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In light of today's news we've been thinking about what stands in the way between us right now and making the 2030 ban a reality.

We think the biggest barriers are:
  • Reducing the price of EVs
  • Improving EVs ranges
  • Developing the charging infrastructure
  • Changing drivers' mindsets

Interested to hear if you agree/disagree or what other barriers you think we need to overcome
Ten years ago the Leaf was the only EV available. It cost 拢31,000 and went 73 miles according to the EPA. Ten years is a long way off, and we are only taking about new cars, not second hand.

Yes, buying a new car may be more expensive from 2030. That's just a reality. It will also be worth more when you sell it. Hopefully it means less new cars are sold overall, and that we collectively maintain and keep them for longer.
 
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Zoe GT Line 2020
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Doesn't help that the best selling manufacturer in the UK has no BEVs for sale here yet, and the only one definitely announced is a high end "specialist" car, the electric Focus still at least a couple of years away. The seem to prefer to promote "Mild Hybrids" which seem to be the equivalent of adding an elastic band to a bicycle.
 

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I think that Changing drivers鈥 mindsets is the one that needs to be top of this list. Reading through some of the responses in this thread, even some EV drivers need some persuasion.

Seven years ago, plug-in sales in Norway were around 12%, similar to where we are now. Last month they were close to 80%, with almost 60% full BEV. Norway shows how transition can be done, but also shows the level of investment and education is required. There are still lots of fuel stations in Norway, but they have diversified and many also have rapid chargers on the forecourt. People will begin to change when they see others successfully running EV and more so if the change makes financial sense.

Good link there.
I am right to say Norway has incentivized their transition rather than ban stuff?

I do feel we in the UK will need to set a date to force progress and that means the biggest obstacle will be getting the details inline with what they want achieved.
What we all want is a positive step to reducing fossil fuel use and a steady decline from then on.
Of course we want now but if these were normal times I suspect fossil sales would still be going up.
 

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All of your EV objections are like the debunked "less light", "slower to start", "unnatural frequencies", "don't work with my dimmers", "don't work with my fittings" type of arguments. Whilst all had a degree of truth they are all now old hat, people have moved on and accepted the compromises all be it with some accomodation equivalent to the BMW i8 projecting a false V12 sound.
and then when the ban did come in, shops started selling halogen bulbs that were barely any more efficient but were cheaper, worked with dimmers, etc - oh, a bit like "mild hybrids" or a PHEV that doesn't get plugged in.

I embraced CFLs and ended up with a small stockpile from the freebies that were handed out, because all my bulbs had been replaced already. Maybe the same will happen with EVs and I'll end up with a pile of free electrons in my garden?
 

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A couple of the obstacles will be at the cheap end of the market and the specialist end. There are quite a lot of consumers who are content to spend minimal money on a Dacia or far East car and for that money they get a reasonably appointed car with 400 miles range. Making something comparable for the price with 200 miles of range is a long way off. Batteries still have to improve to enable the smallest of cars to have 200 miles of range. Towing is also going to be a challenge, even if cars are certified to tow a caravans weight, the reduction of range will be dramatic, not everyone is going to be able to afford a Model X, Cybertruck or equivalent. There are quite a few folk who's summer holiday involves towing a caravan for considerable distances. Most rapid chargers would require the user to park the caravan and un-couple it from the car before you could even get to the charger.

Getting sufficient electricity supplies to motorway service stations for huge arrays of chargers is going to require massive investment. The 拢1.3bn the government has allocated for all charging infrastructure will be way short of the mark. Then there are the requirements for trucks!
 

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The caravan issue is quite a big one. Adding a skateboard of batteries to a caravan and a motor to reduce the effort required to move the caravan might be one solution. My neighbour's caravan can already move itself at slow speeds so it doesn't seem impossible to add a bigger motor to couple with the towing car.

I also think emergency service vehicles are another area of issues. They can't just stop for an hour to charge up. I can see them having an exemption for a lot longer.
 

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Zoe GT Line 2020
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The charging infrastructure is the obvious problem, complicated by the fact that it is in fact a few different problems.

1) "Home" charging for those without drives - on street charging is one option, but wouldn't it be better to have rapid charging available where people park up regularly for an hour or so, such as supermarkets, or workplace and train station slower charging for commuters?
2) Motorway charging for long journeys.- this HAS to be reliable so the need to plan journeys is removed. Most people won't mind stopping for 45 minutes at services if they can be sure that if they pull off the motorway, or trunk road, there will be a working, available charger. "Normal" people don't want to have to use an app to find a charger 5 miles off thier route in an unsheltered corner of a car park with no facilties.
3) Top up charging - my normal 80 mile round trip commute is fine, as are long journeys (assuming a reliable network of motorway chargers) - but what if I go to visit someone 90 miles away? I need the equivalent of a roadside garage where I can pull over - unplanned - for a quick top up just so I can confidently complete the journey.
 

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A couple of the obstacles will be at the cheap end of the market and the specialist end. There are quite a lot of consumers who are content to spend minimal money on a Dacia or far East car and for that money they get a reasonably appointed car with 400 miles range. Making something comparable for the price with 200 miles of range is a long way off. Batteries still have to improve to enable the smallest of cars to have 200 miles of range. Towing is also going to be a challenge, even if cars are certified to tow a caravans weight, the reduction of range will be dramatic, not everyone is going to be able to afford a Model X, Cybertruck or equivalent. There are quite a few folk who's summer holiday involves towing a caravan for considerable distances. Most rapid chargers would require the user to park the caravan and un-couple it from the car before you could even get to the charger.

Getting sufficient electricity supplies to motorway service stations for huge arrays of chargers is going to require massive investment. The 拢1.3bn the government has allocated for all charging infrastructure will be way short of the mark. Then there are the requirements for trucks!
The en route charging infrastructure is so difficult to know how it will pan out. And of course that is where Tesla score heavily. It is part of their business model, exclusive to their customers and provides data directly associated with their business. The bigger the batteries in their cars the less demand on their network of chargers would seem to apply for the UK. Might not prove to be the case but at least they will see how things are for themselves.

Everybody else and the government can only keep guessing.
 

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I think that you could be correct there. But not over ICE refuelling difficulties. There will still be a large fleet of ICE cars that will need fuel for a number of years after 2030. You will have noticed the move by BP and Shell into the EV Rapid charging area using existing forecourts, and that will gradually take over the dwindling liquid fuel pumps over the years as they turn into charging hubs. But for sure, petrol sales will still be huge for a long time until the fleet of ICE cars are scrapped. Which will be tens of years after new sales are stopped.

Existing petrol stations, that are being gradually converted to EV hubs over a number of years as more and more Rapids are installed to replace removed liquid pumps, would also be keen to sell convenience food items at corner shop prices as the customers would now be 'dwelling' longer than their previous ICE car owners. I see them installing lounge areas with wifi to capture the posh coffee trade.

That kind of urban hub would also be ideal for people with no drive parking and charging. The nightly aggravation to find a vacant lamppost charger would be a thing of the past. And as cars will have longer ranges and there will be faster Rapids by then a single 20 minute stop once a week could be enough for the five days commute. And the dwindling petrol sales forecourts would turn into highly profitable corner shops and Costa coffee n croissant dens alongside the EV charging. The beauty of that would be that the gradual shift from one fuel sale to the other could be managed as demand changes over time. And as they already own the real estate in prime positions the cost of conversion would be minimal.
My thoughts exactly, I think this is exactly what will happen. And for this reason the problem of on-street charging will become a non-issue.
 

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The caravan issue is quite a big one. Adding a skateboard of batteries to a caravan and a motor to reduce the effort required to move the caravan might be one solution. My neighbour's caravan can already move itself at slow speeds so it doesn't seem impossible to add a bigger motor to couple with the towing car.

I also think emergency service vehicles are another area of issues. They can't just stop for an hour to charge up. I can see them having an exemption for a lot longer.
鈥淎dding a motor and batteries to a caravan鈥 - good idea. It鈥檚 called a motorhome.
 

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1) "Home" charging for those without drives - on street charging is one option, but wouldn't it be better to have rapid charging available where people park up regularly for an hour or so, such as supermarkets, or workplace and train station slower charging for commuters?
Would you want to buy an EV from someone who has only ever charged it on rapid chargers? That poor battery!
 

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Just read the reader comments in this article from the Daily Telegraph and you'll get a sense of the level of "Ludditism" out there...
Although this is firmly tongue in cheek, it's depressingly accurate in some ways:
 

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meanwhile, in other news, a chinese container ship brings cheap christmas lights to UK garden centres, and pushes enough pollutants into the atmosphere to completely negate the whole of the UKs private car fleet going electric and causing poorer people to be transport dependant on a reducing public transport system that prevents them from getting food and starving to death.
 

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Converting lamp posts into charging stations is pie in the sky given that these are only cabled to carry the lighting loads. It's a bit like someone suggesting you connect your cooker into the 5 amp lighting circuit.
You know they exist and work? They are quite suitable for an overnight charge, many car are parked for 12 hours or more and 5.5kW will add 200 miles or more. Not many people do that mileage a day...

 
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I am right to say Norway has incentivized their transition rather than ban stuff?
Norway is a really bad example as they have massively punative taxes on cars which doubles the cost of some. This meant they could make EVs very popular simply through changes to that.

Most countries can't do that, on a 拢20K car in UK there is less tax than the 拢3K PICG! The first year road tax increases cost of high emission cars, but not a typical 拢20K one.
 

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Zoe GT Line 2020
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Would you want to buy an EV from someone who has only ever charged it on rapid chargers? That poor battery!
Well, that's another barrier to uptake then. Some people might only be able to rapid charge. And, at least in my experience, the dealer didn't mention avoiding rapid charge to me, and I didn't notice anything in the manual (which most drivers won't read anyway)

If drivers need to research on internet forums before buying an EV that's going to put most of them off!
 

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You know they exist and work? They are quite suitable for an overnight charge, many car are parked for 12 hours or more and 5.5kW will add 200 miles or more. Not many people do that mileage a day...

I never understand why people think Ubitricity is a fantasy.

I've used one of their posts and they're great for overnight charging.
 

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It's amazing how many people here apply today's context to a situation 10 years from now. That's not how innovation works.

  • Battery costs are coming down and the investment in battery research has gone up dramatically. New battery chemistries are being brought to market as we speak. Chinese model 3 is shipped to Europe with LFMP batteries that cost $56 / kWh
  • We have not even begun to see the effects of economies of scale
  • There is almost zero competition in the EV market because manufacturers sell everything they can make at inflated prices
  • Only now are there concerted efforts coming into effect by governments to begin the transition to net zero
So in 10 years from now new EVs
  • WILL have a battery pack with a density that is insanely higher than 200 Wh / kilogram
  • WILL therefore weigh considerably less than today's EVs
  • WILL be able to charge to 100% (forget about 80) in 15 minutes or less
  • WILL have a true motorway range of 500 km or more
  • WILL be able to tow a caravan and MIGHT be able to have an extra battery pack in the caravan that feeds into the car's charging port for extra range
  • WILL LIKELY be able to charge through induction chargers that are built into parking spaces in streets, shopping malls, railway stations etc. as well as slow onstreet chargers for overnight charging
  • WILL have batteries that last a lifetime
  • WILL be almost as cheap as / cheaper than comparable ICE cars
We shot a man to the moon in 7 years for love's sake. With 60 year old technology. We have already done the hard work, which is proving that we don't need fossil fuels at all for most forms of transport. The rest is just research, engineering, money and political courage.
 

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The rest is just research, engineering, money and political courage.
And this is the bit I'm skeptical of, in the UK at least. Some of the things in your list we can benefit from in the UK because of effort in other countries or in the private sector without UK Government investment, so that's fair enough. But some of them will require Government subsidy or incentives, at least in the early stages. Particularly on street charing, inductive charging, etc. I don't believe that will happen in the UK under this Government.

It's all well and good saying "there'll be no ICE cars from 2030", but if they don't put money behind it then it's meaningless words. The tiny investment announced so far is a drop in the ocean.
 
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