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Which of these do you expect to be doing well in 2030?

  • Toyota

    Votes: 6 6.0%
  • Volkswagen Group (Audi, SEAT, Skoda ect.)

    Votes: 76 76.0%
  • Hyundai Group (Kia)

    Votes: 63 63.0%
  • General Motors (Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC ect.)

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Ford

    Votes: 8 8.0%
  • Stellantis (Fiat, Citroën, Peugeot, Vauxhall, Jeep, Dodge ect.)

    Votes: 13 13.0%
  • BMW

    Votes: 14 14.0%
  • Daimler/Mercedes-Benz

    Votes: 10 10.0%
  • Renault-Nissan Alliance (Dacia)

    Votes: 21 21.0%
  • Honda

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Geely (Volvo)

    Votes: 20 20.0%
  • SAIC (MG)

    Votes: 26 26.0%
  • Suzuki

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tata Motors (Jaguar, Land Rover)

    Votes: 3 3.0%
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Impossible to predict because we just dont know how fast the technology will develop. Let’s suppose energy density of batteries doubles over ten years. So you have a car that is far simpler to build with a battery half the size that could outlive the car. It’s a big investment to mass produce cars but with the simpler designs you could have many manufacturers supplying niche markets. Something like a Smart car with a 50 mile range could be built very cheaply outside of the mainstream. Suddenly the chassis designs of the big manufacturers is all wrong because the battery sizes and weights have halved.
 

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Really? You plucked that one out of the air didnt you? They're not even in the top 10.
By current market value of shares.

Gonna be interesting to see how TSLA holds up as the Koreans, Chinese, and Europeans come online with increasingly competetive BEVs.

Can only be good for EV adoption overall.
 

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Impossible to predict because we just dont know how fast the technology will develop. Let’s suppose energy density of batteries doubles over ten years. So you have a car that is far simpler to build with a battery half the size that could outlive the car. It’s a big investment to mass produce cars but with the simpler designs you could have many manufacturers supplying niche markets. Something like a Smart car with a 50 mile range could be built very cheaply outside of the mainstream. Suddenly the chassis designs of the big manufacturers is all wrong because the battery sizes and weights have halved.
In the last 10 years, that did happen, more or less. The original Nissan Leaf had a 24 kWh battery, and the standard Gen 2 pack is 40 kWh, in the same space. The 62 kWh pack is not that much bigger.

I'm not sure it will happen again, as the pace of change seems to be slowing somewhat, but who knows, with the huge amounts of money in play? If so, it isn't something that'll happen overnight: it'll be gradual, and the benefits will be split:
  • Part to making cars smaller & lighter.
  • Part to giving them a longer range.

Even if a manufacturer were caught napping, they would use the extra space to offer higher range, or just fill the space with something light and cheap. Not ideal, but they can still sell that car.

The Smart car is just about the most disappointing EV currently on sale. I don't think there's much of a market even in 2021 for a 50 mile range EV unless it is really cheap. In 10 years time, no way. Three figures or forget it.

Kind regards
- Garry
 

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By current market value of shares.
I think it is called "market cap". You also have to consider that Tesla is not a car company but a technology company.

As I think Ford CEO put it "people buy Tesla car's, which just happen to be electric". I would extend it further, that people are buying the technology, i.e. IPad, which just happens to be on 4 wheels.
 

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Really? You plucked that one out of the air didnt you? They're not even in the top 10.
I know it's difficult for those with IQ's under 100 to grasp, so i found a pretty video with added pictures of cars to help you understand, never bring production numbers to a market cap fight. ;)

 

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Amazing how the top 2 for most of that - Toyota and VW - trashed themselves. VW with their dieselgate criminality. Toyota with the even worse long term disasters of EV-hindering, hybrid-clinging and hydrogen flirtation - plus the "self charging" silliness which has made them a joke.
 

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You said "biggest car manufacturer". By normal definitions, when talking about "largest manufacturer of widget X", you use market share.

That means the company building the most cars, not the company with the biggest market cap.

Apple is not the "biggest laptop manufacturer" just because it happens to make laptops and has a huge market cap.
 

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You said "biggest car manufacturer". By normal definitions, when talking about "largest manufacturer of widget X", you use market share.

That means the company building the most cars, not the company with the biggest market cap.

Apple is not the "biggest laptop manufacturer" just because it happens to make laptops and has a huge market cap.
Buy Market cap, sure, Apple is the biggest laptop making company in the world ? If you were asked which is the biggest mobile phone company in the world , who would you name?
 

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By Market cap, sure, Apple is the biggest laptop making company in the world ?
I think the point here is that market cap is not the only way to measure the size of a company. There are lots of others like volume of sales, turnover or number of employees.
If you were asked which is the biggest mobile phone company in the world , who would you name?
You see, that's a different question. There may be more iPhones sold than any other single brand, and volume of sales is the first metric I'd think of for that.
 

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I think the point here is that market cap is not the only way to measure the size of a company. There are lots of others like volume of sales, turnover or number of employees.

You see, that's a different question. There may be more iPhones sold than any other single brand, and volume of sales is the first metric I'd think of for that.
I disagree, i would say Samsung sell a lot more handsets than Apple iphones, as they are cheaper overall, but if i was asked what is the biggest mobile phone company in the world , i would say "Apple" everytime , until Samsung had a bigger market cap than Apple.
 

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Samsung are indeed the biggest phone manufacturer.

Lenovo are the biggest computer manufacturer

Toyota are the biggest car manufacturer

Even business/trade press would use and name those companies. No-one in the tech or business press would state Apple is the biggest computer manufacturer.

Manufacturing businesses are always categorised by market share.

I mean, a company might not even have a market cap (ie not be publicly traded) and could still hold a number 1 market position.
 

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I've changed my vote to include Ford. My list is now Ford, Geely and SAIC.

Why? Ford now has two compelling BEVs. The F-150 Lightning may just end up saving Ford.

SAIC's MG 5 Long Range is the current leader in the £ / range. It is hard to ignore a "250 mile" £26,495 BEV. It is an estate too, a segment they have to themselves. They are already selling the facelift version in the EU and China.

Geely's Polestar 2 is a very nice car . Probably the best competitor the Model 3 has so far. Geely has a very diverse model and brand range. In the UK/EU they have Volvo, LEVC (London Taxi and VN5 Van), Lotus, and Polestar. Lynk & Co, which is currently in the EU but not UK is one to watch. Outside of EU/UK they have another 4 or 5 brands.
 

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Discussion Starter · #55 ·
Starting to doubt Volkswagen a little bit now, failure to penetrate the lucrative Chinese market is going to be a bit worry for them and I can't help feel like they've slightly missed the mark with both the ID3 and ID4, they could have been game-changers but the longer they've been out the less they seem to have been.
Just to qualify that post. 1 week later Volkswagen are saying unless they adapt they may have to cut 30,000 jobs.


The headline may be more alarming than the truth right now but it's a company who perhaps is losing market share at the moment rather than gaining it, otherwise, they wouldn't need to so alarmed.
 

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Discussion Starter · #57 · (Edited)
Can I vote for BYD?
I know BYD have made some non-electric vehicles but they're by far and away primarily an EV company and not a legacy auto-maker like the others on the list who have to make the tough transition away from making internal combustion engine cars (which is what their entire business has been based upon for several decades), to switching to a completely electric line up.


I tried to make this clear in my original post but I think it's been missed.

BYD, Tesla, Xpeng, Nio, Lucid, Li Auto ect ect are not on this list because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain and will likely succeed because of that. The legacy automakers have everything to lose and some will likely go out of business completely
 

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I know BYD have made some non-electric vehicles but they're by far and away primarily an EV company and not a legacy auto-maker like the others on the list who have to make the tough transition away from making internal combustion engine cars (which is what their entire business has been based upon for several decades), to switching to a completely electric line up.


I tried to make this clear in my original post but I think it's been missed.

BYD, Tesla, Xpeng, Nio, Lucid, Li Auto ect ect are not on this list because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain and will likely succeed because of that. The legacy automakers have everything to lose and some will likely go out of business completely
Appreciate it’s your poll and your rules. Saying that Tesla has nothing to lose is counterintuitive to me. However much they protest otherwise, a significant division of the company is now a major motor manufacturer with committed investment pipelines and debt predicated on succeeding with their sales plans. If Tesla sales starting tailing off tomorrow, they’d have an awful lot to lose.
 

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Discussion Starter · #59 ·
Appreciate it’s your poll and your rules. Saying that Tesla has nothing to lose is counterintuitive to me. However much they protest otherwise, a significant division of the company is now a major motor manufacturer with committed investment pipelines and debt predicated on succeeding with their sales plans. If Tesla sales starting tailing off tomorrow, they’d have an awful lot to lose.
Well it's about market share, I suppose now they have a bit to lose, but a couple of years ago, or before the Model 3 they didn't. Their market share was nothing compared to all the companies in this poll.

But regardless the poll is about legacy automakers, on the evidence we have now which ones will be doing the best in 2030 when they'll need to stop producing the cars that have been paying their bills for the past 100 years.
 

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SAIC's MG 5 Long Range is the current leader in the £ / range. It is hard to ignore a "250 mile" £26,495 BEV. It is an estate too, a segment they have to themselves. They are already selling the facelift version in the EU and China.
And for many buyers you can get one from just under £23k via Affinity (dealer discounts available if not an Affinity sale).

The ZS LR (72kWh/273 mile) has been announced with pricing to be released ~1st Nov and deliveries end of the year.

Having been in London this week the number of eNiro is pretty huge - KIA must be delivering like mad now. MG5 I suspect will become the private cabbie's choice pretty quickly.
 
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