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Which of these do you expect to be doing well in 2030?

  • Toyota

    Votes: 6 5.8%
  • Volkswagen Group (Audi, SEAT, Skoda ect.)

    Votes: 77 74.8%
  • Hyundai Group (Kia)

    Votes: 64 62.1%
  • General Motors (Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC ect.)

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Ford

    Votes: 8 7.8%
  • Stellantis (Fiat, Citroën, Peugeot, Vauxhall, Jeep, Dodge ect.)

    Votes: 13 12.6%
  • BMW

    Votes: 14 13.6%
  • Daimler/Mercedes-Benz

    Votes: 10 9.7%
  • Renault-Nissan Alliance (Dacia)

    Votes: 21 20.4%
  • Honda

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Geely (Volvo)

    Votes: 20 19.4%
  • SAIC (MG)

    Votes: 28 27.2%
  • Suzuki

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tata Motors (Jaguar, Land Rover)

    Votes: 3 2.9%
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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
With many of the legacy auto manufactures finally now committing to changing their direction towards electric vehicles while others seem to be slow or stubborn to make the change.

I thought it would be interesting to try to look 9 years into the future and see where these major companies may look then.

Which do we think the future is looking the brightest for?

You can vote for up to your top 4 or just your top 1 or 2 if you wish.

I'm defining best and worst in relation to a percentage of their market share between now and 2030. So it is based on if you think the company will grow or shrink by 2030 in relation to the rest of the market.


Feel free to use your own definition but that's the one I'm using. For example, if you think in 2030 Toyota (the largest manufacturer by production volume today) will have a significantly smaller market share by 2030, then they may deserve one of your votes in the worst poll. But if you think they'll be producing and selling more vehicles in 2030 with a greater or similar market share then consider them with one of your votes in this poll.
 

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Zoe Devotee
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As an MG owner I've voted MG on the basis they didn't really have much in the way of ICE engine development, and are mostly in a push to EV with a little side line in PHEV. If they can succeed in their current push, and that will require them to be stand up and be a bit more honest about their pack capacity going forward, I can see them doing well as they are not currently shackled with a long standing ICE trade like some of the big firms. The fact they have no Diesel in any of their line up probably helps their case too.
 
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gotta go for VAG. Their software isn’t great but their underlying manufacturing capability is strong, their initial cars are efficient, and their price ranges cover a good spread from skoda through to Audi/Porsche). Software catchup is doable in the next few years
 

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Hopefully, at least half of them will have gone out of business as people across the world, not just in the UK, realise that car ownership isn't aspirational, or a status symbol.
Even now, let alone in 10 years time there is very little need to own a car yourself if you live and work in the same city/town which applies to the majority of people.
Unless hydrogen becomes a thing, Toyota as a car maker are doomed, while many of the manufacturers of cheaper cars, many already suffering losses before the pandemic hit, will be nervously looking at their balance sheets and wondering whether they will be here in 10 years time. Ideally, we could do with half the legacy manufacturers either going bust or pivoting their business into sectors that are smaller, but profitable. My thinking is that those that focus on their core markets eg Mercedes, Jaguar and BMW, who have a reputation for building luxury models will still be with us, but the vast majority of the rest will be gone.
However, that does afford the opportunity for manufacturers from the Far East, especially China to grow a significant market share both in the UK, but also Europe and the United States if they have the desire and financial resources to do so.
Whatever happens, I think the days of peak motorcar are behind us. There will be no return to driving everywhere, as more people work from home, online deliveries continue to grow at a pace and people realise that they get greater enjoyment from actually doing things, than from consumerism for consumptions sake.
 

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Kind of already happening isn’t it? Consolidation of brands under the same umbrella and sharing platforms, and others being bought out and using the brand to badge cheaper cars (like MG)

at some point the cost of making a Citroen becomes a marketing expense if it’s a rebadged Peugeot and some may slowly just fade away quietly as volumes drop and manufacturers nudge old buyers to their sister brands
 

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Define "best"?

I'm sorry but it is extremely difficult to imagine VAG or even Toyota as currently manufacturing close to 11M cars per year not being on top. As if any of those disappear, I think we will have much bigger problems than driving our EVs.

If you are looking for changes, it is possible that Chinese will grow, as their domestic market is huge.

So, as I said, define what you are looking for here?
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 · (Edited)
Define "best"?

I'm sorry but it is extremely difficult to imagine VAG or even Toyota as currently manufacturing close to 11M cars per year not being on top. As if any of those disappear, I think we will have much bigger problems than driving our EVs.

If you are looking for changes, it is possible that Chinese will grow, as their domestic market is huge.

So, as I said, define what you are looking for here?
I've created another thread with a poll for which we think will be doing the worst in 2030 in relation to today.

Fair question Todor, I'm defining best and worst in relation to a percentage of their market share between now and 2030.

This is what I've said in the other thread.
Feel free to use your own definition but that's the one I'm using. For example, if you think in 2030 Toyota (the largest manufacturer by production volume today) will have a significantly smaller market share by 2030, then they may deserve one of your votes in the worst poll. But if you think they'll be producing and selling more vehicles in 2030 with a greater or similar market share then consider them with one of your votes in this poll.

Sorry if I've made this more complicated than needs be, I was trying to keep it really simple.
 

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I’ve voted for two. VAG group have invested heavily, and coupled with the fact they are considered a desirable brand by many, I think they stand to do very well.

I’ve voted for Toyota too. I know this sounds mad given their current position with lack of EV’s, but they are massive, a sleeping giant. I don’t think they are sleeping in the background though, we just dont know what is up their sleeve yet. Their first offerings in the next few years will probably be unremarkable to get something out there (think Lexus UX) but I think by 2030 they will be in a different place. They also produce very reliable cars. They won’t launch something until it is proven to be bang on. Contrast this with say MG or VAG who are almost beta testing with their customers with their EV’s or software (not meant as a criticism, just a different approach). Look at say the new RAV4 PHEV. Silly money but now Toyota have finally launched an SUV PHEV (how long has the Outlander been out by contrast) the performance and range are excellent compared to most PHEV’s and certainly any PHEV of that size.

I’m still hoping that in 2030 I will be driving a Toyota SUV EV rather than a VAG one.
 

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Journeyman Human
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Although the poll doesn't allow for it, I fully expect Tesla to be the largest car manufacturer by 2030.

I expect VW group, and Chinese manufacturers to still be here with them. About 50% tp 70% of the rest will either be gone, or merged into larger groups for survival.

People generally don't yet fully understand what's about to happen to the ICE car over the next decade. ;)
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Although the poll doesn't allow for it, I fully expect Tesla to be the largest car manufacturer by 2030.

I expect VW group, and Chinese manufacturers to still be here with them. About 50% tp 70% of the rest will either be gone, or merged into larger groups for survival.

People generally don't yet fully understand what's about to happen to the ICE car over the next decade. ;)
This is a poll just for the legacy automakers, the ones who have to transition from ICE to electric. Obviously, the growth of companies like Tesla, Xpeng, BYD, Nio ect will outstrip probably all of these companies as they don't have the burden of an internal combustion legacy.
 

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I’m not convinced ICE manufacturers will be outstripped by the likes of Tesla

many non-Tesla EVs are already pretty efficient and manufacturers are used to shared platforms and building out similar for EVs. IMO they’ll be able to ramp production better than Tesla etc will be able to, which may be critica as countries push for a transition to EV for new car sales.
 

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Kia e-Niro 4 MY20, Zoe Z.E.50 GT Line
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Although the poll doesn't allow for it, I fully expect Tesla to be the largest car manufacturer by 2030.

I expect VW group, and Chinese manufacturers to still be here with them. About 50% tp 70% of the rest will either be gone, or merged into larger groups for survival.

People generally don't yet fully understand what's about to happen to the ICE car over the next decade. ;)
It's certainly going to be interesting isn't it. I think it remains to be seen whether scale and breadth, thinking Stellantis, is a positive or a negative. Is a group like that just weighed down by lots of legacy investment. I don't see Tesla picking up that much of the industry. The cars just don't seem to be good enough. We also don't really know whether the likes of Hyundai/Kia, having proven they can make very good EVs, are able to pivot into just EVs or whether legacy thinking holds things back.

VW appear to be in a really strong position but there's apparently been remarkable political infighting there. It's still possible for them to royally screw it up. They're big, and they've invested big into EV, but that scale could work against them if they get it wrong.
 

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Although the poll doesn't allow for it, I fully expect Tesla to be the largest car manufacturer by 2030.

I expect VW group, and Chinese manufacturers to still be here with them. About 50% tp 70% of the rest will either be gone, or merged into larger groups for survival.

People generally don't yet fully understand what's about to happen to the ICE car over the next decade. ;)
Interesting. I used to think so too until 6 months ago. But I feel their advantages are fading. It is only an opinion of course but here are my considerations:
  • I do not think their FSD solution is the best, and I am skeptical as to the feasibility of FSD in general, except for geofenced parts
  • They do not have flexible platforms, so development of new models costs them a lot of time and money. Comparre VW that are issuing dozens of models over the coming years
  • The philopsphy of Tesla is very much oriented towards early adopters. I believe the general public does not like the concept of an all-in-one display and no physica controls
  • Too many build issues and no proper service infrastructure to allow support on millions of cars on the road
  • The battery and drivetrain advantage is fading with respect to some competitors. Hyundai / Kia have a very good solution with the GMP platform and battery factories are being built across the globe. Tesla doesn't even do LFP (sourced from China) which is a promising technology for cheap, durable batteries and other technologies will come up that will be hard for Tesla to keep up with (Quantumscape, Storedot etc)
I wish Tesla all the best and they are truly marking the way still. But I would not bet on them to be a leader 10 years from now.
 

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Any manufacturer that doesn't have a skateboard, rear motor drive, liquid cooled battery design is doomed in my opinion. This is the best design for electric cars as you don't have the weight over the front wheels anymore and why front wheel drive EV's are so easy to wheel spin. This is why I voted for VW & Hyudai.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
I’m not convinced ICE manufacturers will be outstripped by the likes of Tesla

many non-Tesla EVs are already pretty efficient and manufacturers are used to shared platforms and building out similar for EVs. IMO they’ll be able to ramp production better than Tesla etc will be able to, which may be critica as countries push for a transition to EV for new car sales.
In terms of growth, I don't think there's any question, but I agree there are some major scaling that would need to happen for any of the new pure Electric companies to become as big as the biggest ICE manufacturers, 2030 may be too soon for that.

However, the hurdles for those legacy ICE companies seem even greater that they can hold on to their market share into the next decade, even the most successful may have to concede some to the new unburdened fully electric car companies.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Interesting. I used to think so too until 6 months ago. But I feel their advantages are fading. It is only an opinion of course but here are my considerations:
  • I do not think their FSD solution is the best, and I am skeptical as to the feasibility of FSD in general, except for geofenced parts
  • They do not have flexible platforms, so development of new models costs them a lot of time and money. Comparre VW that are issuing dozens of models over the coming years
  • The philopsphy of Tesla is very much oriented towards early adopters. I believe the general public does not like the concept of an all-in-one display and no physica controls
  • Too many build issues and no proper service infrastructure to allow support on millions of cars on the road
  • The battery and drivetrain advantage is fading with respect to some competitors. Hyundai / Kia have a very good solution with the GMP platform and battery factories are being built across the globe. Tesla doesn't even do LFP (sourced from China) which is a promising technology for cheap, durable batteries and other technologies will come up that will be hard for Tesla to keep up with (Quantumscape, Storedot etc)
I wish Tesla all the best and they are truly marking the way still. But I would not bet on them to be a leader 10 years from now.
Just want to pick you up on that point one about LFP and battery technology.
Pretty sure they do actually.

Also they're creating their own batteries and seem far further along in that process than any other.

The new cars being produced at the Germany factory due to be starting production this summer will be using these new structural battery packs. Having done quite a bit of research into their battery day reveal and since then I can see this being quite a key advantage for at least a few more years to come.
 

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When VW have gone into the bicycle industry you know the dominance of the motor car is coming to an end.

142464


These are now in manufacture and available to buy in Germany.
Forget about getting your internet shopping delivered by vans, last mile logistics will become huge and e-cargobikes will lead the charge.
 

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Just want to pick you up on that point one about LFP and battery technology.
Pretty sure they do actually.

Also they're creating their own batteries and seem far further along in that process than any other.

The new cars being produced at the Germany factory due to be starting production this summer will be using these new structural battery packs. Having done quite a bit of research into their battery day reveal and since then I can see this being quite a key advantage for at least a few more years to come.
I agree that they still have a drivetrain / battery advantage for a couple of more years. But VW are not resting on their laurels and their Battery Power day promised some bug stuff. Hyundai / Kia are introducing 800 volt charging in a non-premium car. And there's loads of battery technology being developed by OEMs that Tesla can't possibly keep up with. The 4680 battery is a very smart piece of engineering, but chemically it's not earth-shattering. So I believe that 3 years from now the field will technicallty be a lot more level with Tesla leading in some areas, but probably lagging in others.
 

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I still think (hope?) Toyota has something up its sleeve with solid state batteries. It is the only explanation, I feel, (apart from hydrogen?) for why they have been so incredibly slow to market with true EVs even though they have been market leaders with their hybrid tech for 2 decades and which they licence out to companies like Porsche to put in their cars.
Chinese manufacturers also working on solid state batteries and I would not bet against any Chinese company becoming one of the world's biggest in 15-20 years. Just look at TVs and other consumer electronics. Dominated by the Japanese 10-20 years ago but now they cannot compete with Chinese brands which do very similar or even better for far less cost.
 
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