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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
From today's Finanical times:


138664



I'm not sure if GM's gradual decline or Tesla not being burried with Other is more notable. Chrysler used to be one of the "Big Three". Now Fiat-Chrysler are lumped in with other.

Is 2021 the year Tesla overtake Renault? Model Y production in China just started. Will Cybertruck pull Tesla into the 4% group in 2022?

Will GM drop into the 4% group next year? 2022?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
Does Hyundai include Kia or will they make up a big chunk of other?


I would assume that Hyundai includes Kia.

The FT article is about Tesla's share price and price to earnings ratio. The table is likely based on revenue of publically traded companies.
 

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Interesting stuff. Whether they continue to make big changes in share or not doesn't really matter, the objective of getting rid of dino burners remains in sight and on track.
 

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From today's Finanical times:


View attachment 138664


I'm not sure if GM's gradual decline or Tesla not being burried with Other is more notable. Chrysler used to be one of the "Big Three". Now Fiat-Chrysler are lumped in with other.

Is 2021 the year Tesla overtake Renault? Model Y production in China just started. Will Cybertruck pull Tesla into the 4% group in 2022?

Will GM drop into the 4% group next year? 2022?
Telsa shares are still cheap, comapred to what they will be in a few years. Load up now.

(Declaration. I own 50 share in Tesla from 2016-2020 up 211%)
 

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Telsa shares are still cheap, comapred to what they will be in a few years. Load up now.

(Declaration. I own 50 share in Tesla from 2016-2020 up 211%)
So what happens to Tesla share price, when the inevitable happens, and Elon either finally departs for Mars or blows himself up trying?
Does the share price dive or does it climb on the basis that billions of dollars of stock options go up in rocket fuel smoke with him.
 

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Or the other motor manufacturers wake up and smell the coffee and kick into gear, as some clearly are now.
Much more likely the other way, come 2021/22 the Tesla 3 and Y will be made in Berlin for EU and UK, with much more cost effective 4680 cells and fornt and rear end giga castings, big savings will be passed on in the retail price. You are probably looking at £35k for a T3£ SR+ or less , under £40k to an SR+ Model Y. All the competition will be over £40k for less tech, less range and less efficiency. Then 2025 the Golf / ID3 killer C class hatch will be launched with 4680 cells, under £25k for SR+ , fully loaded. under 6 seconds 0-60.

They are all 10 years behind. ~"They" will have products, but all will be bad value compared to Tesla and have to be sold at a loss to compete with Tesla.

Tesla share price will be at least double now by 2025.
 

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Or the other motor manufacturers wake up and smell the coffee and kick into gear, as some clearly are now.
Tesla have done an amazing job but maintaining the advantage will not be easy.
I think Tesla have built a strong position, and have a lead, they're also not burdened with the costs of closing unsuitable manufacturing sites, so it'll maybe be a while before that is eroded by VW and Hyundai etc.
We might also think about the rise of the Chinese manufacturers taking share and reducing margins as fairly inevitable.
Then there is also whether the whole car ownership model will change....
 

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Tesla currently has a p/e ratio of 1300. Volkswagen is on about 20. That means Tesla’s profits need to increase 65-fold once it’s a mature company just to justify the current price. Now, it all depends how much extra marginal profit it can make once production increases, but that’s a hefty growth rate already baked into the existing share price.
 

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Tesla have done an amazing job but maintaining the advantage will not be easy.
I think Tesla have built a strong position, and have a lead, they're also not burdened with the costs of closing unsuitable manufacturing sites, so it'll maybe be a while before that is eroded by VW and Hyundai etc.
We might also think about the rise of the Chinese manufacturers taking share and reducing margins as fairly inevitable.
Then there is also whether the whole car ownership model will change....
Cough, cough:
 
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Tesla are also into grid power storage & balancing in a big way, appear to have excellent R&D & so patents lined up in the solid-state area, and there's a rumoured? tie-up with Ford to supply platform tech/something to them. I would hope this would get them royalties/fees/some income. I don't know what fraction of Tesla's business is EVs and what is Grid+other, but surely their share price is anticipating huge growth in those areas as well? I suspect their growth rate will be limited purely by how fast they can build Gigafcatories.
 

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I’m not saying it won’t grow, and fast, but it needs to get to a profit of about $32 bn a year, twice that of Volkswagen, to justify its CURRENT share price if it was a mature company. Mind you, I remember when it seemed ridiculous that Amazon had a bigger market cap than British Airwas...
 

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I’m not saying it won’t grow, and fast, but it needs to get to a profit of about $32 bn a year, twice that of Volkswagen, to justify its CURRENT share price if it was a mature company. Mind you, I remember when it seemed ridiculous that Amazon had a bigger market cap than British Airwas...
VW are not a tech company or an energy company. I looked, VW cant sell me home energy storage or Home solar or full self driving. Tesla can / will. VW is just a Automobile company (who dont make semi trucks either)
 

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Yes, but the principles are the same. While you’re growing, the market will look more at your revenues than your earnings. But eventually you have to justify your value by the profits you make, at which point you are looking for a realistic rate of return. Admittedly some tech companies have defied gravity for a long time, but at some point reality has to kick in.

If it were a given that Tesla’s share price would be double its current level by 2025, it would already be 80% higher as the market anticipated it. I’m not saying it definitely won’t be, but you seem to have forgotten the truism that past performance is not a guide to future prices...
 

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Yes, but the principles are the same. While you’re growing, the market will look more at your revenues than your earnings. But eventually you have to justify your value by the profits you make, at which point you are looking for a realistic rate of return. Admittedly some tech companies have defied gravity for a long time, but at some point reality has to kick in.

If it were a given that Tesla’s share price would be double its current level by 2025, it would already be 80% higher as the market anticipated it. I’m not saying it definitely won’t be, but you seem to have forgotten the truism that past performance is not a guide to future prices...
Then it looks like by 2030 Tesla will be 50% of the worldwide new car BEV market, either direct, or indirect supplying the majority of it's ICE competitors with profitable BEV skateboard platforms, or batteries, dirvetrain and control / software systems. Job Done.
 

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Only if they manufacture in China. Electric motors, batteries an control systems are not that complicated so the advantage will always be cheap labour. We're now reaching a stage where what were luxury items are found in many run of the mill cars. The only things left for luxury car makers will be smoother softer rides and interior comforts. Speed and acceleration are less and less important.
 

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Then it looks like by 2030 Tesla will be 50% of the worldwide new car BEV market, either direct, or indirect supplying the majority of it's ICE competitors with profitable BEV skateboard platforms, or batteries, dirvetrain and control / software systems.
Which only highlights the problem - neither the EU nor the US, let alone China, are going to allow any company to take such a monopolistic position. And yet, once it reaches the limit of its growth, investors will reassess and require a value rather than a growth p/e.
 
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