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They'll use whatever costs less.
That'll be diesel then, for the foreseeable future.
I see Amazon are putting 18 electric vans in to service the Exeter area, while DHL are putting 14 Renault Masters on the road in Central London. Hardly setting the world on fire. Up here in the East Midlands it's 15 miles each way to get to any of the major conurbations from the nearest Amazon or DHL depot. Won't leave much range to do any actual deliveries once that mileage has been taken into consideration.
 

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Amazon have quite a few electric vans and they are always delivering using them around North Oxfordshire from the Banbury based facility. The number seems to be increasing as 2021 has progressed.
 

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British based firm Arrival are another company with a vast valuation but little in the way of products. But they have firm orders from UPS amongst others so hopefully will succeed.
 

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Amazon have quite a few electric vans and they are always delivering using them around North Oxfordshire from the Banbury based facility. The number seems to be increasing as 2021 has progressed.
Amazon have a total of 1800 Mercedes e-Vito vans ordered to service the whole of Europe presently, with 500 destined to come to the UK. So that's 1800 vans to service close to 750,000,000 people in Europe and 500 to service 65,000,000 in the UK. We are truly blessed.
Unfortunately, how the courier industry is set up, the cost in most instances is handed over to the contractor doing the "last mile" delivery. In other words Amazon, DHL, TNT etc sub contract the most expensive part of the delivey/collection process to third party suppliers who choose what vehicles to put on the roads with many variables to factor in. The high price of an electric van, even when reduced running costs are factored in means that most contractors won't be looking at anything but diesel vans for another decade at least IMO.
I've been crunching the numbers for supplying my local Amazon depot with EV's and the return on investment is negligible tbh. They aren't noted for being the best payers out there.
Looks like we'll be sticking to e-cargobikes for the foreseeable future, supplemented by diesel or Nissan E-NV200 sized vans to cover 70% of capacity.
 

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Amazon have a total of 1800 Mercedes e-Vito vans ordered to service the whole of Europe presently, with 500 destined to come to the UK. So that's 1800 vans to service close to 750,000,000 people in Europe and 500 to service 65,000,000 in the UK. We are truly blessed.
I think when talking about logistics, it’s customary to use delivery points rather than populations, we don’t have 65m delivery points in the UK.

Sure the van to delivery points ratio is small even then, and I can’t imagine a current tech electric van being viable for a rural delivery route comprising 200+ delivery points in a day covering the mileage involved, but it’s a start and I see no reason why they can’t be viable in conurbations.

Not every delivery van is linked to Amazon and their owner/operator contractor model, and the likes of Royal Mail, the supermarket delivery operations and the other big carriers will create the necessary demand for suitable vehicles in time.

Like everything in EV land, it’s still a bit too early and there isn’t the momentum just yet.

That’s it’s even being discussed and implemented in small numbers is good though.
 

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...I've been crunching the numbers for supplying my local Amazon depot with EV's and the return on investment is negligible tbh. ... Looks like we'll be sticking to e-cargobikes for the foreseeable future, supplemented by diesel or Nissan E-NV200 sized vans ...
An opportunity to sign-up Arcimoto 3-wheel Tuc-tuc sized EVs?
The Deliverator | Ultra Efficient Electric Vehicles
 

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I've seen a fair few electric vans. Remember seeing electric TNT vans a decade ago when I lived in Bristol even!

Electric vans won't make sense for every use just yet- but companies like Amazon are keen on being perceived as green, and so using EVs is part of that.
 

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Amazon have a total of 1800 Mercedes e-Vito vans ordered to service the whole of Europe presently, with 500 destined to come to the UK. So that's 1800 vans to service close to 750,000,000 people in Europe and 500 to service 65,000,000 in the UK. We are truly blessed.
Unfortunately, how the courier industry is set up, the cost in most instances is handed over to the contractor doing the "last mile" delivery. In other words Amazon, DHL, TNT etc sub contract the most expensive part of the delivey/collection process to third party suppliers who choose what vehicles to put on the roads with many variables to factor in. The high price of an electric van, even when reduced running costs are factored in means that most contractors won't be looking at anything but diesel vans for another decade at least IMO.
I've been crunching the numbers for supplying my local Amazon depot with EV's and the return on investment is negligible tbh. They aren't noted for being the best payers out there.
Looks like we'll be sticking to e-cargobikes for the foreseeable future, supplemented by diesel or Nissan E-NV200 sized vans to cover 70% of capacity.
Good luck buying a new diesel van in 2031.
 

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British based firm Arrival are another company with a vast valuation but little in the way of products. But they have firm orders from UPS amongst others so hopefully will succeed.
Looks promising but I can imagine some dirty tricks from the big boys to try and scupper the project. Safety concerns etc.

More here.

 

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I have no doubt that incentives will be put in place to ensure delivery vans and public transport moves to electric vehicles. Heard of the London ULEZ or whatever its called now.
 

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I have no doubt that incentives will be put in place to ensure delivery vans and public transport moves to electric vehicles. Heard of the London ULEZ or whatever its called now.
Not everywhere is London though is it?

10 cities around the country were granted powers to bring in Clear Air Zones a few years ago, including Derby where I work from. Apart from Bristol, all of them have reneged on their intended purpose in one way or another both before and during the pandemic.

In Derby they've been removing cycle lanes to speed up traffic flow for diesel buses as a a way of reducing emission.

Go figure.
 

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Do you not think that pressure would be put on cities to adopt clean EV public transport?
As with all things like this, the incentives will be ramped up when production is able to meet demand. BTW, by incentives, I mean additional taxes/charges.
 

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Good luck buying a new diesel van in 2031.
When I can put a Mercedes Sprinter on the road for under £300/month and it costs upwards of £800/month for an equivalent EV van then diesel will be winning out for at least the next decade, regardless of the cost of ownership. People will stay with the tried and tested for commercial fleets for as long as they can.
Sure the van to delivery points ratio is small even then, and I can’t imagine a current tech electric van being viable for a rural delivery route comprising 200+ delivery points in a day covering the mileage involved, but it’s a start and I see no reason why they can’t be viable in conurbations.
200+ deliveries per day!!
Think I've just found the new Jeff Bezos.
That would require the van to be on the road almost 24 hours a day, even in urban areas. Where do you find the time to recharge them?
An opportunity to sign-up Arcimoto 3-wheel Tuc-tuc sized EVs?
The Deliverator | Ultra Efficient Electric Vehicles
Hmmm....
They look expensive for their carrying capacity.
Only available in Los Angeles too. Bit of a distance to travel to deliver in the East Midlands.
 

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Do you not think that pressure would be put on cities to adopt clean EV public transport?
As with all things like this, the incentives will be ramped up when production is able to meet demand. BTW, by incentives, I mean additional taxes/charges.
I agrree that it will happen, just not as quickly and easily as many think.
I've been in the logistics industry for over 20 years now, running all manner of EV's during that time and the rate of take up is phenomally slow, even with incentives thrown in.
I've heard enough "green" claptrap from politicians to know that they will bow to big oil and the motoring lobby for many decades to come, unfortunately.
 

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When I can put a Mercedes Sprinter on the road for under £300/month and it costs upwards of £800/month for an equivalent EV van then diesel will be winning out for at least the next decade, regardless of the cost of ownership. People will stay with the tried and tested for commercial fleets for as long as they can...
Assuming that the legislation is in place, what do you think is going to happen after 31/12/2030? Are we going to see lots of workshops eagerly working to keep all the old vans on the road, like is seen in certain other countries with transportation in general?
 
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