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FUD FUD FUD.

But worrying. There's obvious a massive, concerted attempt to shaft BEVs in favour of FCEVs on the basis that the latter can serve the current car and fuel industries far better than the former, and so we must expect the usual crap thrown at the public in huge volumes by every medium.

I see someone's got the "It's cold in Canada, BEVs don't go very far" comment in.

With the Model 3 about to go off, everyone chucking money at EVs, vapourware or actually, you hope that FCEVs are the minidisc of the propulsion system world.
 

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Let's do some maths (I'm good at this, don't you agree! ;) )

51 miles/kg from a bunch of FCEVs:-
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf

55kWh/kg from ITM's own figures for electrolysis:-
Green Car Congress: ITM Power reports its estimated cost of producing hydrogen via electrolysis down significantly from last year

"The efficiency and cost of electrolysis has also changed markedly over the past few years as volumes have increased. Electrolytic hydrogen made onsite now has cost parity with petrol and diesel in many parts of the world including the UK.":-
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-hydrogen-vehicles-graham-cooley

So, Mr Cooley (who presumably has no vested interests in selling hydrogen (ho ho)) reckons that even at an wholesale rate of, say, 5p/kWh that 51 miles will cost a mere £2.75 of electrical energy (let's forget how much the electrolyser costs, I am sure he will throw that in for free) and that is comparable with diesel in the UK.

51 miles in diesel is around a gallon of diesel, and the cost of diesel in the UK is.... 30p per litre, including retail profit.

So I make it that to achieve parity with diesel in the UK, the price for electricity has to be ..... 2.47p/kWh.

Well, it is not an OOM out, maybe there are times of day when wholesale electricity could sell for that sort of price.

... But let's not compare this with burning fossilised dinosaur sputum, let's compare it fairly with the new gleamy white shiny new BEV technology!!:-

55kWh = >200 miles in a BEV. (I'd get 330 miles out that, but that's just me! ;) )

55kWh = 51 miles in a FCEV.

Now let's add on fuel duty on to the hydrogen. (Oh, yes, Mr Cooley, don't forget you are giving HM Gov the chance to whack on all that missing fuel duty.)

+ 31.6p/kg + 20%;- [currently]
Fuel Duty - GOV.UK
(see "Road fuel gas other than natural gas – eg liquefied petroleum gas")

So that is now £3.70 (a 30% markup) so now we're comparing the equivalent of 450 donald-EV miles to 51 FCEV miles.

I'd say the arithmetic suggests a slam-dunk for BEVs, but perhaps the numbers alone don't do the hydrogen dream the poetic justice that the dreamers hope it has.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
So in a discussion with ITM Power's Business Development director, they were fronting a few numbers about their H2 production.

By their own calculations, running an FCEV for 12,000 miles requires 200 Kg of H2. This equates to 8MWh of H2, which at a 70% efficiency of their PEM electrolyser would need approx. 11.4 MWh of electricity.

If you put this amount of electricity into a BEV you would get at least 33,000 miles, even in a Model X. Smaller cars would of course get much more range.

The City has funded them to around 45 million so far. I wonder how long they will be around once the Model 3 and other long range BEVs hit the market.
 

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Bearing in mind there's a wide range of fuel efficiency for ICE vehicles which would be used a justification for hydrogen, and given the vested interests of the oil companies, sadly I think a lot of money will be spent trying to persuade the public that hydrogen is the future.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
They're quoting £10-£12 per Kg of H2. So at least £50 to fill a Toyota Mirai or equivalent for 300 miles.

Not comparable in cost with a BEV.
 

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Bearing in mind there's a wide range of fuel efficiency for ICE vehicles which would be used a justification for hydrogen, and given the vested interests of the oil companies, sadly I think a lot of money will be spent trying to persuade the public that hydrogen is the future.
I dont think much money is needed. Most people I speak to who ask about my car usually come up with the "of course, hydrogen is the future" phrase so the vast majority already seem to to think this is true and ev's are a betamax distraction.

EV manufacturers may need to spend money to spread some facts to the masses such as

that most hydrogen comes from fossil fuel

that electrolysis of water to get hydrogen is only 25% efficient

Hydrogen it is not as quick to fill as petrol and probably similar to rapid EV charges we will have within 10 years

Current cost of hydrogen is similar to running ff car

the huge cost and expensive metals used in fuel cells; they know all about rare earth magnets in ev's but get upset when I point out that a Tesla motor has none of these. They are also well versed in lithium mining and how it exploits child labour and causes huge environment damage

that a hydrogen car is simply an ev with a different battery - some think they will have a v8 growl.

that hydrogen is very good at leaking out of storage tanks and quite difficult to contain.

I can see hydrogen being used in heavy good vehicles - proper long distance Australian road train types or for storage and distribution of excess renewable s via the gas network. Maybe even shipping if their is enough of the stuff made. No way will it be used for cars unless there are some massive discoveries to overcome the shortcomings.
 

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I think it more likely that the hydrogen will be processed on to make methane and complex liquid fuels, which can be stored in existing gas and fuel networks.
 

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Most people I know just say 'they know because it was on top gear'. That single episode has caused much trouble.
 

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I have been told that they could have their car converted to hydrogen soon!! There seems to be some who think of it like having an LPG conversion done as well. Lets see how that one plays out.
 

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Giving the government a network or pumps where they can add 80% tax is a disaster. Everyone must resist this inefficient expensive technology.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Giving the government a network or pumps where they can add 80% tax is a disaster. Everyone must resist this inefficient expensive technology.
I don't think it will take much resistance. You can't buy a FCEV very easily today and they're expensive.

It's even worse if you try and go anywhere off the M1 or M40. At least if you're an EV nut you can get destination charging - with FCEV there's no such thing.

H2 is already 3-4 times the cost per mile of a BEV before they add any duty!
 

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And it is still set up to be touted as the fuel of the future. Likely to get big industry backing from the Merchants of Doubt crew, water vapour is the only emission, the Japanese are crazy for it and it was on Top Gear.

Meanwhile, we're all vegans driving wallet cripplingly expensive milk floats that can't do 600 miles in one go and it takes 4 hours to "refuel" and we kill blind people and deaf old ladies because they can't hear us coming.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
No one will remember the Clarity.

There's a real chance they'll remember the Leaf, Zoe and Model S...
 

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And it is still set up to be touted as the fuel of the future. Likely to get big industry backing from the Merchants of Doubt crew, water vapour is the only emission, the Japanese are crazy for it and it was on Top Gear.

Meanwhile, we're all vegans driving wallet cripplingly expensive milk floats that can't do 600 miles in one go and it takes 4 hours to "refuel" and we kill blind people and deaf old ladies because they can't hear us coming.
Its amazing what a few milliion dollars will buy. Paid bloggers, politicans, brietbart....
 

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Autocar bigging up the Clarity they're running as a daily driver.

Then we spotted a figure in the Mirai brochure stating that a tankful equates ‘roughly’ to 60 litres of conventional fuel capacity. That means 4.7kg of consumed hydrogen equates roughly to 56.4 litres, or 10.3 gallons. It gives you a range of 270 miles, thus in ‘petrol equivalent’ the Mirai returns 26.2mpg. Not impressive, if it matters.

We think a more interesting gauge of the Mirai’s efficiency is to measure fuel cost per mile and compare it with, say, a 40mpg petrol car. Hydrogen costs £9.99 per kilo, so our 4.7kg fill-up costs £47, give or take. Over 270 miles, that’s 5.74 miles per pound, or 17.4 pence per mile. Now consider a 40mpg petrol saloon fuelled at £1.20 per litre/£5.46 per gallon. Over 270 miles it would use 8.1 gallons, which costs £44.20 or 16.3p per mile, near enough.

Ergo, running a similarly sized petrol car costs roughly 90% of what we’re paying to run the Mirai.It seems a steal given that this is still very much an experimental car.
So, 90% cheaper to run an ICE and 26.2 mpg - THE FUTURE IS HERE!
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Autocar bigging up the Clarity they're running as a daily driver.

Then we spotted a figure in the Mirai brochure stating that a tankful equates ‘roughly’ to 60 litres of conventional fuel capacity. That means 4.7kg of consumed hydrogen equates roughly to 56.4 litres, or 10.3 gallons. It gives you a range of 270 miles, thus in ‘petrol equivalent’ the Mirai returns 26.2mpg. Not impressive, if it matters.

We think a more interesting gauge of the Mirai’s efficiency is to measure fuel cost per mile and compare it with, say, a 40mpg petrol car. Hydrogen costs £9.99 per kilo, so our 4.7kg fill-up costs £47, give or take. Over 270 miles, that’s 5.74 miles per pound, or 17.4 pence per mile. Now consider a 40mpg petrol saloon fuelled at £1.20 per litre/£5.46 per gallon. Over 270 miles it would use 8.1 gallons, which costs £44.20 or 16.3p per mile, near enough.

Ergo, running a similarly sized petrol car costs roughly 90% of what we’re paying to run the Mirai.It seems a steal given that this is still very much an experimental car.
So, 90% cheaper to run an ICE and 26.2 mpg - THE FUTURE IS HERE!
As @donald has previously pointed out, this is the price without any duty. This is somewhere around 45% of the total price per litre for Petrol, but of course it depends on how they tax H2 of course.

Also we should remember that FCEVs are still EVs underneath (just with an onboard electrical generator), so H2 consumption will increase in cold weather where cabin heating is used.
 
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