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Nissan Asks: Do You Want a 150-mile Nissan LEAF? How Much Would You Pay?

10K views 119 replies 36 participants last post by  MikeProcter 
Well if you are going to resurrect a thread I'll join in. My last 3 cars prior to i3 were Nissans (Navarra, X-Trail and Juke).

Make me a 370EVZ please. I'm ready for a mid life crisis. No one is doing the Electric sports coupe yet. 2 seats. It's a niche Nissan could own. At least ill BMW come out with an i3 coupe. Though these days it would be called an i4. They need a halo car to sell the "lesser" models.

That - or a 60kWh Quashquai would get me away from a Telsa Model 3. And get me to flog the (unused since I bought the i3) X-Trail.

No range extender just 60kWH and 100 kW rapid. With inputs in the frunk for CHAdeMO, CCS and Superchargers.
 
LOL. Just had a look 370Z is £27-37k. Pretty sure Nissan could come up with something in the i3 price range! But don't know about a 60kWH battery. Still why not go REX? 30kWh and a nice little petrol motor to get the petrol heads out of their ICEs? Just beef up the REX a bit to cope with motorway cruising and you'd have an i3 beater. Yeah BEV is best, so give people the build option. 30kWh with REX for people on lower budgets, £27k. And the 60kWh BEV for big spenders.
I think most EVs are bought as coimmutter cars so the lack of seats isn't going to put people off.
 
The 370Z is already very heavy for a coupe (not sure why, but from memory it was about 300kg overweight compared with stuff like an MX5 or Z4). Don't think it would suit having batteries added in as well.

In terms of 2-seater EV, Tesla are still flogging "approved" Roadsters. Not exactly affordable though.
They're a lot bigger than an MX5 or a Z4. more like a 2+2 without the rear seats and a stupid bar in the way so you can't use it for ikea either. Lol. A bit of repackaging and they'd have a rival for a 4 series (my old 330 coupe could seat 4 in comfort and had fold down seats).
 
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Except anyone with a family...
If you wanted a car that's only for commuting then maybe but then you want as cheap as possible that just has the range for the commute otherwise the extra battery is a waste of money.
A complete range of BEV cars is the way to go - fill all the niches just like errr ICE cars :)
Yeah i forgot to clarify that with. .. by any one who was considering an elise/mx5/Z4 etc. They'd actually get more luggage space in an 370ZEV as yes a big hole for a frunk where the V6 used to go.
 
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What it would need is to be a normal trailer with a Telsa/i3 Type flat battery underneath and place to stick camping gear or the contents of a 3 bed semi / visit to Ikea on top. Hey there's an idea of who should own/rent them out!
 
yeah back to the original question... next EV for me must have 200 miles real world range. To make sure I can get 180 in winter, on the trip to Poole to see mum and dad. And do 150 mile day trips on days out without worrying about public charging. I honestly dont think public charging will ever be stress free, and the Telsa approach is the only correct one... big battery and manufacturer owned charging. All the other manufacturers need to pull their fingers out.
 
So a 1.5x multiplier on the current Leaf battery will bring a real world 100 mile winter range, and that's a half of what you want?

How much extra will this 1.5x multiplier cost? And you want double that.

I'm not saying you are wrong to want that, I'm posing the follow-up logic which is to wonder what range is enough for people.

So you end up with 2.5 tonnes of 85kWh battery to get you a real world 200 mile winter range. Is that enough? Yup, that'll be £50k then, please?

The 'average' car owner is looking at either a commuter-only BEV plus a second ICE for occasional use, or a REx. I can't see the economic argument for anything else.

I've gone from a BEV to a REx. Many now have. How many have gone the other way?
There's no such thing as an average person. I was stating what I wanted. I presume Nissan will look at the range of answers they get and bring out 1 or more models that best suits what they are hearing. I forgot to say I'd pay up to £35,000.

Just did some numbers instead of making them up....(from wikipedia so let me know if they are out of date)
To get 200 miles real world range requires 60kWh assuming 0.3mile/kWh.
The current left battery is 218kg/24kWh with cell denisty of 140Wh/kg.

That means there's 171kg of Cells and 46kg of packaging and controls.

To upgrade that to 60kWh only using the existing cells would bring the cell weight up to 428kg (not 2,500) plus say 100 for packaging as the controller won't increase by the same amount. So call it 550kg. That's a just over a doubling in weight of the current leaf battery. However assume 8% year on year density improvement (a figure I know from previous digging around) 5 years of development should get you a compounded weight saving of 23% of the original battery. So 425kg.
Just under double the existing battery. Adding a total of 207kg. New kerb weight if nothing else was changed would be... 1700kg. Heavy. But an i3 BEV come with 22kWh in 1195kg. So there's 300kg to be shaved by using lighter materials. Not sure if they are up for this - but potentially it means you can have a 60kWh car with just 1400kg - allowing the same development and work on aero.

That's what I'll be replacing my i3 REX with... whoever gets their first. I say replacing - I mean I'll pass the i3 on to my OH.

Enough for most people is whatever they do daily + a bit, and a second car. I'm thinking of people who have tried the BEV as an only car and not liked it because of the long distance issues. But they'd pay a lot more for bigger batteries. Just look at how well Telsa is selling. BEVs are still a niche market and I think they will stay that way until they can become true ICE replacements. Nothing wrong with a niche... just takes longer to get a decent Rapid network in place.
 
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I think the reality is they are just being lazy till Telsa brings out the Model 3 or whatever they will call it. 50-60kWh for £30kish. If you look at comments on the Telsa forums probably half the current Model S owners are people who never spent more than $30,000 on a car before - usually buying something like a Toyota Camry or Ford Taurus. They swap cars every 10 years or so but have justified the S on long term ownership costs (even with US $/gallon). This is the market the model 3 will tap into - people who used to spend £15-20k on a Ford Focus or Renault Megane every 3 years on a PCP. A £30k list on a Model 3 will look expensive to start with, but once they do the PCP + fuel comparison things will start to swing in the Telsa favour for anything over 10,000 miles a year. Given that the Telsa should have a much higher residual than a 3 years old Megane. Not only will this eat up ICE sales it will eat into short range BEVs. I don't think the typical leaf buyer is someone who normally buys up 10 year old Fiestas and runs them into the ground. Probably someone swapping from a Corolla/Focus/Megane/305 type car. I don't doubt theres a market for short range BEVs but not as big of a market for medium range BEVs for say £5,000-£10,000 more.

You can't just add battery mass to the published kerb weight and call it engineering! How much extra chassis space is needed, how much do the brakes and suspension need to be upgraded, is there enough space left for the passengers or do you have to make the car bigger?

As you make the car bigger and heavier, the mi/kWh drops so you are then chasing your own specifications.

I didn't pluck 2.5 tonnes out of the air - it is what the Tesla weights in at, which is currently the only production EV known to mankind capable of this sort of range. What you want exists. I understand that was your personal 'wish list' but it is similar to the thought processes of many people who are consciously choosing against BEVs and sticking with ICE.
I'm saying that if you redesign the car from the ground up you can shed hundreds of kg. I'm using existing cars as benchmarks as to what is possible with known tech. I'm not sure what Nissan are planning, just a battery update/refresh or a ground up new Leaf, but it is possible. The i3 is 300kg lighter than the Leaf. And the Telsa is 2,100kg not 2,500 with most owners getting around 0.3-0.33 kWh/mile average. I used 0.3 earlier assuming a smaller car with a better design possible from companies with hundreds of engineers would lead to worse case 0.3. Both the current 65kWh and 85kWh are within 50kg of each other as they use lighter cells in the 85. So even now there potential to lose weight on the current 60. I'm guessing they used heavier cells to save having to do 2 sets of suspension / brakes etc. Don't forget the Telsa is a BIG car, bigger than an XF. I drove both the Telsa and a XF within a week of each other when deciding what to purchase before I got the i3. 5 Full size seats, plus 1780 litres of luggage space. It's been designed as a large no compromise luxury barge. Even in traditional ICE cars it's possible to shed hundreds of kg - look at a Lotus Evora S(345hp/1437kg) compared to a 428i Coupe (306hp/1585kg) or Audi S5 (328hp/1675kg).
 
I think my £ maths might be a bit off actually. Its more likely to be people who used to go for say a mid spec premium brand who will jump straight into an mid range EV. Especially people who used to drive a diesel to get better MPG and or lower tax, when actually they only drove 20 miles a day. Audi better watch out as they have nothing with decent EV range yet. And I dont see anything in development. Nissan/BMW could be snapping up whatever market share Telsa dont take. At least merc are trying... the B class doesnt look too bad a choice.
 
I signed up for the ED pilot programme In 2009. Great at 0-40 but not much after that. Did a test run up the A38 at 62mph from Brum and after getting less than halfway to Lichfield, where I was living at the time decided not to apply for the lease. Lucky really as I ended up in a flat with no parking space let alone charge point in the centre of Brum. They were built by Zytek just up the road who also build LMP2 race cars. An EV version of one of those might get on my lottery list :)
 
"is said to be only a few years away". So not imminent.

Based on my spreadsheet with 7% yr on year cost reduction and 8% Density improvement its 2023 for same cost as now with double capacity and less than half the weight.

In other words he's not lying, but "a few short years" means more than 5. If they can beat that it would be a suprise to everyone and mean they have really pushed to get new tech to market.
 
I don't think they will stop making cars with smaller cheaper battery packs as they know not everyone wants a 200 mile car. Those that do will have to pay for it. Think of it this way - if they can make a car cheap enough with 200 miles range - the cost savings will trickle down into smaller packs too - making Zoes cost even less.
 
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I love my Leaf but come on, the Tesla model S has far more range, and you can't attribute the extra cost too just batteries, that won't wash.
A replacement i3 pack put together from spare modules is about £12,000. So for 300 miles range (current battery goes about 70-90) you'd be looking at £40,000.

Lets try another approach ... Nissan have said a complete replacement pack would cost about £6,000 IIRC. So then you are looking at about £20k for the battery. But you'll need to beef up the car chassis, and the electronics to charge it. So a 300 mile leaf will cost about £40-50k. And weigh over 2 tonnes. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think too many people are ready to splash out that much. To carry that weight you'd need a car as big as ahem, a Tesla. What you want is effectively a Telsa without a 17" touchscreen, air suspension and pop out door handles. Cheaper interior fit out .I wonder why Tesla didn't think of it? Maybe it's adding the nice stuff only costs about £5k to them but people spending £40k+ on a car expect nice interiors - and they get to charge £10k for all the nice stuff. And add another options £10k of stuff too.

For a longer trip say 10 times a year say. Best to rent a Corsa for £50 for a weekend. Unless you are wealthy - then yes - buy a Tesla. Nissan may decide to offer a long[er] range Leaf - but will presumably keep the short range on offer for people who only make short trips. Plenty of people have 2 cars in the family. By that I mean millions. BEVfor school runs and a local commute. 2.0Tdi for motorway runs of 100 miles a day and trips to the south of france/cornwall/aunty ethel in Edinburgh.

FWIW I think both Nissan and Telsa have the right approach, sell EVs ;-) Given both sell quite a lot, its better to have short range EVs as well as long range - or there would be a lot less on the roads as only rich people could afford them.
 
The thing i think Tesla got right is to start at the expensive and niche end of the market. Build amazing and desirable cars that we all want and wish we could afford & have us waiting till the day they will build one in our price bracket. Show us what is possible and not build compromise cars that have us worrying daily about range. For some of us it might be the model 3. Some people might have to wait till model 4 and 5 after GF 20 has opened ;)

Nissan could have gone this route and built a GTR-e or something like that. Top of the range super car botherer. I am hopeful they are going to go that route after seeing this year's GTR LMP1 car. I'd love them to build something that makes the i8 look outdated in its use of a main ICE engine with electric support. There's definitely room the market for a pumped up leaf on steroids with a REX to avoid heavy batteries but have long ranges. If they stick a 20l gas tank in and ignore the CARB BEVx restriction, they'd have a sure winner. Just as they have stuck the leaf in an NV200 they now need to stick about 300hp of electric motors (2 rear and 1 front) and 30kWh + REX into a Z car. ZEV. ;) 100 Mike EV range 300 total. No direct petrol drive. Just back up gen for the battery. Though if they did a NV200 rex with towing ability I'd be down the dealers next week. Want a load lugger / holiday bus more than a sports car.
 
i think that in the real world the holy grail at a reasonble cost is the 150 miles real world a doable range.
otley
agreed. 150 is the magic number. That's more than great majority of people need on a day to say basis. Then for longer trips with a top up to 80% that's another 120 miles to destination. 270 miles is probably enough to cover 99% of journeys. The other 1% 120 miles between stops isn't too much of a compromise.

One problem then just over the horizon... Assume 0.3 miles per kWh. As it's going to be high speed motorway with a heavier car. That's 45kWh needed. So call it a 50 kWh pack to have some spare and a bit of reserve either end to protect the batteries. To charge that 45kWh up on a 50kW rapid is going to take too long. Nearly an hour. As soon as these are available they'll need to introduce 100kW charging to get a top up into the half hour it takes to order a fast food meal eat it, nip to the loo and get a fresh coffee.

Can't wait :)
 
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Owning a car when you could walk cycle or use public transport for most of your travelling (and pay for occasional hire cars) doesn't make financial sense either!
The trouble is I've found private motoring is cheaper than public transport, and often faster. eg. £350/month for a season ticket vs leasing a fiesta for £120 fuelling it insuring it still beats the train. Thats before you look at adding an extra passesnger or 2 by car sharing.
I'm pretty sure that Lithium air will have energy densities comparable to liquid fuel, and certainly the usable output will be comparable or even better. As for 100 miles in five minutes? That's only 400kw, I'm sure we'll see charging rates that high somewhere between 10 and 20 years from now, probably first at a tesla supercharger.
I'm thinking this is tied to packsize / C rates. The bigger the battery the faster it take take current into cells in parallel. Until a commerical nano treatment for the anode cathode is available to deal with saturationand heating.

All this talk of long range etc etc.

The average person drives less than 10,000 miles a year. Say they only drive it for 48 weeks a year and 5 days a week. (Most of my clients drive much less)
That is roughly 42 miles a day.
So the average person should be able to cope very easily with a Leaf in its current state.
Many people I interview have never driven outside the M25 or on a motorway!
As an aside I think it is daft that a PHEV or a REX is classed the same as a pure BEV.
Taking a look outside london youll find theres no such things as average unless someone happens to be doing a 40 miles commute. Over my 20 year career I've had that once. But from different jobs all over I've had 3, 5, 32, 38, 45, 54, 65, 76, 118, and 300 (done biweekly) miles round trip commutes. So although the ampera was designed to meet the 40 mile average commute, that would mean half of people on average travel longer than that. It's better to design a BEV car for the mass market... 80% of users than the average. The bottom 10% would be better of walking/cycling and the top 10% need a PHEV not a BEV.

I do agree an i3 REX is probably the best compromise car that can do everything at the moment, except for carrying 5 people plus a lot of luggage. Hence why I've got one. ;) I find the pure EVangelists a bit funny. Its like burning fuel should be avoided at all costs, which is easy to say when you have an F150 / Suburban for longer trips ;) or never travel further than the city you live in.

Yeah I'd love a 150 mile leaf.
 
Bit off-topic, but I'd find it interesting to know how many of the "PHEVs are not good enough" brigade who own BEVs also have a (family/work/personal) ICE car available to them. I'm pro PHEV and REX technology and yet our family of four has one BEV and one BEV only, and has done for almost a year and a half.
I've got the REX and an X-trail, er no BEV. Despite the i3 being "small", I've decided as soon as I can clear the 2sofas in the garage and get to the camping gear I'm going to check it fits in the i3 and then it's by bye X-trail. Camping gear being a 4m x 4m gala tent, with the fabric fitting in a "pirate" chest, the 2m poles on the roof, shoulder height fridge freezer, and camp cooking cooking stuff for 6 blokes. Luckily I only need 2 seats! Family holidays we'll have to leave camping for a while and stick to rented cottages with 13amp outlet ;-)

X-Trail has been sat on the drive since Jan when I got the i3. Probably need to charge the 12V battery now. The one thing I'll miss most is being able to tow, and or stick my towball mounted bikes rack on the back to avoid scratching paint. I've worked out it's costing £50 a month to have it sitting there. Before depreciation. !

I recall this debate on TMC too. Amazing the number of fervent anti PHEVers who had a secret ICE in the garage.
I've notice that when people list their cars "P85+, Ferrari 355, GMC Tahoe etc". I drive the Telsa every where on electric and would never have it with a REX. I got jumped on in the main tesla forum for even suggesting such a thing as a REX. Ok, ok, then instead of having twice as many cars built with 42.5kWh packs and half the battery weight, you greedy sods have 85kWh to yourself and sod us paupers who will just have to wait till Gen 3. Yeah I'd love an unlimited range EV, with inroad wireless charging, but we have to get there incrementally. Try doing that with an ICE.

Note if you did have trunk roads with electric power - either over head, scalextric style or wireless - you'd only need 40 mile batteries. ;-) Just to get you from home to the nearest powered route. Maybe something for 2050 though when all cars and trucks are electric if the govs target gets met.
 
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