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Tesla Battery day halves the price and £25,000 Tesla coming

7K views 81 replies 27 participants last post by  WonkoTheSaneUK 
#1 ·
Has the Battery day passed SpeakEV by ?

Looks very good 1/2 price batteries and a £25,000 Tesla coming. Trouble is it's 3 years away. Or is this just reverse Tesla time AKA underpromise and over deliver.

 
#2 ·
The threat of a $25,000 car is enough for other auto makers to start a countdown timer, as they know they've now got less than that to make a better car, with better infrastructure before they start haemorrhaging sales to Tesla in that price segment. $25,000 ~€21,300 makes it Zoe territory, I know what I'd chose if I was looking in a few years, which I am sure lots of folk will be.
 
#27 ·
Cybertruck is too big for Wales. An F-150 is too big and the Cybertruck prototype is larger than the Ford.

F-150 is 33 inches longer and 7.3 inches wider than a long wheelbase Transit van.


F-150 Supercrew with 6.5 foot box
  • Length: 243.7 inches
  • Height: 75.6 inches (4x2), 77.2 (4x4)
  • Width: 96.8 inches (with standard side mirrors)
  • Bed length: 78.9 inches

Transit L2 (long wheelbase)
  • Length: 210.2 Inches
  • Height: 75.66 - 92 Inches (fully laden H1 to empty H2)
  • 89.5 inches with standard mirrors
 
#14 ·
V interesting talk, well worth skimming through on youtube.

What impressed me was the scope of their improvements, right from the mining, through mfr & the recycling at the very end. There's a coherent vision here, and the drive to achieve it. Lowering the cost of batteries to around half what it is today is really going to accelerate takeup on a huge scale, not just cars, but ships, Grid backups, domestic batteries, planes, trains, you name it.

E.g take the simple way that the single connection tab on current batteries is dispensed with, and replaced by an almost continuous set of edge-tabs all folded over; this is going to hugely reduce thermal losses inside the batteries, both during driving, but especially during charging. So I think we can expect to see far faster charging on even small batteries. Today we're seeing e.g. 40 kWh batteries being limited to 50 kW, that kind of thing; Ioniq 28 kWh charging at around 70 kW is exceptionally fast! But I think we'll see these new batteries charging a 50 kWh at maybe 250 kW. Leafgate thermal problems are going to be a thing of the past and just a bad memory.

Even their new way of extracting Lithium is impressive, assuming it scales up to industrial rates. Simply take Lithium-rich clay, mix with salty water & out comes the useable Lithium compound, at least that's how it looked to me. Sure there's need to be some purification etc. Elon says it's important for low cost to have the battery production v close to the source of the raw materials, and that makes sense to me. Doesn't bode well for the new Lithium mine dev't in Cornwall though, unless they can do a similar extraction & maybe source Nickel locally?
 
#15 · (Edited)
Thermal management will be a much smaller issue than today, leading to cheaper cars.

I like the idea of making the battery a structural component too. And the reduction in wasteful manufacturing processes was just outstanding, I wish more manufacturers took the time to do this sort of thing.

Still, it wasn't clear what they were measuring the improvements against tho. Per cell, per pack, per kg?

Elon, not looking his best and still can't just let the expert in the room talk without interrupting. Also, the Plaid thing was clearly a jab at Lucid...
 
#23 ·
According to Monroe the Model 3 has something like a 30% margin. So in theory Tesla could sell at a lot less than they do. But they re invest all this in design/development and factories. Rumours are than the Shanghai plant has a lot better margin than that.
 
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#31 ·
Trouble is it's 3 years in Tesla Time. A Tesla year is longer than a normal year. :)
Yes Indeed. And a lot can happen in three years. I get the feeling that Tesla are not promising tight schedules any more because of the flak they get. Shanghai factory came in quicker and the volume of cars and capacity was understated by a very large margin. I hope this is true for the new batteries and lower cost cars.
 
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#37 ·
It's interesting that the Tesla share price has dropped following battery day (so I've picked up another one).
 
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#42 ·
I mentioned this, anyway the test was not 56mph average speed, it's was a 56mph max constant speed, which happens to give an average speed too due to short entry exit to the motorway. If you like driving being tailgated by artic lorries, and have them overtake you 1-2 mph faster, good luck to you, you will have your range. I want 200 miles sitting in the middle lane @ 70.
 
#46 ·
If Elon says 3 years $25k it probably means 5 years $28k, plus another year or two to get to the country you actually live in and get down the waiting list.

I'd like to see Tesla actually have a low end car in a few years with maybe only 150-190 mile range, pared down build quality and software, none of the fancy features, not particularly fast. I think they could get that for $20k, persuade government to subsidize it by another $8k, and sell it for $12k. I think those would sell really, really well and really help get an electric car into the range of affordability for most people.

But that does NOT seem to be the direction that they are going in at all. Maybe they are concerned about the effect it would have on the brand overall, i.e. such a car might limit their ability to sell $40k and $100k cars.

Perhaps they will have more of a look at this idea in 5-10 years when they are no longer supply limited. Perhaps they could sell it under a different brand name.
 
#49 ·
I think they will leave the basic low end BEV's for the Chinese , Eastern European , and maybe Ford and GM. They wont get much below $25k because they have no plans to make their profits from servicing, parts and finance.

I can see Tesla's being once in 10 year car purchase, because there will be little reason to change, so people will stretch themselves over a longer timeline. About 7 years is the longest unsecured loans at good rates in the UK.
 
#65 ·
There's some impressive mental gymnastics going on here. The reality is that the $35k car is only there so Elon can say he met his promise. In reality, there are practically none sold, and Tesla really don't want you to buy one. They go to great lengths to stop you from buying one.

There's absolutely nothing to suggest that the promise of a $25k car will be any different. In reality, it'll be a $28k+ car for all practical purposes.
 
#67 ·
Yeah sure. They never deliver anything and are about to go bankwupt. The battery day announcement was all lies and Elon is a secret member of the Illumanati. Whatever makes you happy. Meanwhile in the real world more Teslas are being bought than all other BEVs combined outside China and increasing exponentially.
 
#76 ·
That's precisely the reaction I expected from Firetrax. I make a reasonable statement based on the evidence of the past, and he twists it around, adding literally nothing to the discussion, and failing to acknowledge the point. Hopefully the "ignore" function works and I can filter out his hyperbole henceforth.

I'm looking forward to revisting this thread in a few years to see where we really are.
 
#78 ·
We won't see a car we can purchase for $25k in 2025.

What we will see is a car that cost Tesla < $25k to make, which is self-driving, and can be booked for use via the Tesla Network.

This could be a base-level RWD Model 3 with the new cells and body revisions mentioned above.
 
#79 ·
They have said nowhere that they will abandon the vehicle sales model at any level, what they have said about Robotax,i is that they will retain about 1/3rd of the profits from every customer vehicle. This makes it a pure profit software play, without capital risk, as , almost like a franchise, the customer is buying the vehicle @ $25k, so providing the all capital, but to be part of the Tesla Robotaxi network, must pay Tesla 1/3rd of the fare.

Tesla has no capital costs for the Robotaxi fleet and no running costs, yet receives 33% of the revenue.

Absolute genius. Reminds me of Dominoes Pizza franchise, they have no capital risk either, all risk is on the franchisee, they make money selling you the stock, day in, day out.
 
#81 ·
I don't doubt in any way Tesla's ability to produce the $25000 car in the timescales they say which could still be sold at a profit. I do doubt that will be the price they need to sell it at unless other manufacturers catch up and apply some pressure. Things are moving in the right direction with the VW-ID3 and 4, E-208 and E-2008, and even the Corsa-E but Tesla will continue to price high while they can get away with it and understandably so.
 
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