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I'm looking at buying one of the remaining 1st Editions which is being offered for £29250, which seems like a good deal, but if it's only going to be worth £17k in 3 years then it will have cost £12k to own the car for 3 years, which seems expensive compared to lease deals I've had for cars of similar values.
 

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There's a matter of supply and demand.

EV residual values are holding up very strongly because of demand right now. We bought a 2.5 year old Leaf (with 0% finance, free servicing, warranty), drove it for 19 months and doubled the mileage on it, then sold it to a trader for £350 less than we'd paid for it. After more than a year of ownership, I had WBAC offer 89% of the new price I paid for my model 3.

The demand for used EVs will increase I think - as the world becomes more EV centric and plenty of people can't afford to buy a new EV then demand for used ones will be strong, especially smaller ones that will play "second car" role in 2-car families.

However, there are also a lot of new ID3 kicking around dealer forecourts right at the moment, with thousands off list price. Same for the honda e, the corsa-e, etc. Some of this is because people are not prepared to buy a new EV, so there's a good chance that picking up one of these deals will prove quite depreciation-proof. As another example, a friend of mine bought a Leaf 40 n-Connecta new (pre-reg) in february for £21.5k. Almost a year on and it's still work £19.5-20.5k in the used market.

3 years is harder to call of course, but I think that high teens is likely a good bet.
 

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Alessandro Giuseppe Antonio Anastasio Volta
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1st Editions which is being offered for £29250, which seems like a good deal,
That is a good deal,
I think a 3 year old car will be reliably worth half of what you paid for but may well be more depending on market conditions at the time but you can use a working assumption of a worst case scenario of 50% after 3 years. for most cars.
 

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Kia Soul EV 2020
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I'm looking at buying one of the remaining 1st Editions which is being offered for £29250, which seems like a good deal, but if it's only going to be worth £17k in 3 years then it will have cost £12k to own the car for 3 years, which seems expensive compared to lease deals I've had for cars of similar values.
Well, PCP's will estimate the low end of value at the end of the term. Depending on the condition of the car, you should be able to sell it privately.

For example, my GTE was initially on PCP with a 12k GMFV. I managed to part exchange it for £13k one year after the term. In a private sale, I would have been able to ask for £14k. Obviously, that is not a guarantee of any residual value.
 

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ID3 1st & e-Golf
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It's all a guess, but £10k off the new price has to help reduce your losses.
No one knows how quickly the price of new EVs will come down, that's what will affect the users prices. If you can buy a new ID3 for £20k in 2-3 years time then the depreciation will be steep. If they are still £30k+ then it will most likely be a cheapish car, especially when you take the reduced running costs into consideration.
 

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ID3 1st Edition in Glacier White
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This is quite a complex question.
1. How much will battery technology move on in 3 to 4 years? Will new cars have much greater range and lighter batteries with these ID3s seeming dated hence depreciating more?
2. Will EV prices drop more towards ICE prices as they become more mainstream? (Yes)
3. Certainly dealers have struggled to offload ID3s I doubt they will give you top dollar in 3 years.
I’m personally unsure whether I will buy out my PCP because I think the depreciation risk might be too high.
 

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VW ID.3 Worst Edition & Tesla M3 LR
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This is quite a complex question.
1. How much will battery technology move on in 3 to 4 years? Will new cars have much greater range and lighter batteries with these ID3s seeming dated hence depreciating more?
2. Will EV prices drop more towards ICE prices as they become more mainstream? (Yes)
3. Certainly dealers have struggled to offload ID3s I doubt they will give you top dollar in 3 years.
I’m personally unsure whether I will buy out my PCP because I think the depreciation risk might be too high.
I think they are all fair considerations, and time will tell.

Personally, I think the industry is struggling to find a breakthrough way for these cars to be financed easily for joe public, I remember when PCP came along and it was a wow moment for buyers and sellers alike.

Maybe leasing/car schemes are the way ahead, but that’s probably still beyond the initial life of an ID.3.

Let’s face it, no new cars are exactly cheap, and can’t see that changing quickly.
 

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Nissan LEAF30
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Will EV prices drop more towards ICE prices as they become more mainstream? (Yes)
Not sure that is true, ICE are getting taxed into becoming PHEVs at similar costs to BEVs. I suspect that they will meet in the middle or more towards the cost of low spec BEVs.
Answering the OPs question, I'm of the 50% of current cost after 3 years opinion but question what the current cost is. From next year the effect of EU carbon offset will probably disappear and the PICG likely also, so I expect new ID3 prices to rise to closer to the price list and hence the price to be 50% of that, hence the £17k figure (50% of £35k rather than of £29k).
 

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It is very difficult to predict future values of any EV as we really don't know what will happen over next 3 years.

It is possible that price of new cars won't drop much and PICG will disappear, so used values will remain strong.

Alternatively, it is feasible that huge increases in volume will result in price of EVs dropping substantially, so used prices tumble.

Another risk is demand for EVs doesn't match supply. To meet emissions targets in 2023 manufacturers will have to sell a lot of EVs and if people don't really want them massive discounts will be necessary.

My view is buying cash, loan or HP is a big risk today. PCP is OK provided you assume GFV is what it will be worth and plan to just give back. If values are higher, treat it as a bonus. Personally, I went PCH for 2 years as I was sure cheapest option and a lot will change even by 2022.
 

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Over the last 6 years EV's have modestly risen in price. At the same time the size of the batteries have doubled. At some point battery sizes will stabilise then prices will fall. It'll be interesting to see which size battery ID.3 sells the best.
 

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2020 VW ID3 Life 58kWh
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I'm not too concerned about depreciation I'm looking to keep ours for at least 10 years, using some man maths I worked out it would break even in about 7 years compared to keeping our ICE car and replacing it when it got past 10 years old.

I'm well aware battery tech etc will have moved on a lot in 10 years time but apart from trips where we can't charge at our destination I can't imagine I'd need/want a car with more than 200 miles range before charging as I can't physically drive that far before needing to stop.
 

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ID3 1st & e-Golf
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My view is buying cash, loan or HP is a big risk today. PCP is OK provided you assume GFV is what it will be worth and plan to just give back. If values are higher, treat it as a bonus. Personally, I went PCH for 2 years as I was sure cheapest option and a lot will change even by 2022.
Buying cash has worked well with our EVs so far, costs have been less than the fuel would be in an ice, but that has to do with when I've bought, buying when there's a deal available. Owning has given the flexibility to sell when I want, useful during lockdown when I decided to ditch the loan and before the Niro started to lose too much.
A pcp wouldn't have been cheaper as there would have been a higher interest rate and it would have been harder to get out of the deal.
PCP does mean that if the bottom drops out of the market you are covered, but EVs are here to stay and they're unlikely to become cheaper than ice in the next 2-3 years. It's offers slight protection, but only against a major price reduction. PCH/lease make more sense as its a set cost, but my last 4 years motoring would have been much more expensive if I'd gone for either of those options.

The most important thing in keeping the depreciation low is how much the car costs to buy in the first place. A good price, such as the ID3 deals at the moment, has to help keep the overall cost down. If that's reflected in a lease then great, but the deals on the ID3 at the moment are all on PCP with a high interest rate to get a good chunk of the discount back. Paying the pcp off quickly and getting a cheaper loan is still the least expensive option.
 

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Buying cash has worked well with our EVs so far, costs have been less than the fuel would be in an ice, but that has to do with when I've bought, buying when there's a deal available
Agreed, I quickly paid off PCP (taken for best deal) on my ZE40 and it was incredibly cheap to run for just over 2 years. Values did drop just as I was selling, but overall it cost far less than a similar ICE, let alone an ICE I would drive (I wouldn't drive a Clio for example).

However, there was no way I was paying over £27K of my cash (or loan) for a ZE50. It is entirely feasible that by 2023 a similar car new will be substantially cheaper as the market is now moving far quicker. The past is no guide to the future - IMO.

I agree that buying an ID3 cash with the huge discounts available right now is a low risk, but with high prices and modest discounts on most others, I think there is a risk of substantial depreciation. That is fine if someone is buying for long term ownership as it doesn't matter unless you sell it.

Anyway, each to their own and we can come back in 2022 when my lease runs out and again in 2023 to reflect on how things have worked out.
 
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