Yes, it is based on recent driving. Naturally if there's a sudden change in the weather, or instead of your normal suburban commute you decide to hit the motorway it won't be very accurate, but mostly it seems to track it pretty well. I've seen my morning estimates vary between 30 miles and 50 miles (allegedly the 2012 model won't estimate above 50 miles no matter what).It shows 49 miles before you drive? How does it know how you're going to drive it beforehand? ... is it clever enough to learn your style?