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Hi - my switch to Octopus is due this week and I am planning to move across to Agile just as soon as they can read from my Smart meter. Like most I am looking to take advantage of the low overnight pricing to charge my E-Golf.

My charging regime on my current flat rate tariff tends to be charge to 100% --> drive for a few day until range is down to 20-30 miles --> recharge to 100% --> repeat. I normally go 3 or 4 days between charges depending on the season.

Agile will change this with 'little and often' being the most economical route against overnight pricing. However, I do have a choice as to whether to charge on a particular evening.

This got me thinking - those that have been using the tariff a while, can you see a distinct pattern for high or low rates based upon weather predictions? So for example, if very sunny or windy weather is predicted several days in advance and there is plenty of renewable energy on the grid do you see this translate into lower rates? I am wondering also if you see a particular day/night of the week that seems to be cheaper, or a timeslot that always seems to be the cheapest in the week.

A thoughts gratefully appreciated.
 

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I'll comment but from the point of view of someone with no EV and solar panels. [Also my meter and monitor has stopped transmitting half hour data for the last two weeks...]. I'm sure others will soon chip in.

Have a look at the resources provided by Zarch on this and other forums e.g. MSE, as they give historical data. As a rule the really cheap, even negative prices, have been when it's been sunny, windy and holidays/weekends.

When (a big when..) I get an EV I may even charge during the day as even if solar doesn't cover all the demand it's not too bad if the difference will be only, like today in the low 6p a unit range. If you avoid the 16.00 to 19.00 slot you should be happy enough with the pricing and from there it's just tweaking to get the lowest possible charge. It's still 9.04p a unit for me between 19.00 and 19.30 and after the low prices we've seen recently that seems a lot.:) It's down to 5.95p by 22.30.
You will probably find yourself charging more often if you wish to get the costs down, but that might even benefit your battery.
 

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Agree with @SueH - windy, sunny and weekend is the best combo for low rates - but if it's too well forecast then they'll wind the nuclear plants back and then the price doesn't drop so much!

I find myself charging a couple of hours each night to get the absolute best rate - but, as @SueH says, I'm chasing the difference between really cheap and stupidly cheap here. Prices are released at 4pm each day, however for a sneak peek you can look at the day ahead prices which are released on NordPool about midday to 1pm. This can help you decide whether to charge that afternoon prior to the 4pm price hike or leave it until the next day...if you're really dedicated.

 

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Hi - my switch to Octopus is due this week and I am planning to move across to Agile just as soon as they can read from my Smart meter. Like most I am looking to take advantage of the low overnight pricing to charge my E-Golf.

My charging regime on my current flat rate tariff tends to be charge to 100% --> drive for a few day until range is down to 20-30 miles --> recharge to 100% --> repeat. I normally go 3 or 4 days between charges depending on the season.

Agile will change this with 'little and often' being the most economical route against overnight pricing. However, I do have a choice as to whether to charge on a particular evening.

This got me thinking - those that have been using the tariff a while, can you see a distinct pattern for high or low rates based upon weather predictions? So for example, if very sunny or windy weather is predicted several days in advance and there is plenty of renewable energy on the grid do you see this translate into lower rates? I am wondering also if you see a particular day/night of the week that seems to be cheaper, or a timeslot that always seems to be the cheapest in the week.

A thoughts gratefully appreciated.
A lot of data here: Octopus Agile - Energy Stats UK

I am not on the Agile tariff yet, but from what I have been tracking so far: it is the 4-7pm peak price that it shoots up. Every other hour is lower than my current flat rate by about 40% or more.
 

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@Dominic Chapman, if you're happy with your current charging system (i.e. charging to full intermittently) then the Ohme smart charging cable will let you take advantage of dips in the Agile tariff without too much manual supervision. Ohme downloads the Agile tariff rates daily, so you just plug in the car, tell it when you want to be at 100%, and let it optimise charging to the lowest prices. I also set a maximum charging price of 5 ppkWh just to be sure.

As everyone says, though, this is just a bit of icing on the cake. I find that my Agile costs are already very significantly lower than my fixed costs were, and as long as you charge overnight you'll be fine. You can optimise the hell out of it with the Ohme cable, rate prediction and so on, the additional minor savings are fun but not significant.
 

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Thanks for the replies folks, some useful info here. @diaphon2 I was planning on getting an ohme cable to do just this. Rates look very attractive at the moment but I am sure this must be to do with reduced demand due to lockdown. I've been geeky enough to model our typical usage profile against the more expensive days on the tariff and overall it still seems to work for us. (y)
 

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Another Agile user with no exports, but a relatively high energy usage even before getting an EV. The offset in cost for me has been mind-blowing - even before COVID and the drop in energy demand the lower overall rates vs. the 4 hour peak period left me still saving a good sum of money.

Sounds like you're willing to put the effort into Agile to make it worthwhile - which is the biggest thing. Any usage you can shift your outside the 4-7 window will really pay off - more so if you time things for the cheapest periods. I personally still cook with electric during the peak window because it suits our family better, so you can still save and not penny pinch to the nth degree.

As you collect your data, you can compare your Agile usage to the Go tariff for your region too, then understand if it might make sense to switch back to Go as the overnight pricing likely creep up again with demand and you make better savings with the 4hr 5p window for your EV charging.
 

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Hi - my switch to Octopus is due this week and I am planning to move across to Agile just as soon as they can read from my Smart meter. Like most I am looking to take advantage of the low overnight pricing to charge my E-Golf.

My charging regime on my current flat rate tariff tends to be charge to 100% --> drive for a few day until range is down to 20-30 miles --> recharge to 100% --> repeat. I normally go 3 or 4 days between charges depending on the season.

Agile will change this with 'little and often' being the most economical route against overnight pricing. However, I do have a choice as to whether to charge on a particular evening.

This got me thinking - those that have been using the tariff a while, can you see a distinct pattern for high or low rates based upon weather predictions? So for example, if very sunny or windy weather is predicted several days in advance and there is plenty of renewable energy on the grid do you see this translate into lower rates? I am wondering also if you see a particular day/night of the week that seems to be cheaper, or a timeslot that always seems to be the cheapest in the week.

A thoughts gratefully appreciated.
When windy it is very low, or negative.

Prices don't always follow the wind. I arranged for some wind last Friday, which came, but the market auction did not adjust its prices. The Gods answered the call, but the markets did not. Ironic! ;)

At other times it has been 3~5p/kWh over night, occasionally up to 7p/kWh.

TBH it has been pretty reliable overnight. If you are not watching for penny-savings, then leaving it on most hours overnight will average out at so low that you're wasting your time and mine even asking!! :devilish: :LOL:

I suspect that might increase during winter, but there is no tie-in if you don't like it.
 

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EV but no solar. Pre COVID, we were achieving an average price per kWh of 11 to 12p. Over the past 3 months, we have been averaging 7 to 8p per kWh. Peak prices have also been very low. In normal times, a price of 35p/kWh can have a big impact on the average cost if the peak period cannot be avoided.
 

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Thanks for the replies folks, some useful info here. @diaphon2 I was planning on getting an ohme cable to do just this. Rates look very attractive at the moment but I am sure this must be to do with reduced demand due to lockdown. I've been geeky enough to model our typical usage profile against the more expensive days on the tariff and overall it still seems to work for us. (y)
Unfortunately I haven’t got a life and I follow the development of wind farms, particularly those offshore! So the trend in wholesale prices has been downward for the last 18 months. Gas prices are down, they are loosely linked to oil prices, but gas is about 60% of its price December 2018. Coal price and its carbon taxes are irrelevant now, there is unlikely to be coal fired electricity used in the UK Unless we have a severe winter sitting under an anticyclone. Nuclear has been turned down for the lockdown and presumably plant is being checked and overhauled.so as to be ready for winter. That leaves solar which on a really good day peaks at 8 GWh but otherwise peaks at 5 to 6 GWh in summer months. Wind varies from virtually nothing today to 15 GWh when strong winds blow from Cornwall to Orkney. The latest offshore wind farms got contracts for difference at 4p a kWh. I’m not sure how that is bought by Octopus for its agile tariff, but it is by far the cheapest electricity supplied to the grid. Some 5 GWh will be added to the wind farm fleet at that price. Bidding is taking place for windy Scotland’s waters and that should again see more cheap power with less variability coming on stream in 4 to 5 years time. All of this points to electricity staying at current prices with the grid wanting to seek load at low load times, mainly overnight but early afternoon when the sun shines at weekends. So agile is a good bet for cheap electricity with some expensive days in December and January, perhaps.
 

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The 3 day weather forecast can give a reasonable idea when agile will be cheap, but there is enough variation that it is never certain. I have found even in bad expensive weeks during the winter it was only marginally more expensive than 'Octopus Go' for me. I have quite a high daytime use which is somewhat offset by solar in the summer.
 

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The 3 day weather forecast can give a reasonable idea when agile will be cheap, but there is enough variation that it is never certain. I have found even in bad expensive weeks during the winter it was only marginally more expensive than 'Octopus Go' for me. I have quite a high daytime use which is somewhat offset by solar in the summer.
So many more factors affect wholesale electricity prices. If any of us wants to get together and try that properly, then we might as well setup a hedge fund!
 
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Generally speaking, on any given day it’s cheapest at 02:00-06:00 and again 14:30-16:00.
 
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Discussion Starter #17
Looks like there is a potential plunge, or at least low rates this Sunday, from checking the Carbon Forecast:
Carbon Intensity
View attachment 131660
Oh interesting. I've been keeping my Golf's battery as low as possible this week in anticipation of my switch to Agile which happened at midnight last night. Might just hold off topping up until Sunday!
 

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Hi - my switch to Octopus is due this week and I am planning to move across to Agile just as soon as they can read from my Smart meter. Like most I am looking to take advantage of the low overnight pricing to charge my E-Golf.

My charging regime on my current flat rate tariff tends to be charge to 100% --> drive for a few day until range is down to 20-30 miles --> recharge to 100% --> repeat. I normally go 3 or 4 days between charges depending on the season.

Agile will change this with 'little and often' being the most economical route against overnight pricing. However, I do have a choice as to whether to charge on a particular evening.

This got me thinking - those that have been using the tariff a while, can you see a distinct pattern for high or low rates based upon weather predictions? So for example, if very sunny or windy weather is predicted several days in advance and there is plenty of renewable energy on the grid do you see this translate into lower rates? I am wondering also if you see a particular day/night of the week that seems to be cheaper, or a timeslot that always seems to be the cheapest in the week.

A thoughts gratefully appreciated.
Here's a nice graphic of Agile rates over the last 18 months in my region:
131666

The minimum (which generally lands in the small hours of the morning) moves around a little, but other than the odd windy weekend is not that dramatic. The golf only has 32kwh battery, so a swing of 4p to 6p per kWh is only £1.28 vs £1.92 Slightly different if you can get in on the -10p slots, you could get paid £3.20! If you can "download" 32kwh in two hours, anyway, which of course you can't.

My strategy would be to plug in each night with a charge% limit set (maybe 70% or 80%) and then if I see tonight will be particularly cheap raise that to 100%.
 

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One warning: I'm on Agile but the meter hasn't been working for ~3 weeks now, and rectifying the issue is a pain so I have defaulted to the standard rate.

One thing I didn't mention in my earlier post is that at the moment with solar and no EV I was such a low user that it was worth my while being on a zero standing charge tariff. That is until Ebico disguised it as a minimum charge and rather annoyed me. My back of an envelope spreadsheet calculation was that I needed to get my Agile unit price to below 16p a unit to be better off paying their standing charge, and this I achieved with ease.

Most people are not in the position to have to worry about standing charges in the overall scheme of things, such is their usage, but I thought the perspective of somebody in my position might be useful to someone. Dividing a standing charge by my annual usage gives quite a high number of pence per unit! That would change with an EV of course..
 

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One warning: I'm on Agile but the meter hasn't been working for ~3 weeks now, and rectifying the issue is a pain so I have defaulted to the standard rate.

One thing I didn't mention in my earlier post is that at the moment with solar and no EV I was such a low user that it was worth my while being on a zero standing charge tariff. That is until Ebico disguised it as a minimum charge and rather annoyed me. My back of an envelope spreadsheet calculation was that I needed to get my Agile unit price to below 16p a unit to be better off paying their standing charge, and this I achieved with ease.

Most people are not in the position to have to worry about standing charges in the overall scheme of things, such is their usage, but I thought the perspective of somebody in my position might be useful to someone. Dividing a standing charge by my annual usage gives quite a high number of pence per unit! That would change with an EV of course..
Or get some solar panels, my export is offsetting my standing charge :)
 
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