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To complicate matters with facts so far on the table, since Brexit vote:

Honda Swindon closure announced
Ford South Wales closure announced
Nissan moved X-trail production out of the UK

All major manufacturers warned that loss of current seamless trading terms with EU would mean closure of UK manufacturing

SMMT estimated cost of no deal Brexit on car manufacturers at £40bn by 2024

UK government forced to subsidise Nissan and BMW to not close remaining production.

Tesla explicitly stated European manufacture centre chosen in Germany not UK due to Brexit Elon Musk says Brexit made him decide against Tesla electric car Gigafactory in UK

Toyota haven’t announced closure yet but warned they will in a no-deal Brexit Brexit: Toyota warns its UK plants in jeopardy under no-deal

That is all volume car production either closing or being bribed to temporarily stay open.


But people relying on their jobs to feed their families shouldn’t worry, because some bloke on the internet has got some slogans and in his opinion Brexit is going to be great.

Forgive us if those of us watching jobs and talented staff leave the UK don’t share your enthusiasm, or find your offensive posts funny.
There was much political posturing on both sides in an attempt to sway public opinion prior to the votes on leaving the EU last year and manufacturers will continue to lobby government to secure the outcome most favourable to themselves at the end of the transition period.

As yet I am not aware of any car manufacture having made any significant decisions about UK car production since it was confirmed that the UK is leaving the EU. I think all we can do is wait and see what happens. Speculation is not helpful, particularly while emotions are still running high after the election.

Maybe we need to take a step back and put our own political views on one side for the sake of harmony on the forum.
 

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As yet I am not aware of any car manufacture having made any significant decisions about UK car production since it was confirmed that the UK is leaving the EU.
BMW put the new Mini on hold specifically due to brexit. Overall car industry investment in the UK has been very low due to brexit, but of course it is hard to measure the effects of things like this directly. They are obviously very worried about the future of manufacturing here.

 

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BMW put the new Mini on hold specifically due to brexit. Overall car industry investment in the UK has been very low due to brexit, but of course it is hard to measure the effects of things like this directly. They are obviously very worried about the future of manufacturing here.

I believe a distinction needs to be made between the Brexit process and Life after Brexit. I don’t think any one doubts that Brexit uncertainty has impacted on investment in the UK automotive industry and will continue to do so until our trading relationship post Brexit is resolved. What the future will be after Brexit is the big unknown.

The whole automotive manufacturing landscape is changing, not least because of the move towards electric vehicles. Current numbers of EVs are relatively small but manufacturers are having to make investment decisions now based on how they see the market in say 5 years time. With each passing month something changes, often because of a change in government policy (here or elsewhere) and Brexit is I believe just one of the variables that has to be factored in.

I think a lot of the actual closures reported in this thread are probably more to do with the changing landscape of the automotive industry than Brexit but it is not possible to ignore the fact that the Brexit situation was ongoing at the time. I note that Tesla ruled out the UK in favour of Berlin and Brexit was reported to be a factor but might it have gone to mainland Europe in any event purely because of logistical considerations?

So much is up in the air as regards tariffs and our future trading relationships that I would not expect any manufacturers to make final decisions until after 31 December. What we are likely to hear however is a lot of noise as various sectors of industry set out what the alternative options mean for them.

AsI have said we can only speculate for now and take every forecast we hear with a pinch of salt.
 

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BMW put the new Mini on hold specifically due to brexit. Overall car industry investment in the UK has been very low due to brexit, but of course it is hard to measure the effects of things like this directly. They are obviously very worried about the future of manufacturing here.

I believe a distinction needs to be made between the Brexit process and Life after Brexit. I don’t think any one doubts that Brexit uncertainty has impacted on investment in the UK automotive industry and will continue to do so until our trading relationship post Brexit is resolved. What the future will be after Brexit is the big unknown.

The whole automotive manufacturing landscape is changing, not least because of the move towards electric vehicles. Current numbers of EVs are relatively small but manufacturers are having to make investment decisions now based on how they see the market in say 5 years time. With each passing month something changes, often because of a change in government policy (here or elsewhere) and Brexit is I believe just one of the variables that has to be factored in.

I think a lot of the actual closures reported in this thread are probably more to do with the changing landscape of the automotive industry than Brexit but it is not possible to ignore the fact that the Brexit situation was ongoing at the time. I note that Tesla ruled out the UK in favour of Berlin and Brexit was reported to be a factor but might it have gone to mainland Europe in any event purely because of logistical considerations?

So much is up in the air as regards tariffs and our future trading relationships that I would not expect any manufacturers to make final decisions until after 31 December. What we are likely to hear however is a lot of noise as various sectors of industry set out what the alternative options mean for them.

AsI have said we can only speculate for now and take every forecast we hear with a pinch of salt.
 

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Repeat unverifiable opinion that flies in the face of experts and evidence, as though repeating your opinion louder and more offensively proves you are right.

Dismiss the arguments of anyone who dares to disagree with you by repeating meaningless slogans and then resort to offensive, personal insults.

You have told us everything we need to know about you.


“If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through”
You've told us everything we need to know about you. Face it, we're out.
 

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To complicate matters with facts so far on the table, since Brexit vote:

Honda Swindon closure announced
Ford South Wales closure announced
Nissan moved X-trail production out of the UK
So where is your evidence that closure were due to Brexit (even though we are still in the single market currently) rather than structural changes in the industry other than unverifiable conjecture and opinion?
Face it, we're out.
 

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The rest of the EU market is over 6 times bigger than the UK market. So Nissan would have to increase sales by over 6 times to make up for the loss of the EU. Well okay they wouldn't lose it completely, they might still get some sales there. But imagine if your future depended on sales increasing 4 or 5 fold in a couple of years, you would be looking for a new job already.

That doesn't sound like a real plan especially when Japan is already demanding the same zero tariffs on car imports as it has with the EU.
Except that they don't sell 6x as much in the EU as the UK.
 

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Except that they don't sell 6x as much in the EU as the UK.
Have you got any numbers? I can't find sales figures that detailed.

But even if it was 5x or 4x that would be a very tall order. Maybe they will be helped by other manufacturers pulling out or getting more expensive and even if they get there it's going to take years of losing money.

It's all a big if because if the government does a trade deal with Japan then their cars won't much any cheaper than ones made in Japan, and a lot of the parts will be coming form there anyway.
 

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Have you got any numbers? I can't find sales figures that detailed.

But even if it was 5x or 4x that would be a very tall order. Maybe they will be helped by other manufacturers pulling out or getting more expensive and even if they get there it's going to take years of losing money.

It's all a big if because if the government does a trade deal with Japan then their cars won't much any cheaper than ones made in Japan, and a lot of the parts will be coming form there anyway.
Nissan Sales in UK 2018

Nissan sales in Europe

As per the links above, Nissan sold over 102,000 cars in the UK in 2018. They sold 487,000 cars in the whole of Europe in 2018 inc the UK and other non EU countries such as Norway and Switzerland.

So EU to UK sales ratio is under 3.5 to 1 and declining. Also the UK is by far the biggest msrkey for them in Europe, more than Germany, Italy and France combined.
 

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Thanks. So they need to increase by at least 3.5x and do it quickly, while dealing with supply chain problems.
 

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Thanks. So they need to increase by at least 3.5x and do it quickly, while dealing with supply chain problems.
Not really as a 10% tarrif is not going to reduce their sales in the EU by that much and certainly not to zero
 

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For Sunderland it might because it will be cheaper to import cars made in Japan.
Unlikely as they would have done so across the EU when the trade deal was signed with Japan a year ago.

The biggest threat for Nissan is not Brexit, its their falling behind in EVs, weak product line-up in the US, corporate in-fighting, falling sales in Japan and lack of reach in China.
 

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Unlikely as they would have done so across the EU when the trade deal was signed with Japan a year ago.
They have. The Honda plant in the UK was most likely closed because of that deal. Some in eastern Europe went as well.
 

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They have. The Honda plant in the UK was most likely closed because of that deal. Some in eastern Europe went as well.
So what's Nissan waiting for? Their EU plants are in worse shape than their Sunderland plant which is one of their most efficient globally.
 

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It is not just the Nissan part of the partnership that is facing challenges. Renault has just reported a €141m loss compared with a €3.3bn profit a year ago - sales in the U.K. were only 59,000 (down 5%)
 

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Discussion Starter #60
It is not just the Nissan part of the partnership that is facing challenges. Renault has just reported a €141m loss compared with a €3.3bn profit a year ago - sales in the U.K. were only 59,000 (down 5%)
I suspect the ZOE and other Z.E. lineup doesn’t make money yet either. Someone said that any production line needs to make at least 100,000 units a year to break even.

Maybe in 2020.
 
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