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Which of these do you expect to be doing worse in 2030 than now?

  • Toyota

    Votes: 29 56.9%
  • Volkswagen Group (Audi, SEAT, Skoda ect.)

    Votes: 1 2.0%
  • Hyundai Group (Kia)

    Votes: 3 5.9%
  • General Motors (Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC ect.)

    Votes: 15 29.4%
  • Ford

    Votes: 14 27.5%
  • Stellantis (Fiat, Citroën, Peugeot, Vauxhall, Jeep, Dodge ect.)

    Votes: 4 7.8%
  • BMW

    Votes: 5 9.8%
  • Daimler/Mercedes-Benz

    Votes: 7 13.7%
  • Reanault-Nissan Alliance (Dacia)

    Votes: 2 3.9%
  • Honda

    Votes: 18 35.3%
  • Geely (Volvo)

    Votes: 1 2.0%
  • SAIC (MG)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Suzuki

    Votes: 20 39.2%
  • Tata Motors (Jaguar, Land Rover)

    Votes: 9 17.6%
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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Following on from the other poll which was about which of the major legacy companies will do well.

I thought it would be interesting to vote on the ones who have the least bright future ahead of them based on what we know about them now.

I'm defining best and worst in relation to a percentage of their market share between now and 2030.

Feel free to use your own definition but that's the one I'm using. For example, if you think in 2030 Toyota (the largest manufacturer by production volume today) will have a significantly smaller market share by 2030, then they may deserve one of your votes in this poll.

Conversely if for example, you think they would have a significantly larger market share by 2030 then on the poll in the other thread, you may think they deserve one of your votes.

You have up to 4 votes once again.
 

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Suzuki or Toyota (maybe Subaru?) without partnership or significant movement soon they may not be able to react. Will Toyota stick their fingers in their ears until it’s too late to keep pushing hydrogen?
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Interesting that Mercedes got a vote, but none for BMW yet.

I think Mercedes' roadmap is more towards a fully electric line up sooner than BMW's isn't it?

Not sure either of them are going about it the right way yet but out of the two I'd probably say Mercedes has a slight lead on BMW.
 

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It has got to be Toyota. They have been ignoring battery electric cars and going down what I think is a blind alley for now with their hydrogen cars. They may be right about hydrogen in the long term but with no hydrogen infrastructure there seems no hope for them now.

I do think that it is very odd that Toyota have just stalled when it comes to electric cars after all the innovation they showed with their hybrids 20 or more years ago. For one of the biggest car companies in the world to just drop the ball like this seems really strange. Maybe it is because they never used to be innovative before their hybrids and concentrated on making mass market boring cars that were very well put together and reliable.
 

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VW eGolf
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I think the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance is in real trouble. Big EV early mover advantage eroded away, and going through a chaotic, expensive, distracting restructure after Ghosn's exit. They'll be chasing easy ICE profits over doing the kind of investment that the likes of VW are.
 

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Nissan LEAF30
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Toyota played a very long game with the "self-charging" hybrids which have only recently become profitable. And whilst we may be convinced about EVs they still represent a very low % of the global market in car sales, so the legacy manufacturers have plenty of time to buy in the technology.
Another thing to look at is the significance of the new programming language being used by VAG to replace CAN Bus. This may either be a strategic masterpiece or a disaster - the jury is out whilst the reputational damage of the travails of early ID3 owners is limited to enthusiast forums like this one.
 

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Zoe GT Line 2020
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I worry about Honda - as good as the E is reputed to be there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm to increase their range (in both senses)
Similarly Ford, the Mach-E looks great, but are they ever going to build a mainstream EV?
 

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Honda seem to have been in retreat for some time - still expensive but quality not keeping up.

Toyota has such a big share in the world that it's quite possible they will lose a bit, but those who write them off are just bonkers - most of the world will still be on dino-juice well beyond our 2030 'cut-off' (which isn't really one anyway). Their hybrids already run in EV mode a lot of the time, so they have plenty of experience with the drives and batteries. When the world markets are ripe I think they'll pop BEVs out with no problem.
 

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Similarly Ford, the Mach-E looks great, but are they ever going to build a mainstream EV?
F-150 EV pickup is a year out. The F-150 is the best selling vehicle in the US with an annual volume around 900,000 units.


Not many details yet, but I suspect it will have an inverter to allow power out. The current F-150 has optional 7.2kW power outlets.



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Zoe GT Line 2020
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Maybe I should have added "in Europe" :)
An electric Fiesta equivalent for a similar price would be a capitalised Big Thing
 

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Maybe I should have added "in Europe" :)
An electric Fiesta equivalent for a similar price would be a capitalised Big Thing
Europe doesn't matter.

Ford sell somewhere around 900,000 F-150s in the USA every year. Fiesta for all of EU is more like 200,000.
 

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Zoe GT Line 2020
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But what are the implications for Ford, or indeed any other manufacturer, of not having a full range of EVs in Europe by 2030?

I assume they will, but at the moment I haven't seen any indications of any plans. I could be, and indeed often am, wrong though :)
 

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But what are the implications for Ford, or indeed any other manufacturer, of not having a full range of EVs in Europe by 2030?
They become the next GM.

Already happened to FCA, who had already absorbed Chrysler. *(Dodge and Jeep)
 

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MB and BMW are gonna go down the toilet if they don't make serious changes fast. VW will stomp them into the ground, probably end up with a merger or take over of at least one.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
My top 2 in terms of having the least confidence in their growth over the next 9 years are Toyota and Honda.

Mr Toyoda has made it clear what he thinks of electric vehicles and he doesn't like them. Toyota Boss Warns That The Electric Vehicle Shift May Cause Big Problems

They will lose ground simply because they're being slow and resistant, people who would have bought Toyota's will get full electric alternatives in the coming years. Maybe by 2030 they will have caught up, but the damage will have been done.

Honda also, both these companies make excellent internal combustion engines so the last thing they want is all society to shun them and stop buying them. This resistance to change may be the death of Honda as we know it.

BMW also fit into the fact that the love for their engines made them slow to throw them out completely in their roadmap. They seem more welcome to change but want to cling on to the old with PHEVs. I think slowly they're getting the message, but they're already playing catch up and the full EVs they've announced are not going to be price competitive with a lot of the competition.
 
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