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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Here are my Seven Silver Tips to any potential investor in commercial charging stations: my Summary: don't invest!
1) most people who can afford an electric car live in the suburbs or rural areas, and charge at home for less than 20p per kWh.
2) (by the way, many of those people have a driveway and domestic charging point, and some, like me, charge for literally free off my solar panels and/or for pennies at night rates)
3) most car drivers travel less than 40 miles a day, but many EVs can now cream 250 miles on one charge.
4) many of those EV drivers use a train or plane for longer business trips: partly because the company pays anyway, and anyway it's quicker.
5) most of them visit their Granny every month or two, go on holiday breaks, or have a cross-country business trip from time to time, and need a charge en-route, but this is marginal, not important, and they have other travel alternatives like fly-drive if commercial charging is too pricey
6) these longer trips requiring a charge en-route are about 10% of their annual mileage, more or less
7) that totally screws the investor model of high price electric rapid charging mega-stations, because people have other choices.
My own view is that public rapid chargers across the UK should be publicly owned and run on a social benefit cost-neutral basis, like Scotland's CPS network, or provided as an loss-leading incentive at shops and restaurants because few of them will ever make a real profit.
And also because we need a truly national UK network, in both major motorway routes and also quiet rural areas like mid-Wales, Cornwall, and Scottish Islands, both for equity and universal access.
 

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Except the Tesla chargers are full with lines which shows what will happen as other EV's start to fill the market and the chargers.

Tesla Revenue from charging is estimated at $400M with a 50% profit ratio.
 

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Public ownership of the UK EV Highway is inevitable, rational, and logical

...

and is therefore pretty much the one thing we can guarantee won't happen.
 

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Public ownership of the UK EV Highway is inevitable, rational, and logical

...

and is therefore pretty much the one thing we can guarantee won't happen.
Or exactly why you should invest, sit on the land rights/access/supplier contracts, and then wait to get bought out by the government.
 

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LEAF N-TEC 62KW
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We 100% do not want the government taking control and giving it to Ozev or some new quango NGO.
These bodies are usually run by incompetent senior civil servants who've been moved sideways or have been 'rewarded' for a lifetime of rubbish service.

There is no need to privatise the network in any case, because they can simply give Ozev the power to regulate it.
 

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only 10% of your miles per year are long trips. So 10% of all miles are long trips that may require a rapid charger. How many million miles are driven each year? That can be more than enough demand to justify investment.

And similarly - if you only need rapid chargers on a minimal number of road trips per year, that means investors can get away with high prices per kwh because you’ll be willing to pay for the convenience and getting on your way quickly, knowing your average cost is still very low if you charge at home 95% of the time. So no need to be cost neutral
 

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We 100% do not want the government taking control and giving it to Ozev or some new quango NGO.
Don’t worry, the Transport secretary will just hand over the contract to one of his mates he met down his local pub.

It will be a company setup the week before with no previous experience of EV charging.

The cost for a rapid charge will then shoot up overnight to £1.35 per kWh. You know, because that’s what petrol costs...
 

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That's when it's being paid for by the Government* directly and the public has no choice. I suspect that will be how all Government vehicles will be charged in the future, from ministerial cars via council bin lorries to the MOD's new tank contract that's being given to whoever shows the lack of taste to be Boris's next bit of squeeze (unless they actually have any military knowledge).
* I appreciate that we will ultimately pay for this via taxation, but the Government don't let us pay directly as we might choose a different supplier or just abstain.
 

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Here are my Seven Silver Tips to any potential investor in commercial charging stations: my Summary: don't invest!
1) most people who can afford an electric car live in the suburbs or rural areas, and charge at home for less than 20p per kWh.
2) (by the way, many of those people have a driveway and domestic charging point, and some, like me, charge for literally free off my solar panels and/or for pennies at night rates)
3) most car drivers travel less than 40 miles a day, but many EVs can now cream 250 miles on one charge.
4) many of those EV drivers use a train or plane for longer business trips: partly because the company pays anyway, and anyway it's quicker.
5) most of them visit their Granny every month or two, go on holiday breaks, or have a cross-country business trip from time to time, and need a charge en-route, but this is marginal, not important, and they have other travel alternatives like fly-drive if commercial charging is too pricey
6) these longer trips requiring a charge en-route are about 10% of their annual mileage, more or less
7) that totally screws the investor model of high price electric rapid charging mega-stations, because people have other choices.
My own view is that public rapid chargers across the UK should be publicly owned and run on a social benefit cost-neutral basis, like Scotland's CPS network, or provided as an loss-leading incentive at shops and restaurants because few of them will ever make a real profit.
And also because we need a truly national UK network, in both major motorway routes and also quiet rural areas like mid-Wales, Cornwall, and Scottish Islands, both for equity and universal access.
Unfortunately, 78.394% of statistics are made up on the spot.
 

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It sounds like a lot of these facts are plucked out of thin air!

1. Eventually, the people with no driveway are going to need EVs. Lamppost and workplace charging will play a role, but a lot will need a rapid to fill up.

I think the days of 5p/ kWh at home will be numbered as more people use overnight. Your 'sub 20p' sounds more realistic.

2. Only free if you forget the cost of installing PV!

3. Even less than that. 28 miles according to the RAC. But the average isn't as relevant as the days when you do a lot more. That '250 mile WLTP' car probably has closer to 100 motorway miles after a rapid charge in winter. 'How many days a year will I exceed the range of my car?' is a more useful metric.

4. Maybe some modal shift, but let's presume people who would have made ICE journeys are now making EV journeys.

5. Not convinced that we should be aiming to push people towards fly drive!

6. No idea where you get 10% from! Maybe that's based on your experience, but most people I know barely use their cars for local journeys, or commuting, but use them for medium and long-distance leisure trips. My own experience (just a sample size of one!) is that half my charging is away from home. I'll eat my hat if 90% of the UK's driven miles can be powered from home.

I see a role for regulation in ensuring coverage in hard-to-reach areas, to ensure convenient payment methods, to ensure people aren't held to ransom by closed or semi-closed networks like Ionity. But I'm not at all convinced that it should be a publicly owned utility. The likes of Instavolt et al seem perfectly capable of rolling out at pace in a commercial environment. No idea where price will end up, but the market seems to be moving towards 25-35p, rather than the Ionity end of the market.

I would far rather see half a dozen companies competing for my business on the motorway 'These services are Eezicharge, which is 5p cheaper, but I'm going to push on to Virgin Volt in 15 miles, because I get 500 bonus points if I do one more charge this month'.
 
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Since the majority of journeys are less than 40 miles, if available home charging is certainly likely to be the norm. Certainly for my own driving pattern, the range I have available covers all but a couple of trips each year. So even allowing for a holiday where charging at the B&B or hotel isn't available and I was using a public charger, I would consider the substantially higher price per Kw worth it for convenience. All I want is a simple, drive up, plug in, wave a credit card and drive off. The profit model for providers may well be linked to other facilities, food drink, possibly meeting rooms, cinema, play area, perhaps some different thinking required as to where and how. Since I suspect most longer journeys involve motorway or main arterial roads, perhaps more chargers (working) so that availability is almost guaranteed is a more pertinent question.
 

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VIN based reporting and registration.

If you have a home charger registered via the grant (so you got a discount) then your VIN is connected to a database and you're charged a premium for rapid chargers as you only need them for top ups on long trips. If you park on the street and can't easily access a home charger then you get a cheaper rate on rapids as you're more reliant on them
 

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6. No idea where you get 10% from! Maybe that's based on your experience, but most people I know barely use their cars for local journeys, or commuting, but use them for medium and long-distance leisure trips. My own experience (just a sample size of one!) is that half my charging is away from home. I'll eat my hat if 90% of the UK's driven miles can be powered from home.
I suppose it depends where you live. I'd say of the roughly 10k miles I do a year, there's probably around 5-6 journey's that exceed the range of the car, and even then only by 30-40 miles. Maybe a little more now the battery degradation has fallen off a cliff.

Most of my journeys are less than 8 miles, and a quick ask around in the office would say that most people's around here is less than 40 miles per day, almost exclusively commuting.
 

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Worth remembering that statistics in this context refers to state-istics ... that is, Disraeli was referring to "data" provided by the state for the purpose of persuading the great unwashed to fall in line. Just sayin'.
 

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I think it probably skews massively to who currently owns an EV as well.

Right now, the are great for commuting and second car/ runaround duties, and they're fine for the 'once a month I go further' crowd, but they're not such a shoe-in for motorway munching sales reps, trips to the Alps, etc.

I think I'm unusual as an EV driver (or at least I was when I first set the ball rolling 18 months ago, maybe less-so now). It's not for commuting, it's not a second car, I don't benefit from zero congestion charge, or low BIK, I (didn't) have off-street parking, I've never bought a new car in my life, and most of the places I want to go are a long way away, with very limited destination charging, often in winter! But it still works, with a bit of effort and planning.

I guess what I mean is there are horses for courses, and there are going to be plenty of people who will regularly want to blast down the motorway for 4 hours, then refuel at 500kW, and they will probably pay whatever is asked of them. I'll probably join them - I'm not going to sit at 65mph in a coat and scarf for the rest of my life, and then stop every 2 hours for a leisurely meal.

I don't think the chargepoint operators need to worry.
 
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Tesla Revenue from charging is estimated at $400M with a 50% profit ratio.
Absolutely no way that Tesla is making any money off charging. Factoring in depreciation of the expensive rapid chargers it is a loss leader for selling cars.
 

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Interesting. While as a fairly old school socialist I am all in favour of nationalised utilities, I don’t see similar enthusiasm from either our government or the opposition. I think the likelihood is very small indeed. And if it were to be the case, as others have said, investing now would be a pretty sound move.

I’ve also noticed a real increase in people who are unable to charge at home buying EVs. Especially Teslas. Whether using Superchargers or other local rapids, the sums still add up - particularly if you’re a company car driver.

I’m not a professional analyst, but a lot of people who are seem to be in favour of investment in all things renewable. It’s not necessarily a short term investment, but by 2035 I think they’ll be doing alright.
 

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I'm not so sure, I anticipate rapid chargers will get cheaper and more plentiful. People that can't charge at home will just use rapids, and maybe charge once a week as part of their weekly shop, the same way they currently fill up with petrol. It will just take a little longer.
Obviously it will be more expensive than charging at home, but places like gridserve are only 24p a kWh, and there will likely be subscription models, ie £10 a month but includes say 50kWh, £15 a month for 100kWh, like a mobile phone contract basically. (And they'll probably charge 50p a kWh if you go over your allowance like phone networks do!)
Plenty of scope for the private sector to provide and make a sustainable return.
 
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Absolutely no way that Tesla is making any money off charging
Absolutely no way that Tesla cannot be making money off charging.

But it's not our opinions that matter so much as Tesla's bottom line that saw revenues for charging explode into the $400M a year range.

No need for an MBA'er to figure it out, an eight stall station costs $250k.

Eight chargers
150kWh each.
Usage 50%
Cost per kWh $0.12
Sell price per kWh $0.31
Revenue per year at 50% utilization $1.6M

So the basic numbers and Tesla's bottom line tell us that charging is can be very lucrative.
 
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