Speak EV - Electric Car Forums banner

821 - 840 of 842 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,769 Posts
Tesla have a huge advantage in thier locked in battery supply.
If other manufacterers push hard it only helps Tesla.
They cant compete and if they try it will push up the battery price helping tesla compete by shining the spotlight on EVs.

I cant see anyone except the CATLs and LGCHEMs off this world slip past Tesla.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,400 Posts
Obviously it is only a 'loss' when the short is sold/paid and the value crystallised. Looks like they are holding the short positions.

I am astonished at where Tesla is, in terms of capitalisation value. It's the same value as Fiat, PSA and Ford combined, but with approx 1/10th~1/20th of the production, turnover and staff.

Obviously I was utterly wrong on its share value continuing downwards, but to go up this much is extreme. Is there any logical rationale for this valuation?

Sentiment goes a long way, but x10?... Out of interest what is the ratio of institutional versus private shareholding?
In my humble option, the following factors are relevant:

* Fiat, PSA and Ford are (mostly) just coachbuilders. They integrate stuff from other manufacturers into a nice shell. They hand large chunks of profit over to these manufacturers (which Tesla keeps in house). They make a significant % of their profit by providing finance for their customers, and fixing their own products when they go wrong. They are not agile and have heavy investments in ICE infrastructure clamped to both feet. As we have seen, they are also very exposed to changes in buying habits (i.e. diesel falling out of favour) and green legislation.

* Tesla products are "hot" in the market - all the kids want one, and there seems to be plenty of demand

* Infrastructure - GF3 comes online in a massive market, mostly eliminating exposure to Trump's trade war; GF4 approved, ever-increasing numbers of Superchargers and destination chargers...

* Tesla has diversified into cleantech growth areas which will soon be the next "oil rush", including something which 10 years ago, nobody really expected would have any value at all, which is...

* The battery business.

Of course, there is also Autopilot. When they crack this, the sky willl be the limit.
 

·
I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
Joined
·
24,045 Posts
In my humble option, the following factors are relevant:

* Fiat, PSA and Ford are (mostly) just coachbuilders. They integrate stuff from other manufacturers into a nice shell. They hand large chunks of profit over to these manufacturers (which Tesla keeps in house). They make a significant % of their profit by providing finance for their customers, and fixing their own products when they go wrong. They are not agile and have heavy investments in ICE infrastructure clamped to both feet. As we have seen, they are also very exposed to changes in buying habits (i.e. diesel falling out of favour) and green legislation.

* Tesla products are "hot" in the market - all the kids want one, and there seems to be plenty of demand

* Infrastructure - GF3 comes online in a massive market, mostly eliminating exposure to Trump's trade war; GF4 approved, ever-increasing numbers of Superchargers and destination chargers...

* Tesla has diversified into cleantech growth areas which will soon be the next "oil rush", including something which 10 years ago, nobody really expected would have any value at all, which is...

* The battery business.

Of course, there is also Autopilot. When they crack this, the sky willl be the limit.
None of this justifies such a high capitalisation today. That capitalisation value is equivalent to replacing every single car and light truck sale on the planet for one year, and making $2,000 profit on each. At the moment their sales are less than a half of one percent.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,255 Posts
None of this justifies such a high capitalisation today. That capitalisation value is equivalent to replacing every single car and light truck sale on the planet for one year, and making $2,000 profit on each. At the moment their sales are less than a half of one percent.
Is it right to value Tesla as a car company and apply car company valuation standards?

Currently, Tesla seems to have as much potential as Apple back in 2009. Whereas Fiat/PSA/Ford seems akin to Nokia in 2009.


But having said that, I've recently sold all my shares. So I'll need to take a short position on Tesla to make their stock prices go down. Because shorting a stock is all about personal gain isn't it ;)
(not taking a poke at you, Donald. Was a genuine question)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,400 Posts
Is it right to value Tesla as a car company and apply car company valuation standards?

Currently, Tesla seems to have as much potential as Apple back in 2009. Whereas Fiat/PSA/Ford seems akin to Nokia in 2009.


But having said that, I've recently sold all my shares. So I'll need to take a short position on Tesla to make their stock prices go down. Because shorting a stock is all about personal gain isn't it ;)
(not taking a poke at you, Donald. Was a genuine question)
Essentially this is my point - they should not be valued as a car company. If the automotive business stopped overnight, they would still have a massive, high-margin energy market to keep them busy.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
120 Posts
None of this justifies such a high capitalisation today. That capitalisation value is equivalent to replacing every single car and light truck sale on the planet for one year, and making $2,000 profit on each. At the moment their sales are less than a half of one percent.
I think you may be mixing up earnings with enterprise value.
 

·
I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
Joined
·
24,045 Posts
I think you may be mixing up earnings with enterprise value.
Not at all, I am saying that it is a fiction if the enterprise value exceeds the profit a company can make in its foreseeable lifetime.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
583 Posts
But do you include data and patents in your valuation. You could say Google is only worth a couple of billion in assets as it has very little else. the speakers and phones don't draw in much real revenue and their IT assets would devalue rapidly. But their data, all the data about just about any "connected" human on the planet is almost priceless. I don't feel that Tesla have in any way yet started to fully benefit from the driving data or battery research. If either of those potentials do fully come to fruition then you could almost ignore the manufacture of vehicles completely as those technologies alone would be insane.
I do agree that the stocks are currently too high for what the company currently has and there's no hard evidence that things will progress far enough to justify the price. but my shares are based on a gamble that they will achieve a fully marketable (say level 4) driving neural nets and or produce some next gen battery tech such as the "glass" battery or other solid state/hybrid battery technology. But I'm very happy that other people have either blindly invested because they Like Tesla or have a similar expectation, as I'm currently up quite a lot ;)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
120 Posts
Not at all, I am saying that it is a fiction if the enterprise value exceeds the profit a company can make in its foreseeable lifetime.
I think I understand what you are saying but I don't agree with your illustration of saying that the market cap can only be justified by Tesla "replacing every single car and light truck sale on the planet for one year". Toyota's market cap is double that of Tesla, so based on your thinking that can only be justified if Toyota replace every single car and light truck on the planet with 2 vehicles. Market cap and earnings are totally different.
 

·
Chartered Engineer
Joined
·
1,848 Posts
I think I understand what you are saying but I don't agree with your illustration of saying that the market cap can only be justified by Tesla "replacing every single car and light truck sale on the planet for one year". Toyota's market cap is double that of Tesla, so based on your thinking that can only be justified if Toyota replace every single car and light truck on the planet with 2 vehicles. Market cap and earnings are totally different.
I had a listen to an interview with Catherine Wood of Ark Invest on how they saw Tesla while the share price was collapsing and it was quite interesting - according to their models even their bear case see's Tesla's share price rising to $700 over the next few years. Ark is atypical in their view although others are jumping on the bandwagon following the recent rise!

One big factor for Tesla compared to traditional automakers is that their car production volume is growing at around 50% year on year - this of course is irrelevant if only looking a month or two ahead which is typical for the stock analysts.

Interesting times ahead.
 

·
I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
Joined
·
24,045 Posts
But do you include data and patents in your valuation.
It's not for me to determine the 'intangible assets' but if those have been evaluated then I would take those into account, yes. Not seen them, though. I am not a mind-reader.

You could say Google is only worth a couple of billion in assets as it has very little else.
Yes, I would.

But their data, all the data about just about any "connected" human on the planet is almost priceless.
That may be so, again I have not seen their declared intangibles. But that data is different to the data Tesla have. Tesla have stuff relevant to their products, so can only be capitalised through selling cars. At least, unless they start selling something else.

I don't feel that Tesla have in any way yet started to fully benefit from the driving data or battery research. If either of those potentials do fully come to fruition then you could almost ignore the manufacture of vehicles completely as those technologies alone would be insane.
Maybe so. I look forward to them setting up a divisional subsidiary/IPO raising more money to become a battery manufacturer/other. Right now, they can only be assessed as a car manufacturer because they aren't selling anything else, nor have plans to do anything else.

... my shares are based on a gamble that they will achieve a fully marketable (say level 4) driving neural nets and or produce some next gen battery tech such as the "glass" battery or other solid state/hybrid battery technology. But I'm very happy that other people have either blindly invested because they Like Tesla or have a similar expectation, as I'm currently up quite a lot ;)
I wish you well.

I just know if I bought now (or whenever) the price would plummet!! Seems to be my luck with shares these days.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,737 Posts
I just know if I bought now (or whenever) the price would plummet!! Seems to be my luck with shares these days.
@donald , ok hold off buying for now, we will all short some, then you can buy and we can test the hypothesis?

Anyone in?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,907 Posts
Maybe so. I look forward to them setting up a divisional subsidiary/IPO raising more money to become a battery manufacturer/other. Right now, they can only be assessed as a car manufacturer because they aren't selling anything else, nor have plans to do anything else.
Apart from solar panels, home batteries, and utility batteries.
 

·
I'm not crazy, the attack has begun.
Joined
·
24,045 Posts
I am surprised these other products were sold from within the same corporate entity? Are you sure?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,894 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
120 Posts
I had a listen to an interview with Catherine Wood of Ark Invest on how they saw Tesla while the share price was collapsing and it was quite interesting - according to their models even their bear case see's Tesla's share price rising to $700 over the next few years. Ark is atypical in their view although others are jumping on the bandwagon following the recent rise!
One big factor for Tesla compared to traditional automakers is that their car production volume is growing at around 50% year on year - this of course is irrelevant if only looking a month or two ahead which is typical for the stock analysts.
Interesting times ahead.
I saw that. Last March I did my own projections based on my estimates of revenue, profit % etc etc for each of the 3 factories (at the time 1 was built and 2 were yet to be built) and my projected price was $692. I steadily bought Tesla shares in small amounts throughout the year. I also tuned in to the Tesla quarterly earnings calls and took notes which tested my assumptions. So when I heard her saying $700 was her bear case I was very comforted! Obviously I didn't anticipate that the rise over the last 3 months would be so amazing.
 
821 - 840 of 842 Posts
Top