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Discussion Starter #803
Well the underlying numbers are far more interesting:
  • EBITDA is positive at $370M
  • Operating cash flow is positive at $614M (apparently this is more important with growth companies)
  • $5Bn cash on hand
  • Automotive is making the most money - services and energy bring their GP down to 14.5%
  • Operating costs are surprisingly stable, despite production increasing by 50%
So they need to shift more metal. This shouldn't be a problem once the Chinese gigafactory comes on line.

If they can maintain the current cash burn (positive) they should have little trouble getting to Model Y production where the real money is.
 

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I remain astonished at the share price behaviour and think it is best I now avoid trying to pick equities based on logical business practice. I am eating a hat sandwich.

I am going to go practice my primal grunts for the soon-to-come time when that will become useful in debates.
 

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I remain astonished at the share price behaviour and think it is best I now avoid trying to pick equities based on logical business practice. I am eating a hat sandwich.

I am going to go practice my primal grunts for the soon-to-come time when that will become useful in debates.
Assume I missed a conversation. What are you talking about?
 

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Along with the piling up of dead bodies and lawsuits, U.S. watchdog organisations will I predict have a far greater impact on the stock than anything Musk invents while stoned one evening (e.g. Tesla Insurance, notable only for its absence from the discussion yesterday).

Thursday July 25, 2019 "The Center for Auto Safety and Consumer Watchdog today renewed their call to the Federal Trade Commission to investigate dangerously misleading and deceptive practices and representations of Tesla Motors, Inc. regarding the safety and capabilities of its Autopilot feature." https://www.autosafety.org

There is just so much of the company's value hung from this particular half baked fiction.
 

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Assume I missed a conversation. What are you talking about?
 

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How much (if any) impact on the latest $400m loss does the Chinese factory make?
Not much.

Spending capital to purchase assets - like a new factory - doesn't directly increase losses. Whatever was spent on the factory doesn't drop into the profit&loss as a cost. Instead, the spend goes on the balance sheet as an asset and the asset is depreciated over whatever its expected lifetime is. That depreciation - in the case of a building, perhaps 2% of its value - is what gets charged to the profit & loss.
 

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Discussion Starter #810
However it does affect free cash flow, which is the real issue here. Hence the comment about $5Bn in the bank before going into Model Y production and Gigafactory expansion in Europe.

Shame they won't look at the UK for this for the obvious reason. We could have cleaned up.
 

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However it does affect free cash flow, which is the real issue here. Hence the comment about $5Bn in the bank before going into Model Y production and Gigafactory expansion in Europe.

Shame they won't look at the UK for this for the obvious reason. We could have cleaned up.
Boris might be on their case. He made some very good promises on EVs and battery production yesterday. Let's see what happens.
 

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Boris might be on their case. He made some very good promises on EVs and battery production yesterday. Let's see what happens.
Hmm, judging by his past record on promises, I imagine very little, interspersed with long, made-up words and a lot of finger prodding.
 

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$8bn loss in past 7 months.

Awwwww.

Obviously it is only a 'loss' when the short is sold/paid and the value crystallised. Looks like they are holding the short positions.

I am astonished at where Tesla is, in terms of capitalisation value. It's the same value as Fiat, PSA and Ford combined, but with approx 1/10th~1/20th of the production, turnover and staff.

Obviously I was utterly wrong on its share value continuing downwards, but to go up this much is extreme. Is there any logical rationale for this valuation?

Sentiment goes a long way, but x10?... Out of interest what is the ratio of institutional versus private shareholding?
 

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@donald I agree that Tesla are likely way overvalued, hence the reason shorts exist in such numbers.

Presumably with over 20% of the shares being held by shorts this artificially restricts supply so the share price can go up through unsatisfied demand?

I do feel a warm glow inside when they get a sore arse though - schadenfreude methinks.

What they do is akin to taking out a mortgage and investing it in the markets - there you are relying on a rise (rather than a loss with shorting) to pay off your creditor and make some profit.

Who is to say it's not sensible - any investment is a gamble after all.
 

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@donald I agree that Tesla are likely way overvalued, hence the reason shorts exist in such numbers.

Presumably with over 20% of the shares being held by shorts this artificially restricts supply so the share price can go up through unsatisfied demand?

I do feel a warm glow inside when they get a sore arse though - schadenfreude methinks.

What they do is akin to taking out a mortgage and investing it in the markets - there you are relying on a rise (rather than a loss with shorting) to pay off your creditor and make some profit.

Who is to say it's not sensible - any investment is a gamble after all.
Speculating is a gamble, investing is a risk.
 
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