favourite model for technology adoption cycles tends to be the S curve. A slow start in the early adopter phase, a rapid building acceleration to max growth rate (another reason why I contend we're beyond early adopter already), then a flattening profile approaching 100% and never quite getting there. Just like a rapid charge cycle from 0% to 100% :)

The growth rate we're seeing is impressive and may increase even further as we approach the maximum, before tailing off again. You can't just double the numbers forever, so yes full adoption is probably a 50 year goal, but EV technology has a fighting chance of hitting saturation even before factoring in events such as peak oil which really start to hurt.
 

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The electronic marketing by Nissan is an interesting point.

My understsanding is they emailed one of the members of Stretton Climate Care a Shropshire environmental group, offering a test drive. They took it up out of interest, not intending to buy and not aware of the progress made.

Less thana year later, they have a Leaf, been involved in the provision of public charging in 2 separate locations in the small town of Church Stretton, and held an awareness day that was supported by Kevin in his Roadster and many other ev's. This and other awareness days have led to others in the area buying plug in ev's. Arguably all from one email and test drive. The ripple effects can be significant.

As far as the tipping point....

Ten years ago on the yahoo email discussion list that was the equivalent of this I remember similar debates.

Some believed 100 mile ev's were never going to happen. Others believed the 500 mile affordable ev was just round the corner. All this lives on a server somewhere.

None of us anticipated that a major car maker Citroen would stop making ev's altogether for sale in the UK. And that effectively we would be left with conversions of ice cars or nothing.

Probably few if any anticipated the man involved in Paypal putting all his money into making ev's happen.


The future is what happens while we're making other plans, as John Lennon says.

Will be fascinating to see how as the switch starts to happen it will impact on the economies of ice cars.....economies of scale starting to fall away may increase the momentum to ev's

I personally believe it will be somewhere in the middle. But the tipping point is psychological as much as anything. And increasingly people who don't drive or consider ev's know about them. And many consider them the future. In that sense I think we are at the very least tipping towards the tipping point...m:)
 

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I personally believe it will be somewhere in the middle. But the tipping point is psychological as much as anything. And increasingly people who don't drive or consider ev's know about them. And many consider them the future. In that sense I think we are at the very least tipping towards the tipping point...m:)

I sense that since the i3 (and James May buying one) and Model S that people no longer ridicule EVs and are now slightly more open-minded, looking for the positives.
 

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Discussion Starter · #51 ·
I sense that since the i3 (and James May buying one) and Model S that people no longer ridicule EVs and are now slightly more open-minded, looking for the positives.
If the i3 rex had a 4 gallon petrol tank I would take the financial hit and order one, if the Outlander had a larger electric range same again……….if I won the lottery it would be a Model S,
 

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For my tuppeny worth, I don't think EVs are only for early adopters as since the Zoe there is a practical (range/purchase price) and attractive (not weird like G-whiz/twizzy) alternative. But the I3 and tesla are way too dear and will not convince mondeo/fiesta man who needs a practical car to get from a to b. Fear of battery failure and replacement cost is still an issue for many though.....
 

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Just to be clear... I didn't say EVs were only for early adopters... they are for everyone where an EV suits their lifestyle and car use and where they can afford one.

However, right now, in this very early stage of take up, if you buy an EV then you are by definition an early adopter.
 

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However, right now, in this very early stage of take up, if you buy an EV then you are by definition an early adopter.
... according to you, in your opinion etc.

Spoken with such authority when nobody has the facts or the benefit of hindsight to interpret the adoption curve definitively. Other opinions, models, evidence are available, ymmv, terms & conditions may apply..
 

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... according to you, in your opinion etc.
Yes, according to me... everything I write here is according to me unless I state otherwise.

However, I have tried to see it your way and I keep coming back to the unavoidable fact that it is so early in the take up of EVs and there are so few of them around right now that I can see it no other way than to accept that all EV owners today must be early adopters.

By "early adopter" I mean someone that would buy an EV in spite of their known problems and disadvantages and in spite of it being an undeveloped technology thereby meaning that they are buying with a high degree of uncertainty of where it might lead. Once there are enough EVs on the road for people to see that the bulk of the issues are mostly resolved, and the risk is reduced, so people would then, IMO, not be early adopters.

Just because it works for you 100% without compromise does not make it mainstream in my opinion and you would still be an early adopter in my eyes.
 

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Four years after the introduction of the Leaf, six years after the Tesla Roadster eighteen years after the EV1 and one hundred years since the Detroit Electric, we are still early adopters.

I think the tipping point to mainstream is just around the corner. If not 2014, then 2015. EVs are here to stay this time.

I'd argue that in some parts of the US it has already happened.
 

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When you can rock up at any backstreet garage to get a refurbished battery installed, or an inverter replaced, then you know you are out of the early adopter phase.

Again worth comparing with phones. It took years and global market success before you could go to any old phone shop / market stall to get your out of warranty iPhone fixed. Before then, it was Apple or the bin.
 

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When you can rock up at any backstreet garage to get a refurbished battery installed, or an inverter replaced, then you know you are out of the early adopter phase.
In the US there are dedicated hybrid repair shops already in "hybrid friendly" areas, Luscious Garage springs to mind, and they are already doing EV's. It will come :)
 
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